SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

At what rate compared to the unvaccinated?

The only guarantees are death and taxes. But you can avoid the stupid bets.

Bob Wilson

 

Wishing the same for you.


At what rate are they dying?
This IS the science and data channel.....

If they're going to make daffy laws about masks (both mandating AND mandating non-mandates) I want to know that there is a "clear and present" danger - NOT some risk that's more or less the same as when I bolt myself into a car and take on local traffic....

I DO buckle up.

 

Considering what’s at stake, with COVID mandates/edicts, I’m more than comfortable with playing along with all of it, even if it’s sometimes excessive. If everyone cooperated, played by the rules, for about 6 months, we could have this damn thing licked.

 

Were we not exactly here scarcely more than a month ago, ultimately getting the annualized US car fatality rate of 1:8303 (Insurance Information Institute) or 1:8307 (me after fixing my math)?

You supplied today's number of the day, 1:500 for COVID, over what is now maybe 20 months, or an annualized 1:833 or so.

Does your definition of "more or less the same" stretch to multiplying risk by ten?

That's for starters.

Not to forget ... those numbers we use for car deaths have been pretty stable a pretty long time. Actuaries have tables about them. A 7.2% wiggle for 2020 makes headlines in the car fatality scene.

Not so for COVID. Two years ago, your COVID death risk was 1:∞. Just by reducing the current death toll to an annualized risk, we are performing an average under a curve with a skinny end and a fat end. The place we're projecting ahead from? Not the skinny end.

 

I rounded up.

Besides...you're using CNN's numbers for all age groups, using all protection modalities both pre-vax and post vax, all population densities within the USA, and MUCH MORE Importantly to the "science and data" crowd residents of red states, blue states, Trump voting and Trump hating.

ALL of us.

I contend that for my particular case, 1:8300 isn't a stretch - otherwise we're not much more protected than we were in 2019 and dot.gov is wiping their backsides with the Bill of Rights for not-much.....

The vaccine either works, or it doesn't.
Otherwise?
1:500 is not my risk, it's OUR risk and everything we've been told is a(nother) lie.



Besides.
I eat mostly vegan, but I'm as mentally well adjusted as an omnivore.

....best of both worlds.

 

oops - that's what I get for trying to be helpful. beating accepted

 

...and WILL continue until your morale (morality?) improves.

 

Gona be a long long beating I fear
.

 

hard to figure the risk of an invisible to the naked eye virus. you can judge some risk with common sense, but you never know when a well placed sneeze from a contagious youngun might send enough particles your way to infect you.
and you won't know the amount of illness that will cause until you know.

i err on the side of caution, but hey, it's very unlikely you will die, or even wind up in the hospital or with long term covid. or spread it to someone more vulnerable unknowingly

 

May not be as different as one may think after the forth or fifth 'booster' for more and more Greek letters.

 

well, this is interesting:
fda-says-covid-19-vaccines-remain-effective-without-boosters-11631726504

more coming friday

 

One can skew the car fatality odds more in your favor by doing a few things:

- don't drink and drive
- wear your seat belt
- maintain your car
- don't speed
- don't text and drive or do other stupid distracting things
- minimize driving during peak accident times (Friday and Saturday near midnight is 2x worst than mornings)

Crashes by Time of Day and Day of Week - Injury Facts

So, instead of 1:8307 which is an overall US average you might be at 1:20,000 or 1:25,000 (or whatever) by practicing these mostly obvious safe practices.

Mike

 

A nice summary of the COVID-19 booster: Biden’s Controversial COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Plan - FactCheck.org
...
The Case for Boosters
In presenting their rationale for the decision on Aug. 18, health officials pointed to multiple recent studies conducted in the U.S. that have suggested a decline in the real-world effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines in preventing any kind of lab-confirmed infection.

