Featured Tesla loses the race for mainstream EVs to GM

i suppose the o/p's intent (or forbes) was to show that gm beat tesla to the punch with a low priced bev. but anyone can make an announcement, it's sales numbers that count.

the article is promoting gm over tesla for whatever reason, (forbes? stock market?) with no regard to acceptance, and market penetration

 

The only car company on that list was Fisker.

I've seen the new Bolt EV and EUV on the road. People are buying the higher sticker priced 2022's. A lower price for the 2023's isn't going to hurt sales. It is a question of whether GM has the supplies to make the cars in higher than Prius Prime numbers.

Not sure what the article is promoting. The Bolt may not be available at the dealer past 2025, and the Equinox and Blazer EV pricing seems in line with their competitors.

 

I suspect Bob was referring to the $11 Billion loss the government took on the value of the GM stock it took in trade for a $50 Billion bailout amount.
U.S. government says it lost $11.2 billion on GM bailout | Reuters

While GM did, in fact, pay of the "loan" portion, the Government took a bath on the stock.

 

He said defaulted loans.
These are the companies referred to in the article he quoted.
Obama's alternative energy bankruptcies

 

I agree, that loss wasn't a defaulted loan. I suspect, since the government took a loss just as if it had been a loan, that is what he meant.

 

If you had been reading more than headlines you would know that Musk had been talking about getting rid of the radar for a year or more before that

Mike

 

Tesla federal incentives ended in 2019.
Some states, CA included, have some smaller and more restrictive incentives but they are far less than the federal incentives for other car makers -- all except GM, I think who also used up their 200K units.

Mike

 

i think i've been hearing the 'just wait a year or two to see if tesla can keep up sales' mantra for about 10 years.
same with the stock

 

So... What has changed in recent years that might threaten Tesla? Maybe it's the fact that sales have been slowed by the pandemic, so sales figures for the last two years may not be representative of future performance.
But what else might threaten Tesla sales? Might it be the emergence of BEV factories all over the world? Might it be the huge number of Musk claims that have fallen through? Maybe the canceled and delayed projects will cause new buyers to look elsewhere. How will the Tesla pickup do against the Ford Lightening when the Tesla model is finally introduced at some unknown time in the future. Will the lack of a "non luxury" entry level car leave Tesla without a customer base once the real luxury cars introduce their offerings?
Personally, I see the foreign imports as being the downfall of Tesla. A cheap import from China using technology copied from the Tesla factory may be a show stopper.

 

China has looser safety laws than the US or Europe, so a lot of cars can sell there but not in other places.

The article from the first post seems to indicate that lower cost electric cars will lead the way to market dominance, but thus far, that has not been the case. How many people bought a Chevy Spark or electric Smart car? These were cheap electric cars but they lacked value.

In general, most car buyers will want comparable or better features (range, charge time, acceleration, reliability, amenities, etc) in electric cars before they will be willing to spend more to buy one over gasoline models, and electric cars are likely to stay, on average, more expensive to buy than gasoline cars for the next several years.

With that said, it’s also difficult to gauge the car market right now, since pretty much every auto maker is held up on supply factors and there is a pent up demand for more cars in general. By 2024-2025, hopefully the supply chain issues will be resolved so we can have a better perspective on where the car market is going.

 

In 2019 Tesla sold about 365K vehicles up 50% from a year earlier. In 2022 Tesla is expected to grow another 50% to 1.5 M vehicles. Q2 sales were slowed by covid in Shanghai where the Chinese factory is located. With Austin and Berlin now ramping production that hiccup looks short term. Toyota sold 9.7M in 2019 in fiscal year 2022 (ended 3/2022) it sold 9.5M. Toyota profit actually increased because of selling a more profitable mix of vehicles. A good result, but flat sales versus rapid growth. Reporting years do not line up, but that is the ball park.

Past results can not be used to promise future ones. Tesla could easily stumble. But profit margins are high and the new incentives mean Tesla is no longer penalized with other companies earning incentives with Tesla & GM without them.

