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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    I'm thinking that the spike in fatalities are largely Delta cases which were spiking in the NE shortly pre-Omicron.

    Omicron is {insert notional large number here} more contagious than Delta. Probably somewhere between one and two orders of magnitude's worth - real world.
    HOWEVER (comma!) the fact that this month's flavor is pretty much just hanging out in the snott-locker means that it's a lot more TREATABLE by the various therapeutics that have been developed to date.
    EVEN the one which earned a Nobel Prize for Medicine, whose name shall not be mentioned in polite company.... ;)

    If you follow some of the news sites in Israel and the UK, they have a "slightly" different take on the "Omicold" - a word that they're trying to ban in the UK.
    Israel's data are interesting too.
    Omicron doesn't seem to be able to read those "Green Passes" that they use there - so they're going to bust out some more syringes for jab #4.

    Me?
    I'm ALSO old enough to remember a time when I thought that rather than arguing over shots 2 and 3 HERE, we ought to push out more FIRST jabs to Zero-jab nations........like.....perhaps.......South Africa.

    Lather - Rinse - Repeat.

    We should start a pool on where the next variant (Pi? Rho?) will come from, and award 50,000 Priuschat trophy points to the winner.

    Put me down for Ukraine, with an option for the 'Stan.

    Awfully cold in those two places, and political upheaval and contagions are VERY OLD playmates.
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    hospitalizations spiking suddenly here:

    2,240 hospitalized as of 01/03/22 with 72% of the state vaxxed. case numbers are absurd, but i care less for them now than i did back then.

    2,430 was the peak surge last year on 01/04/21

    not sure how much delta there was around back then, and almost no vax, iirc.

    icu and intubations spiking as well, deaths are about half. i suppose we've already lost a lot of the most vulnerable.
    interestingly, the public has mostly moved on, mask use has decreased significantly from my observations, and everything is wide open.
     
    #5262 bisco, Jan 3, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2022
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Of the hospitalized, what are the percentages:
    • unvaccinated?
    • three dose vaccinated?
    • lesser dose vaccinated?
    Bob Wilson
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    unfortunately, i can't find that data. if it'sout there, i don't know where. it's not on the ma dept of public health.
    there is a breakdown by age, and old (Er) people are still taking it in the shorts.

    before the spike of the last week or so, vaxxed were running about 1/3 and unvaxxed 2/3 of hospitalizations.
    interestingly, despite media hype, childrens numbers are very low. only 5 under 12 years old in the hospital.
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Next variant (Pi) will come from Russia, if predictions are being called for.

    ==

    I get it that @bwilson4web wants high-resolution breakthrough data now, but hospital people near such data sources seem pretty occupied fighting fires. But see
    https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/12/24/omicron-treatment-sotrovimab-monoclonal-antibodies

    Published already, and apparently the latest:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03826-3

    measures vaccines and antibody treatments efficacy against omicron in a small number of individuals. Not a hospitalization-based study. But there and in other sources, indications are strong that vaccines (especially if not boosted to 3) are weaker across the board. Two widely used vaccines from a large Asian country appear to do diddly against omicron :eek: However, if you have a bottle of Brii-198 laying around, I'm interested :D

    ==
    Omicron came to US from a traveler from S Africa, who was already vaccinated to some extent with something. That's all I've read about that.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "...more contagious than Delta. Probably somewhere between one and two orders of magnitude's worth..." #5261

    No sir. One and two orders of magnitude means 10x to 100x. It could be double:


    The transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV2 Omicron variant


    Or triple:

    Why Is Omicron So Contagious? - Scientific American

    Perhaps our problem is that 'contagious' is a vague term combining transmissibility and virulence, but offers no help in unwinding those things happening at nearly the same time. It is clicky though - I'd agree with that.

    Omicron virulence is high in terms of next 1 m^2 sinus* joining the ongoing virus-making party. Virulence seems lower in terms of next sinus-haver falling into need for heavy medical treatments. So even here medical term 'virulence' is imprecise as well.

    Maybe COVID will teach us all to better craft and use and communicate words for sickness. I think that has not happened yet.

    *sinus = nasopharyngeal surface area. So many letters.
     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Diminishing virulence has a lot to do with human immune systems including T cells:

    T cells fit to tackle Omicron, suggests new s | EurekAlert!

