Featured EV Cumulative Sales and EV Registrations diverge further

why not? you can't buy a house in canada anymore

 

All those automakers saying Tesla would never be successful and dismissing the switch to EV as not where the industry is going has led to a situation where they they got caught with their pants down and now are trying to catch up with EV demand without enough R&D and failing terribly...

Meanwhile out here on the west coast a low 100K mile gen2 Prius in good condition is selling for $10K and a low 100K gen3 is selling for $15K. At this rate it's going to be a bloodbath for automakers if there's any additional economic downturns and some major auto makers will cease to exist.

 

I wouldn’t take too much from this.
According to the excel chart, Minnesota had just over 10,000 EV registered in Dec 2020.
According to state data, in Feb 2021 Minnesota had almost 19,000 EVs registered.

As for Bolts, I see them every day. I also have seen a number of Bolt owners that have had their battery packs replaced. I don’t see word of them getting exported en masse.

Edit*****
OK, I see part of the issue.
Some of your sources are defining EVs as BEVs only. Others define EVs as BEVs & PHEVs..

EVs aren’t disappearing, the categorizations are just different from different sources.

 

Autoline After Hours on Thursday will have a GM manager. My question is what is the smallest Ultium pack kWhr given the Bolt did not switch to Ultium packs?

Bob Wilson

 

Pack size isn't why the Bolt didn't switch. The answer to that is development timing and costs.

GM's BEV3 platform, which is tied to the Ultium suite of batteries, motors, and software, was announced at the beginning of 2020. The Bolt is on BEV2, which started with the Spark EV. Development of the gen2 Bolt likely started before work on BEV3. Maybe they could have used BEV3 for the Bolt, but using the older platform means cost savings for what is Chevy's entry level BEV.

There is also the possibility of contractual obligations with LG, who worked heavily with for the Spark EV and Bolt. Ultium batteries might be coming from CATL.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_BEV2_platform
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_BEV3_platform
Chevy Explains Why The New Bolt Won't Get The Ultium Batteries | CarBuzz
Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About GM's Ultium Platform - And More! - CleanTechnica

 

I still want to know their take. The huge Hummer is nearly 3x larger than my 55 kWh Model 3 pack. If GM thinks one huge Hummer is better than three entry cars, I’d like to understand their reasons.

I also want to know if they will follow their ‘letters in body paint’ practice.

Bob Wilson

 

You could ask Tesla the same thing concerning the Cybertruck.

 

The difference here is Tesla perfected an entire line of Tesla cars before they even started to scale that engineering up into a cybertruck and freight hauler models. GM on the other hand canceled the refinement of their successful small EV vehicles and decided to create an EV military-style vehicle before they even built a sustainable supply line and more simple less costly vehicles to ramp up with.

So is it any surprise that they failed horribly when they claimed Hummers would be ready to purchase and drive by Fall of 2021? And now despite 65K preorders, they say it will be at least 2024 before the first Hummer deliveries even begin. That's a*s backwards in every way!

 

Hummer EV pickups are already being delivered, with the 1st in December 2021. Cybertruck was scheduled for late 2021, now pushed back to 2023.

 

When was the Bolt cancelled?

The issue for GM with the Bolt is that much of it is actually LG. So the underlining technology could conceivably leave GM. The same was also true of the Spark EV. That was left to whither in four states because of CAFE regulations.

Ultium is GM's technology suite for BEVs. It is being used on two platforms; the BEV3 for cars, and BT1 for body on frame trucks. The Lyriq is built on BEV3. Then gen3 Bolt could, and likely will, be built of BEV3, or a smaller class derivative, but we have at least 5 years before that car comes out. Before then, the platform will be used for another Caddy, two Chevy's, and a Honda.

Going with Cadilacs first follows Tesla's plan. Turns out making a BEV isn't has easy as everyone thought. VW had some problems with the ID.3. So GM is starting slow instead of going straight with a more mass market model with their first, true BEV platform.

The Hummer EV started out with the pick up, which is a sparsely occupied segment for BEVs currently. Better to go into new segments when available than to complete with others. That's why GM did the Volt. The Hummer EV price means it will be as common as the original Hummer on the roads.

