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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    c'mon ray, you know me. 'nice' is relative. one of the few redneck things i do is redneck wine, it tasted nice :p
     
    #4081 bisco, Jul 3, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2021
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  2. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    The vaccines were never 100% effective at preventing the disease, only mid-90% on the first two approved here, a bit lower for the third one. Even in the test trials, a small number of vaxxed people still got the disease, but the vax kept it mild. In the limited sample sizes of the trials, no one died or needed hospitalization.

    Once rolled out to the public, a vastly larger sample size, they do find some vaxxed people still die or need hospitalization, but at a tiny rate compared to unvaxxed people. Right now, with about two-thirds of all eligible people vaxxed, they make up about 1% of 'rona deaths. About 99% of 'rona deaths are among the unvaxxed.

    It should be no surprise that if vaxxed people can still sometimes catch it, then they can still pass it along. But the transfer rate among them appears very low, too low to sustain a pandemic. Think of it as a nuclear chain reaction. Without the vaccine, the chain reaction grows fast and blows up. A nuclear bomb. With the vaccine, a chain reaction still exists but quickly fizzles out.

    My 99.8 year old aunt got it two months after full vaccination, verified by multiple tests, but her only symptom was a runny nose. We were able to have a 100th birthday party for her.
    It wasn't just the masks, it was the whole collection of pandemic measures, including isolation, cancellation of large events, social distancing, handwashing, and other measures too. And it didn't stop the flu 100%, just ~99%. But when people began reducing their precautions this spring, the flu started rising again.

    Compared to the originally tested strains, the Delta variant appears much more able to grab hold of some of the vaxxed people and put them in the hospital or kill them. While it isn't latching on to vaxxed people well enough for a self-sustaining chain reaction, it doesn't fizzle out as quickly either. And with plenty of unvaxxed people spreading it around like crazy, that means more vaxxed people are still going to get hit.

    After seeing the long haul symptoms of the disease, numerous vaxxed people are still nervous about walking around in public among a bunch of active disease spreaders. The new demon 'ronas appear nastier than what we faced a year ago, and vax protection is not 100%.
     
    #4082 fuzzy1, Jul 3, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2021
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  3. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    Of all the people that I know who have covid-19, 100% have not been vaccinated and all believed that masks were some sort of plot by the government.

    Several of my family anti-vaxxers have decided that getting vaccinated was a good idea after watching a neighbor or family member die from it. Currently my step sister's family is 100% infected, with 6 people in one house unable to take care of themselves. One was instructed to go to the hospital, but decided to stay home because the hospital was "part of the conspiracy". Between her diabetes and high fever, she's liable to have a tragic result.
     
  4. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    I thought maybe you'd celebrate and splurge :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:.

    Glad it went down enjoyably(y).
     
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  5. privilege

    privilege Active Member

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    I googled and found only 46% vaccinated...
    Screenshot_20210703-153535.png
    that leaves 54% that should be spreading the latest super spreader / super deadly version of the blessed virus like crazy among them.

    abiding to worldometer, least year was 25k
    Screenshot_20210703-154415.png


    it should be spreading like wildfire across the masses of non believers, but its half of last year, with cities and airports wide open ??
    Screenshot_20210703-154403.png



    my favorite was the news conference where they all had to be reminded to put face diapers in for the cameras...
     
  6. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Looks like 213 is the number of posts needed to cycle right back to two-week-old bogosities.
     
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  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    florida is averaging about 2500 cases a day. seems like a pretty healthy spread to me considering it's summer, and they are even beating taxas
     
  8. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Look again. It says 47.6% of total population, not just eligible population, is fully vaccinated. And 55.3% is at least partially vaccinated. Partially vaxxed people are at least partially protected -- in fact mostly protected from the original strains -- so don't count as full strength spreaders.

    Note that children under age 12 are still ineligible. And are the least susceptible to this virus. The %-vaxxed figure I stated earlier are for the eligible population, which correlates with more- and most-susceptible populations.

    Remember that very many nonbelievers are now immune, from having survived the actual disease. Once recovered -- excluding the many who didn't survive -- they don't count as potential spreaders anymore.

    Vaccination rates vary enormously by age group. When I responded to your claim two weeks ago, 92% of ages 65+, who were getting hit hardest by the virus last year, were already partially vaccinated this year. For the rest of adults, ages 18-64, 58% were already vaccinated. The completely un-vaccinated people are very disproportionately young, who are also the least affected by this disease.
     
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  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    At this time last year, most cases were senior citizens. This year, that group is overwhelmingly vaccinated (>92%), or has immunity from surviving the disease, or is already dead.

    The demographics of the remaining susceptible population this year are vastly different than least year. More than half of the total population is at least partially vaccinated. Crudely 100+ million people have experienced the disease, so have some natural immunity, with or without vaccination added in. And the largest single block of unvaccinated people are children under age 12, who are the least susceptible demographic.