    Human immune systems are complicated and are likely to evade description in ways that 'just folks' can appreciate. I guess that about a million humans worldwide understand the subject well (myself not quite among them). Of those, approximately none are trying to port their understanding to 'just folks'. Probably better if a few would, because COVID is not the last thing we will be talking about.
     
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i've read articles on how t and b cells work, but they are not fully understood by anyone yet.

    best we can do for now is studies of infected humans, and so far, the biggest omicron problem is contagiousness.
    that being said, many are starting to treat it more like the flu or a cold. but i am more interested in how many in the hospital have delta v omicron, than i am breakthrough infections.
    unfortunately, all the omicron talk has many 'just folks' thinking delta is no longer an issue.
     
  9. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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    Especially us :cool:

    JeffD
     
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  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  11. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude, in base 2.
     
  12. privilege

    privilege Active Member

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    So, original gangsta version Ronda was the baseline at "really really contagious" , then gamma went through so fast that it was not mentioned, then "Delta is 2x-4x more transmissible?" And now we're hearing that "moronic is up to 4-6x more again" .... So basically there's no way out until natural immunity snuffs it out ? Oops I mentioned the evil natural thing.

    In other news, vaccine manufacturers finally admit that it's not feasible, economical, or even possible to keep jabbing the planet every 3-6 months.

    Oxford Covid-19 vaccine scientist says 'we can't vaccinate the planet every six months' - CNN

    Screenshot_20220105-061958.png

    Dang it, they're not supposed to agree with what I said about protective the vulnerable and getting out of everyone else's way, TWO YEARS AGO. That's just not cool !
     
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Yes there is only natural immunity. Human-produced cells and antibodies that latch onto particular locations in virus, bacteria or other troublemakers. Such cells and antibodies are very specific.

    They can be produced by 'natural training' in the course of an infection, or by 'assisted training' by vaccination that does not require an infection. Some folks lack access to vaccines and only have natural training to rely on. Some folks eschew vaccines which leaves them pretty much in the same place. Others take advantage of all protections that become available to them.

    ==
    Actually some antibodies are completely non-human. They are developed in mice or other biological systems, purified, and off they go into IV bags. Antibodies are Y-shaped, 100-or-so amino acid long chains of, well, help. Antibodies latch onto the troublemakers, and other side latches onto the immune cells that make the troublemakers go away. Immune cells are like the wood chippers in our nearby current thread :) and yes, you make them all yourself.

    As I understand it, biochemistry is right on the edge of being able to synthesize those to order, in lab, with no intermediate critter required. I expect that to be very useful in future.
     
  14. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    That would mean people that shamed and blamed those who got no shot & quickly got natural immunity & had no symptoms - were wrongly accused of being the root cause. Pride gets in the way. Then there's the lawsuits. people getting fired for no shots? Get your job back? Or your big fat money settlement. People tend to fight and die for a hill that doesn't amount to one of beans.
    .
     
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    easy on the hill references big fella :cool:
     
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  16. SFO

    SFO Senior Member

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  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    On behalf of those not clicking @SFO link, it explores persistence of COVID neutralizing antibodies up to Delta with nothing about Omicron. Protection against COVID variants (which is hard enough to define) decreases through time.

    ==
    Omicron variant has a (surprisingly) large number of changes in antibody-important areas. It exploits naive, survivors of earlier-variant infections, and vaccinated populations very well. It still does not look like an effective human killer, but it is stressing hospital resources. In a way that all hoped would not happen as COVID vs human interactions continue to play out.

    We (the big we) are being beaten here. I have no doubt that vaccine makers are chasing Omicron and will offer new vaccines soon. But we tire of being beaten and tire of personal responsibility actions (masks etc) that are not good enough against this sneaky guy.

    Unsure where this leads. Probably another crappy year but after that ?
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it is hard to know how much omicron is stressing hospital resources vs delta. i can't find data anywhere.
    not that it really matters. government has pretty much thrown in the towel. it's the wild, wild west from here to eternity
     
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times

    upload_2022-1-6_8-52-36.png
    Sorted: HOSPITALIZED PER 100,000
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thanks!
    i already have that data. just no data on how many or what percentage of hospitalized/icu/intubations/deaths are omicron.
    i think, because there is so much omicron hype, people are forgetting that delta is still with us, and likely causing most of the misery since Christmas