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Why Full Self Driving is needed

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Jan 30, 2022.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I have the car today with FSD beta and know how it works. I also have access to where the problem occurred. You may not like it but FSD maps the lanes regardless of line markers. You do realize I know how to make a video and post on YouTube, right?

    Bring data and we'll have something besides "trust in God" to discuss.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #41 bwilson4web, Feb 3, 2022
  2. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    What I described, I think, is how the SAE defines level 2 of driving automation which is what Tesla claims their product does. I agree that there is over selling going on. A lot of that is from enthusiastic supporters as well as the company. But many of the negative things you hear just don't match up with what the car actually does or the safety warnings you have to accept.

    Mike
     
    #42 3PriusMike, Feb 3, 2022
  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Autopilot and the systems by many other car companies are Level 2. The SAE levels are useful for technical discussions, but could be confusing to the general public. They call it levels of driving automation, but then say levels 0 through 2 are driver support features. SAE Levels of Driving Automation™ Refined for Clarity and International Audience Even the name Autopilot is problematic as much of the population's perception of aircraft's autopilot likely overestimates the systems' capabilities.

    A report considering how autonomous cars should be treated under the law calls to only use the term autonomous for systems that are Level 5, maybe Level 4. Anything less is not autonomous, so we can stress to the public that they are the ones still driving, and are responsible for what the car does.

    Relatedly, the IIHS's new rating system for these driver's aids stresses how well the system keeps the driver's attention on the road. A system can work great, but if it doesn't monitor both the hands and eyes of the driver, and the car doesn't come to a stop if the driver isn't paying attention, it is impossible to get the high score.
     
    #43 Trollbait, Feb 3, 2022
  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    30 mph is a very lethal speed against the many non-occupant and un-caged road users (pedestrians, bicyclists, mopeds, etc.) sharing the streets with motor vehicles.

    Unfortunately, while occupant deaths have fallen significantly this century (even with the pandemic spike), non-occupant deaths have risen considerably. As a fraction of total traffic deaths, the non-occupant percentage is up quite sharply.
    So those Autopilot miles are not equivalent to the non-Autopilot miles, therefore the crash rate comparison between them is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Their ratios presented at post #30 are not using equivalent denominators.

    All road users have a vested interest in this technology behaving both legally and safely.
     
    #44 fuzzy1, Feb 3, 2022
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Having gone through over three years of AutoPilot and about three months of Full Self Driving (FSD), I've seen the evolution of functions and features. There is a lot more than just:
    I found this more technical article that has details otherwise missing:
    What Do SAE Automated Driving Levels Mean Anyway? | designnews.com

    • Level 1 - Our 2014 BMW i3-REx, dynamic cruise control, and 2017 Prius Prime.
    • Level 2 - Autopilot only 2019 Tesla Model 3 Std Rng Plus uses Google map for speed control
    • Level 3 - Autopilot and FSD beta our 2019 Tesla Model 3 Std Rng Plus reads road signs
    The problem with "Levels" is they may not have the detailed specs identified.

    Bob Wilson

    ps. My Tesla is downloading 2021.44.30.15, the latest version. I'll be testing it tomorrow.
     
    #45 bwilson4web, Feb 3, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2022
  6. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    AP isn't Level 3. Period. Don't let your expectations get ahead of technical reality.

    Any references stating that FSD is Level 3? Musk has told regulators that FSD is Level 2. If you must have eyes on the road or supervise the driving, it ain't Level 3. A real Level 3 drives itself without human oversight, at least under limited conditions. The driver doesn't need to do anything until the car stops and requests the human to take over.
     
    #46 fuzzy1, Feb 3, 2022
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I suppose we are should 'trust' you:
    In contrast, we have this source: Tesla Vehicle Safety Report | Tesla

    Accident Data

    Q4 2021

    In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.​

    My driving experience suggests not all drivers are equally skilled. Automation like AutoPilot and Full Self Driving improves the quality of driving.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #47 bwilson4web, Feb 3, 2022
    3PriusMike likes this.
  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    “The only thing SAE J3016 levels tell you about a system is about the responsibilities of the human or the automated system while executing the driving task,” he continued. “That’s it. Nothing about the operational design domain, capabilities of the system, or how advanced the systems are. Just what the human and the automated system are respectively responsible for doing during operation.” - Mahmood Hikmet, PhD, quoted at the link. He also points out that the 0 to 6 scale is not intended to imply that the higher levels are better than the lower.

    I thought the Prius Prime had lane keeping? Was it more of just a warning when leaving the lane? If Autopilot can lane change without the FSD suite, it is Level 3.

    I will welcome autonomous cars when they arrive. Until then, we need to do a better job of teaching the public that driver aids aren't autonomous driving.
    The article sites Super Cruise and Bluecruise as Level 3.
     
    #48 Trollbait, Feb 4, 2022
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    You missed my original:
    • Level 3 - Autopilot and FSD beta our 2019 Tesla Model 3 Std Rng Plus reads road signs
    I was using the word "and" meaning together. It is the combination that elevates the level. So for clarity, "Autopilot plus FSD beta" or "Autopilot combined with FSD beta." Together we get the speed control mentioned in article.
    I was using this source: What Do SAE Automated Driving Levels Mean Anyway? | designnews.com

    Bob Wilson
     
    #49 bwilson4web, Feb 4, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I bought our 2017 Prius Prime for TSSP. On the 1,200 mile drive home, I found it 'warned' and 'nudged' the car. Later testing on I-565 revealed that if left alone, you got full lane departure about the 3d nudge. I was appalled so along with the ICE running control laws below 55 F meant I would easily trade it in for our 2019 Tesla Model 3 Std Rng with Autopilot. Far from perfect, the first generation Autopilot did not depart the lane even on curves.