Bob seemed concerned about Hummer EVs being an impractical use of batteries. I'm was pointing out the Cybertruck will be just as wasteful in that regard. Tesla also hasn't stopped sales of the Model S and X in order to have batteries for more 3's and Y's. At this point Tesla can make more BEV units than GM. So not making a Hummer EV may not mean 3 Bolts will be made.

 

Fair call as both the promised Cybertruck and produced Hummer are reported in the 200-250 kWh capacity. This is understandable as both vehicles are reported to be tow capable. GM definitely needs the experience that Tesla has sacculated over the past 10 years.

To compare and contrast, Tesla has four models and in 2021 produced over 930 k EVs. GM will take a while to scale to 2021 Tesla rates. Tesla opening two new factories, Austin and Berlin, means GM may take even longer to have a significant, market impact. Just the early emphasis on Hummer huge packs seems a poor use of what remains a critical resource.

Even today, too many fail to realize a BEV is just one part of a system that includes fast DC chargers and L2 EVSEs needed at work, shops, and homes.

Bob Wilson

 

Which is why I think GM is taking this slow. The market is accepting of low production numbers when a unit is priced over $100k. With their current BEV production capability, GM can't do the production levels that are needed to make entry level BEVs profitable. While GM calls the Bolt's platform BEV2, the car is really made on the ICE platform underpinning the Sonic/Trax. While that means compromises to a BEV's design, it does have the benefit of not requiring extensive factory retooling.

GM also isn't trying to be just a BEV maker. Their goal is to also be a BEV parts supplier. That is really what Ultium is about. The modularity of the motors, wireless BMS, etc. helps not only with lowering GM EV development costs, but makes it easier for others to use. The Honda Prologue slated for 2024 will be using it.

As for the wastefulness of huge battery packs, GM has already prebought so many cells with the Lyriq and Hummer in mind. Those for a Hummer could be shifted to 1.5 to 2 Lyriqs, but the cell's form factor excludes many others from using it. Tesla can't; maybe VW could. And these batteries do have a shelf life, storing them in a warehouse until other models come out will lead to issues. Going further up the supply chain, is making other types of cells an option, or are those factories already maxed out?

The Blazer and Equinox EVs are planned for 2023. These are lower end models of more reasonable size and battery capacity. The Hummer EV is going to sell in the Model X numbers range, maybe. It is not going to have a meaningful the number of the newer models sold.

Worrying about battery supply is pointless handwringing, as the constraint is simply lag in production to demand, not an immediate limitation in a finite resource. Those really concerned should be pushing for PHEVs on the shorter range side, as those will get more plug ins on the road, with lower levels of carbon emissions per capacity of battery made.

 

And to sell those EVs, the dealer network has to make a very significant investment. At a time when many question the long term viability of the whole dealer concept.

Training in sales and service and chargers add up to a heck of a lot of money for smaller dealers. Larger dealers will still have to spend even more but they have more financial resources.

Note the number of Cadillac dealers is dropping. The number of independent small town dealers is dropping.

 

Clarification: the Chevy Volt, a very popular hybrid car was canceled in early 2019.

But the true source of all the automakers current failings began 32 years ago, which they made a film about:

"The film deals with the history of the electric car, its modern development, and commercialization. The film focuses primarily on the General Motors EV1, which was made available for lease mainly in Southern California, after the California Air Resources Board (CARB) passed the zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate in 1990 which required the seven major automobile suppliers in the United States to offer electric vehicles in order to continue sales of their gasoline powered vehicles in California. Nearly 5000 electric cars were designed and manufactured by Chrysler, the Ford Motor Company, General Motors (GM), Honda, Nissan, and Toyota; and then later destroyed or donated to museums and educational institutions. Also discussed are the implications of the events depicted for air pollution, oil dependency, Middle East politics, and global warming." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electric_Car

 

32 years ago? Interesting …

 

Pandering to guys w/ little weenie syndrome ?

.

 

Or… 3 Bolts require more microchips than one Hummer EV?