 

Culturally I would define Teslas as mainstream. The brand has penetrated the psyche of the masses well enough that if you asked a bunch of random people on the street to name an electric vehicle I think “Tesla” would be the first response you’d get most of the time. But when you factor in how low EV adoption remains in the US—under 10%, and possibly under 5% driving an all electric vehicle—Tesla and EVs in general are not mainstream at all.

 

The Spark and smart EVs weren't lower cost. They were still real expensive compared to their ICE counterparts with sub 100 mile ranges. The Spark EV was almost double the Spark ICE's $13k price. The current Bolt is about $5000 more than its closest ICE sibling, which puts it at about the same price as the Spark EV was. In addition, it has over triple the Sparks EV's EPA range.

The 2023 Bolt EV really is the first affordable BEV to the US market. According to Edmunds 5 year TCO for my zip code, the higher MSRP 2022 Bolt is $8000 less than the Trax. Lower gas prices and higher electric fees will shift the difference, but not enough to make the Bolt more expensive to own for most of the country.

Penetrating the market takes more than just having an affordable BEV though. Won't do much good if GM can't make more than 30k a year.

 

Source: https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/ev-sales-hit-new-record-in-q2-2022/

Use the downloaded PDF:



Bob Wilson

 

$50,000 cars is not going to get the majority of the fleet to EVs.

Is Tesla going to deliver on their past promise of an affordable 'Model 2'?
How much competition will it face if it arrives?
Or will they just abandon the segment to others?

Not all the traditional car makers are like Toyota. Ford, GM, and VW have been lining up and securing battery supplies to meet sales growth, and they do have an advantage over Tesla in model development capacity.

 

As I recall, EVs are at about 5% in the USA.
Report: U.S. Has Crossed EV 'Tipping Point' - Kelley Blue Book

Market share is a good measuring stick. We need to be careful though about what requirements we have.

For example, are Vans mainstream?
How about Crossovers, SUVs, Pickup trucks, small cars, midsize cars, large cars or luxury cars?

I found • U.S. car market by vehicle type | Statista very enlightening.

EVs outsold Vans, Large Cars and are very close to the Luxury car market in 2021.
They were at half or better vs small cars, midsize cars and SUVs.

I don’t know what other people’s definition is, just asking questions that may help one inspect their own definition.

I have been driving electric cars for 12 years. For me on a personal level, EVs are very mainstream.

EVs only hit the market ~12 years ago. The growth of EVs, worldwide & in the USA, has been astounding. But since cars are rarely replaced and expensive, it does take awhile for the adoption curve to steepen. Wee seem to be reaching that steep part of the curve.

Which brings up another way to define “mainstream”. Using the Adoption curve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle#/media/FileiffusionOfInnovation.png

By this metric, EVs are in the ‘Early Adopters’ phase. So perhaps, by this definition, EVs reach Mainstream when they get to Early Majority (>16%)
Of course, by that definition hybrids never became “mainstream”. I don’t believe luxury cars or vans ever did other.

 

I would want a lot of those features, but with the capacity of at least the interior from the rear hatch of the Gen4 Prius - and at a price within $10k or so of the Prius. That seems to be so far out there. Perhaps BYD is up to the challenge.

 

that doesn't even include GM costing billions in Superfund toxic waste cleanup that we the taxpayers had to eat.

 

To add some perspective to the discussion of Mainstream vehicles- The Toyota Plant nearby that make the Toyota Camry runs 5 days a week, two shifts, sometimes Saturday.
They produce 1000 cars a shift or 2000 vehicles a day
They produce over 500,000 cars a year.
The vast majority are Toyota Camrys, and the produced amount is still not enough to satisfy the demand.
This is a mainstream car.

That is just one model of the Toyota Brand

The Toyota Plant in Canada is running full tilt trying to meet the demand for the Corolla pushing over 500,000 units per year.

Both the Toyota Canada and US plant have been doing this every day for over 30 years

It is staggering to fully grasp the manufacturing power of these legacy automotive manufacturers and the popularity of these vehicles.

Often at work we would wonder where in the world do all these vehicle go, and we couldn't make enough of them.

Did Tesla Lose a race - who cares?

 

“. . . affordable Model 2”

Other than the slow, 50 kW charging Bolt, the Bolts are quite affordable. Tesla need not make everything.

Bob Wilson