...
Lack of an Obvious Need to Boost Immunity
While Fauci may be convinced by the data, other scientists are not so sure. Not only is it not yet known how helpful a booster will be long-term, they say, but it’s far from clear that they are needed in the first place.
..
Observational Study Challenges
A constant challenge for public health officials is how to best interpret many of the observational studies evaluating vaccine or booster effectiveness over time, given that the groups being compared are often very different from one another beyond whether they received a shot or not, or at what time.
...
Immunological Evidence
The immunology data also back the notion that in healthy people, the vaccines are holding steady against severe COVID-19, if not always against infection or more mild illness.
...
A Benefit to Boosting Now?
The experts we spoke with agreed that giving third doses of the mRNA vaccines now could very well be somewhat helpful, but likely only to a limited degree — and would not be as advantageous as immunizing unvaccinated people.
...
To Boost or Not to Boost?
Ultimately, the decision to boost is “one that’s going to have to be made in the face of imperfect evidence,” said Dowdy. The administration is in the difficult situation of trying to balance waiting for enough evidence against the risk of a surge in cases.​

Bob Wilson

 

and speeding, driving while impaired, cell phones, recless driving continue to increase

 

Exactly ....

(risk factors that decreased) ✕ (risk factors that increased) = ?

And likewise ...

The risk of death from COVID is

(will I die if I get it?) ✕ (will I get it if exposed?) ✕ (will I be exposed?)

The vaccine reduces those first two. Works.

By the same token, in early 2020 you'd have had to look pretty hard in your surrounding n square miles to find somebody to expose you.

That factor, to put it mildly, hasn't decreased.

(risk factors that decreased) ✕ (risk factors that increased) = ?

Neither factor is a(nother) lie, or fake news, or what not. And there's this ✕ between them.

 

we have opened everything up, and people are spending a lot of time closely packed and/or indoors.

so we can expect to see more cases among both vaxxed and unvaxxed. we can expect more severe illness and death, but a smaller percentage of vaxxed.

as the weather cools, i'm back in my hidyhole with masks and alcohol. some others, not so much, but you get what you pay for.

i'm so tired of the comparisons to other dangers in life, it's just a deflection from the virus.

 

If the virus is a danger to life, then how else do you quantify it?

Vaccinate, put a mask in your back pocket if you're inclined or compelled and get on with life.

^ That.

Me?
I'm thinking I may tap the brakes on getting a third shot, and just get a flu shot instead.

I don't have the option of evacuating from hurricanes OR pestilences....
I respect each but fear neither one, and it's usually the aftermath and cleanup that's the harder and more dangerous part to deal with.

American Academy of Pediatrics urges FDA to approve COVID vaccines for children under 12 | PBS NewsHour
^
This just in from government funded news.....

I do not know quite how to think about 'littles' getting the vaccine....but I don't really "have to."

Since I don't have a kid in the fight, and I KNOW MY ROLE as a grandparent, I'll let parents be parents and kids be kids.
I have 2 nieces that are >12 and one WANTS the vaccine, while the other doesn't.
Their bodies.
Their parent's choice - but Mom and Dad say that they'll let them get the shots if they so desire.

ALL 50 states require the "Big 5"

• Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis (DTaP)
• Polio (IPV)
• Hepatitis B
• Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR)
• Chickenpox (Varicella)

VERY few states mandate these unconditionally, and very curiously, these include the reddest of the red states (MS) and the Bluest of the Bluies (CA)

States With Religious and Philosophical Exemptions From School Immunization Requirements


It will be kinda interesting to see how they deal with adding a 6th set of needles to the hit parade.

Two shots per kid?
Booster?


...Stay tuned.

 

Not nearly as much as it should have for all the improvements that have been implemented. Perhaps there is some risk compensation going on?


(Transportation safety in the United States - Wikipedia)

On this scale, 2019's value was 11.1 per gigamile, the preliminary estimate for 2020 is 13.7. During the pandemic's first year, vehicle miles dropped but deaths rose.