2022 North Atlantic Hurricane season

An eastern Pacific storm has crossed into Gulf of Mexico. It will redevelop (but not to hurricane strength) and rain on S. Florida in coming weekend. I expect this to be the first named storm of N Atl season but not a notable wind event

 

Air Force Reserve hurricane flights have been up, if that's what you mean.

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Named storms in Pacific get renamed if they diminish before entering Atlantic Basin. In this case, Agatha will become Alex if winds increase. A trans-basin 'trans'.

2022 is a La Nina year, with forecasts affected by lower wind shear such years have. However our current 'A' over Gulf of Mexico was inhibited from regrowth by wind shear. This is an example of climate (seasonal) differing from weather (this week).

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For folks at higher latitudes feeling left out, see

Nor'easters rivaling hurricanes as flood thre | EurekAlert!

There are many ways to get wet.

 

@Skylis A , Pac-> Atl crossovers are rare indeed. First place I looked was:

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

From 1995 through 2021 there were none eastwards. In 2016 Otto went the other way (Atl-> Pac). Older track seasonal maps are in:

NHC Data Archive

where Atl-> Pac storms were Diana 1990, Debby 1988, Greta 1978, Fifi 1974, Irene 1971, #10 in 1945, #8 in 1944, and then I stopped looking at earlier years. To anyone, please continue this search if it seems interesting. Back to 1851; the beginning of HURDAT2. (As an aside, old records may miss storms over oceans but not over land. People live on land, and promulgate records).

Scoreboard now stands at eight Atl-> Pac storms from 1944 to 2021 (77 years) and one only Pac-> Atl crossover. That being our current spinner, soon to touch Bermuda.

Crossovers are rare in general because land beneath dissipates wind energy by friction, and poorly supplies new water vapor (fuel). Prevailing winds are westward and (it seems) rarely otherwise.

2022 Agatha/Alex is not a strong event, but its track is rare indeed. If it is truly unique since 1851, clickbaiters are missing a play.

 

"How did Maro Largo fare?"

Mar A Lago had inches of rain and non damaging winds, A fella could look that up. But perhaps our Bob is hoping for much more wind energy and storm surge there - can't imagine why.

If a large Asian country had a 'hurricane gun' as Mr. Mar A Lago imagines, I suppose they would fire it in coming 2 years.

 

Nothing to report about present conditions. But looking back in time, hoo boy:

Blue Holes Show Hurricane Activity in the Bahamas Is at a Centuries-Long Low | Science| Smithsonian Magazine

Indicating that things were much friskier from 1750 to 1850. When ships were wooden and wind powered

Whatever this might imply about climate change as a driver, I see it as a very reliable paleorecord. So there it is. Storms in Bahamas are not a complete record for N Atl, but the area catches a large fraction of them. Besides, its proximity to Florida coast increases local significance.

Sedimentation studies (such as this) do not illuminate what mechanisms were important back then. But one could hope for follow on work on isotope ratios in e.g. clam shells which are pretty good paleothermometers. Water temperature is a big storm driver.

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Flip this around and imagine if conditions of those olden days were to re establish. Florida for real estate or rocket launching? Hoo boy.

 

Humor that was? Look - as we have no information about why 1750 to 1850 was so very hurricane frisky, we cannot anticipate its return. All we have is shorter-term 'looks like there could be a few more' and short-term sea-level rise. Undeniable and unrelenting.

Florida 'land' holders below 2 meters MSL ought to consider their positions. Florida agriculturalists even higher ought to consider if their pumped groundwater might become more salty. If any look to me for help; oh my poor dears...

Rocket launching seems a special case because there is always 'elsewhere' money to cover 'we had no way of knowing' problems. I guess.

 

Half of that property is below 2 meters MSL. Boston Globe gloated on the matter:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/01/13/rising-seas-threaten-jewel-trump-real-estate-empire/bsleB73TesDoLcVxJBK9LP/story.html

 

Readers would have noticed above-average seasonal predictions have not panned out yet. My palantir indicates at least one more week of inactivity.

We are now approaching 'seasonal updates' season, when predictors refine their predictions. Downward this time, I expect.

I thought is was mostly a deficit in low pressure systems twirling out of Africa, but ocean heat content is not currently favorable either:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ocean/ohc/images/ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif