Featured DOE findings on TCO: ICE, HEV's, PHEV's, & BEV's

The average age of a car in the US fleet is over 11 years, with the average annual mileage of around 15,000 miles.

There have been about 13 million plug ins sold in the US since the Volt and Leaf arrived. The multi-million sales years are recent. The number of battery packs that could have come up for recycling may not be over a million at this point. Tesla's latest cell was designed with recycling in mind, but there simply isn't many 'dead' packs out there to sustain a recycling business yet.

 

OK I see that now ... in Australia cars only last on average 2 years and much lower km ...

 

Fair enough ... but probably should not include trucks in the 25 mpg comparison (maybe they have not). If they compared to Toyota hybrids the difference with EV's would be much smaller as hybrids are typically 38 - 58 mpg.

 

Two years?? For the lifetime of the vehicle, or the length of ownership?
That seems an incredibly short timeframe for either, but especially for the lifetime of the vehicle.

 

This is saying your average car age in Australia is 10.6 years; Motor Vehicle Census, Australia, 31 Jan 2021 | Australian Bureau of Statistics
I'm guessing 2 years might be how often some of the public replace a car. I don't see how cars can have a shorter life there than in America.

The figure they used was for premium midsized sedans from Consumer Reports. I have issues with CR's testing, but if Tesla was comparing user data for the Model 3, they probably have the most extensive data base of real world testing.

The 25mpg number might include hybrids, because there are some available in that class. It is a class with performance orientation though. Even the hybrids don't get over 30mpg combined EPA. Well, the Lexus ESh might be in there. It's 44mpg could be keeping the average from being really bad. The other Toyota hybrid sedans(LS and LC) are more Model S competitors on price, and they fall under the 30mpg mark.

Tesla engineers are pretty good. The Model 3 is the most efficient EV out there. It is also one of the fastest. You could compare it to the likes of the Prius and Camry hybrids, but those won't give what many Model 3 buyers want. They won't be buying a Corolla hybrid if the Model 3 didn't exist. They might get a Civic Si, though they could also go for a BMW or Audi.

 

Yep - other than jumping ship from Prius, the BMW was one is the top providers to Tesla by way of Conquest sales. Good on them! That's likely a strong motivator to other manufacturers to step up to the plate & start getting serious with their own EV projects.
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undoubtedly he knows all this.
Isn't it a shame that we have to continually keep knocking down his strawmen?
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Some drivers may neglect to brake for wombats and thus have to write the car off.

Edit: Or camels?

 

Aren't they driving "upside down" down there. They don't call it down under for nothing.
And the steering wheels are on the wrong side too!



Mike

 

Typo .. meant to say 12 years.

 

Boring. It was more fun trying to guess what was doing them in by year two.

 

Yes wombats will cause alot of damage .. take out the front suspension. Kangaroos are a much bigger issue in parts and you really need a bull bar if you travel regularly in some places.

Here in Australia we have lots of SUV's but not nearly as many large trucks as you have. We are right hand drive and so your large trucks have to be converted and that keeps the numbers down. But we have a large numbers of Tecoma equivalents and none are even hybrid.

 

Every region has its issues with live obstacles;

Incredible images from moose vs. car collision in northern Maine
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Local fuel costs are a big variable for TCO. In Europe, the Tesla with compare better than in the US.

 

Perhaps, but I think it will happen a lot sooner.
After all, 10 years ago now you had the Tesla Roadster, being produced at about 1000/year. I don’t believe the leaf or Volt started selling yet. If they had, 2011 world-wide sales may have been 20-30 thousand?
Now, world-wide, you have a couple million plugins being sold each year.

Some people get a better TCO on a Model 3 than a Camry now. I expect that line will be crossed for the average buyer in a few years.