    Put all these together, and the remaining population of fully susceptible, potential full strength spreaders should be getting fairly small, far below half the population. Even adding in the comparatively weaker potential spreaders, significantly less than half should be meaningful spreaders at all.

    The fact the disease case rate is down by only half, should be setting off alarm bells. This thing is spreading like wildfire among the susceptible.

    Last month, 97 to 98% of 'rona hospitalizations were of unvaccinated people. Now, 99% of 'rona deaths are of unvaccinated people. Considering the current vaccination demographics, that should be a big enough clue-by-four to knock sense into those who can see any sense.
     
    #4089 fuzzy1, Jul 3, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2021
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  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    It is weird and interesting that some pets seem to have sub acute COVID:

    Study suggests it is common for pet dogs and cats to catch COVID-19 from their owners

    All vaccines remain under emergency use authorizations, excluding age 12 and below, excluding about 4% of lungs.

    Even with (unexpected) full vaccine uptake by eligible populations, there still is some room for new variants to experiment. No worse may emerge after the delta variant! It is my hope but not my expectation.
     
    #4090 tochatihu, Jul 3, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2021
  11. privilege

    privilege Active Member

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    link to any/all of these quoted statistics ?
     
  12. privilege

    privilege Active Member

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    should the economies shut down again and everyone just sit at home for another year ?

    I mean, all those vaccinated people can still spread the blessed virus religion , sooooo, everyone should just stay home , right ?
     
    #4092 privilege, Jul 4, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2021
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    No, just you. <rim shot>

    Bob Wilson
     
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  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    no need to stay home right now, but that could change in the fall if more people don't get the vaccine
     
  15. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    You are misinterpreting the situation. All the people who have NOT been vaccinated should stay home so that they don't spread it. The rest of us won't catch it often enough to spread it that way.

    The math is easy: If vaccinated, your chance of catching it is 1 in 100. Your chance of spreading it to others who are vaccinated is 1 in 100 for each vaccinated person you come in contact with. I don't see 100 people in a week even without sheltering at home, so If, by some weird quirk I was infected, chances are I would not infect anyone else.

    Assume that Privilege, on the other hand, has not been vaccinated. Neither are all of his friends, because birds of a feather flock together. No, I'm not calling them birdbrains. When they get together to laugh at "sheep" who are vaccinated, they have a 1 in 10 chance that they will be infected if their buddy has it. Are there 10 other 'birds' in the bar, yelling at each other to be heard over the music? Most likely. Any wearing masks? What? Wear a mask and look like a sissy?? Never! So the chances that they will spread it like jelly on bread is quite likely.

    My generation was taught about the science behind disease prevention and vaccinations to prevent spread. We stopped the relentless march of Polio, which crippled and killed millions. We stopped rubella, measles, small-pox and others. That's why WE will wear a mask as long as there are new variants and a bunch of bird brains who think it's all a hoax. It's to protect us, not you. :)
     
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  16. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Some items have previously been linked in prior postings. For more, read on ...


    Vaccination rates by age group table:

    cdc-vaccinations-by-age-table.JPG


    Vaccination history by age group graph (change data selection to get this view):
    cdc-vaccinations-by-age.JPG


    Death counts by age group. (Change data selection to get this view.) Note that a year ago, each older age group had significantly more deaths than its immediately younger group. Lately, the four oldest age groups show much less difference, and the two oldest groups are no longer at the top:
    death rates by age history.JPG death rates by age history legend2.JPG


    Case rates by age group (change data selection to get this view):
    case rates by age history.JPG

    Readers can pick off any particular week and get a pop-window of figures. Note a drastic change in the shape of age distribution from Spring 2020 to Spring 2021. April 2020, except for infants and toddlers, the rate was almost uniformly higher with increasing age. But in the most recent two months, the case rates peak at either age 16-17 or 18-29, then get uniformly lower with increasing age.

    Originally, it was mostly an older person's disease. Now that they are the best vaccinated, it is hitting teens and young adults the hardest. Examples shown here:
    . case rates 2020-04-11.JPG shifting to -->> case rates 2021-05-15.JPG


    99% Of People Killed By Covid Last Month Were Unvaccinated, Analysis Finds

    99pct.JPG

    99% of U.S. COVID deaths are unvaccinated people, Fauci says
     
    #4097 fuzzy1, Jul 5, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2021
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  17. privilege

    privilege Active Member

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    wooooo, that's some info to browse, thank you !

    (throwing out all the faucci stuff because... well... he's involved with its manufacturing so....)

    again thanks!
     
  18. privilege

    privilege Active Member

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    lol !
     
  19. privilege

    privilege Active Member

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    it's good to have opinions :)

    assumptions are wrong a lot of the time. I try to stay away from that part of it.

    happy 4th :)