    Happily, I don't have either "Super Cruise ... Bluecruise." Based on the article, my experience is Autopilot along with FSD is also Level 3. In October 27, 2021, FSD beta was limited access: (1) you had to buy it, and; (2) pass a safety scored driving for over 100 miles. Given normal lead times for an article, it might have been written when there were less than 1,000 selected beta testers.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #50 bwilson4web, Feb 4, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022
  11. Storm88000

    Storm88000 Active Member

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    That video where the Tesla almost rails that telephone pole or whatever around the 6 minute mark is pretty scary. You can hear both the driver and passenger flip out and swear, saying that was the closest they've ever come to an accident with the software. Imagine if the driver had been looking at the big screen or somewhere else for just .5 of a second - kaboom.
     
    #51 Storm88000, Feb 4, 2022
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Installation of 2021.44.30.15 is occurring as I post this note at February 4, 2:10 AM.

    So what is the date and timestamp of the previous FSD beta you are thinking of?

    Bob Wilson
     
    #52 bwilson4web, Feb 4, 2022
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Finished my first regression testing at 4:30 AM February 4 and the car now comes to a complete stop for the required by law delay. Then it proceeds through the intersection. Also one reproducible phantom brake site is fixed. Previous problem spots that had been fixed remain fixed.

    Other weak FSD operations are unchanged which our professional beta testers have already discussed.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #53 bwilson4web, Feb 4, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    That isn't "In contrast". That is exactly the item I was referring to. ​
     
    #54 fuzzy1, Feb 4, 2022
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    No problem. You speculate and in contrast:
    Either agree with Tesla or call them liars. Or perhaps that is closer to your lazy slander.

    Be a man and state what you claim ... or you might "trust in God." After all, we both know you have no empirical evidence, facts, or data.

    In contrast, Tesla has stated the metrics that show doubters to be the fool. To which I have personal experience that AutoPilot saved me and my family from an accident. It saved our lives and/or avoid injury.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #55 bwilson4web, Feb 4, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022
  16. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    Do tell? Did it put you in danger and then save your butt, or did it wrest control from you when you were driving badly?

    A proper FSD will drive defensively. Unfortunately, Elon's decision to remove radar from his design limit's it's ability to spot fast approaching hazards in time to react before it becomes an emergency maneuver.

    Please explain. I know it's anecdotal, but such stories are nice to hear.
     
    #56 dbstoo, Feb 4, 2022
  17. Storm88000

    Storm88000 Active Member

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    Hi Bob, I’m sorry but I’m not sure what you are asking me.
     
    #57 Storm88000, Feb 4, 2022
  18. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    If that were real data, properly presented, you'd be able to answer basic questions, such as what percentage of the crashes were attributed to a specific car model, geographic area or version of software and hardware. None of that is readily visible in the link you posted. It hides the fact that 50% of all those Teslas were driven in California, a state where the climate has been dry and the roads fairly well kept.

    I find it ironic that you challenge fuzzy1 to "be a man" while you are claiming to have a Toyota Prius despite have sold it years ago. YOUR real "skin in the game" is that you own Tesla stock and a Tesla car and have that as a motivation to talk down all other challengers. Be a man. Change your profile to better reflect why you spend so much time defending Tesla and all Tesla does.
     
    #58 dbstoo, Feb 4, 2022
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Autopilot paid for itself in April 2019. In that part of Alabama, the roads are often raised ~8 feet with a steep shoulder drop to the fields and power poles on the outside of the road. An unplanned, treatable medical condition caused five 'micro sleep' events while on the state highway headed into the rising sun. My wife noticed the problem.

    Autopilot kept the car in lane and dynamic cruise control managed the speed. Once in Decatur, a biology break and coffee resolved the overnight sleep problem and we were home less than an hour later.

    This was nearly three years ago when such systems required an expensive trim upgrade in addition to purchase of the package. Worse, they only worked on 'mapped' highways. I had to pay close to $2,000 for AutoPilot that today is standard with every Tesla.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #59 bwilson4web, Feb 4, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Well:
    • Tesla presents the data summary with metrics. The NHTSA has a Fatal Analysis Reporting System (FARS) that has more details about such accidents as well as access to other accident reporting. In the past, I've been able to download data dumps. If you file a Freedom of Information Act request, you can get that data from the NHTSA. For me, I'm satisfied with the summary which has more data than speculations.
    • I checked my signature that still shows "trade-in" of the Prius Prime. I traded it in for the Tesla Model 3. The 2017 Prius Prime with TSSP was a disappointment which is why we still have the 2014 BMW i3-REx.
    • Apparently my signature works as you realize I own both Tesla stock and a Tesla car. The stock increased in value by $923 (closed today) / $60 (2016 bought) ~= 15.4 times. The car just passed 61,000 miles with a software upgrade about 18 hours ago ... parked on my driveway at ~3 AM. Dozens of software downloads and a computer hardware upgrade about two years ago upgraded the car into a much safer and better performing vehicle than when I bought it. Perhaps you might propose a better signature that meets your requirements?
    Tesla brings safety metrics, not speculations. When problems are identified, Tesla usually corrects the problem in about a month with a fresh software download that does not require visiting a service shop. Otherwise, there have been rock induced glass replacements and tires worn out but that is the nature of such things.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #60 bwilson4web, Feb 4, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022
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