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Cars I don't want: buy or lease?

Discussion in 'Other Cars' started by Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Jun 27, 2021.

  1. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Well now that we have a little McCoalroller running around, it's time to add a car. We're keeping the c and we expect to do most of our household's miles in it- but sometimes we will need a bigger car.

    And lots of cars are out of stock, or have long shipping delays or premium prices posted.

    So I'm not getting what I want. Boom, I said it. Moving past it. I still have to find something that can move the family around safely and fits the budget. The cars I want just aren't available or affordable today, but that will change.

    I spotted what looks like a decent deal to lease a car.

    I've never leased a car and my only interest in doing it now is to make sure that this car goes itself away without me losing my shirt. I reckon a lot of "leftover" cars being sold now are going to wind up depreciating extra-fast once manufacturing catches up with the good stuff.

    So the core question, and it's much more of a financial question than a car-stuff question:

    Anyone out there think it's a bad idea to lease a car when I am: a) certain I don't want it forever and b) expectant that the carmaking shortage will subside within 3 years?


    Comments?
     
  2. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    The only two things that last forever are love and deleting files in unix.

    (F)leasing is almost NEVER a good idea unless you fit within a very VERY narrow parameter range, and you're STILL not going to get a good deal, but rather one that will "suck less."

    I don't see "teenage driver" fitting those parameters, but "limited use family hauler", might.
    The thing is......fleasing is usually used to keep people in newer cars than their budgets might otherwise allow, or to put people in more expensive cars than their cars might otherwise allow.

    All of the weather forecasting instruments presently indicate that you should ABSOLUTELY wait until there are more cars chasing fewer bucks than the other way around.

    However (COMMA!!) weather guessers are a lot like baseball batters.
    They can fail at their assigned task more than half the time, and still get to rich and famous, and considered to be great in their field.

    If I woke up with a teenage driver I would look for a college-kid car and accept the fact that I'd be paying about $1,000-$2000 more than I might have done a while back, and and the kid into a G3.
    They're a little bit bigger than the Priussy and you can get one new enough to be reliable and safe enough to let you sleep nights without having to revamp your retirement plans.
    It would also be a wonderful opportunity to perform a theory-to-practice on vehicle maintenance.

    You may want to consider doing what @farmecologist did and beat the bushes for a used Prius with a verifiable pedigree, especially since you know what an EGR is and how to keep a G3 from getting the "death rattle" that are causing their street values to plummet.
    To be fair, that's also a hatchback car thing as the market shifts away from cars and towards CUVs.

    Good Luck!
    Keep us posted!!
     
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  3. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    I was assuming the little McCoalroller wasn't going to be driving for some time yet.
     
  4. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    To clear up a misunderstanding, this particular McCoalroller was born 5 months ago.

    So when I say she's rolling around, it's generally in a stroller which I need to occasionally fold up into the trunkpart of a car. Our c has been great for the local trips around town, but it's time to look at trips further afield with more cargo aboard.

    She and her stuff are all small enough (for now) that I can avoid the dreaded SUV & minivan categories for a while- but we do need something bigger than a Prius for the family cruisin' trips.
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    our kids about to have their third, moved up from a murano to oddysey. they wanted a sienna, but there are none to be had.
    leasing is not all the same. you have to look at the deal, and compare the math with purchasing, and sale/trade value at the end of the lease.
    and some lese agreements require the car to be in better condition than others.
     
  6. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Congratulations!
    My mistake entirely.....but my advice pretty much remains the same.

    I will add that sometimes child seats (and their contents!) can have a decidedly negative impact on the interior of a car, more so if you have to take them in and out a lot, and most (f)leasers these days will look for signs of use with the dedication and intensity of a TV forensics examiner.
     
  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    If a car is needed know, and what you want isn't available, I don't see leasing as a bad idea in general.

    I understand that used car prices have gone up, but what about something more towards the beater(old/high miles) category. Price plus cost to make it reliable, might still come out ahead of a lease.
     
  8. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    This is exactly what I'm getting at. Since I'm going to be putting up with a car other than what I really want, it stands to reason that other people won't be too enthusiastic about it either.

    So the way I'm looking at it, I can shell out somewhere between $8k and 9k to be in "good enough" wheels for the next 3 years on this lease deal, and only that much.

    What I'm trying to avoid is buying into a $30k car that I'll struggle to unload for $14k in 3 years when it is time to adapt again.

    That's still on the menu, though I feel like there is even more competition for good used than new. Ah, if just the right 2017 Prius V came along...
     
    bisco likes this.
  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    There is option C, a roof rack for the c until the current car shortage is over. Or it will give more time before having to settle on something.
     
  10. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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    Hey congrats! Our kids are little bit older...22 and 19. (y)

    I'll have to say, our car search saga turned out great...but it is a big time sellers market. We ended up doing a craigslist deal. Turned out stellar and was a win-win for both of us...but I was a bit nervous about it ( we had never done a craigslist deal before ). Also got a great valuation on our 2010 with 135K that was totaled. Valuations *are not* plummeting on the Gen3's in this market..even with the EGR issues, etc... The average joe doesn't know squat about EGR issues...they just want to spend less on gasoline. (y) ( tagging @ETC(SS) on this ).

    It's too bad *small* minivans aren't really a thing anymore. Our 2014 Mazda MPV got us through the 'early kid' years up until we got the Prius v wagon. We had this color/model...but not the aftermarket wheels. We got a LOT of compliments on the color thru the years. Also cool that the rear windows went down. Made it feel a lot more like a car.

    upload_2021-6-27_13-31-5.png
     
    #10 farmecologist, Jun 27, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2021
  11. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Mrs. McCoalroller is being called back to work, so a second set of wheels is needed in general. The c remains ideal for getting her to and from the airport, plus all the grocery getting when available. If we go back to pre-pandemic normal it'll eat 20k miles/year doing this.

    Second car really just needs to be safe roomy family transportation for longer trips plus secondary wheels when the Mrs. is out of town with the c. It isn't likely to see more than 8k miles/year.
     
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  12. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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    Hmm...Ford Maverick? (y)
     
  13. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    I have leased several cars in the past. 4 to be exact. They were cars otherwise too expensive to purchase within our tight monthly budget then. If you want 3 years of a rental car that you know you are not going to abuse and will not put more miles than the contract allows, then sometimes leasing makes perfect sense, IMHO. That being said, it generally costs more than purchasing cash, but if you are comparing only 3 years of ownership of a leased vs financed purchase, then the total price tag may be quite comparable. For a leased car, you are paying the depriciation cost plus interest for the duration of the lease on your monthly payment, and when you get out of the lease, you get nothing for it. For a financed purchase, you are paying the total cost of the car plus interest in the monthly payment, but you get what the car is worth when ready to sell.

    In the end, I really liked leasing. if you don't plan to keep the car longer than 3 years, then leasing makes perfect sense. But each leasing contract is different. You have to do the math. I generally treat any lease program to be a good deal if the total cost (that is upfront down payment plus the total of monthly payments and any "fees" associated) is less than 1/3 of the price of the car if purchased in cash. Basically, that's a 33% payment of the car for the depriciation and interest in 3 years. However, you do have to read small prints on other "fees" they try to tac on at the end of a lease to make sure that the total stays within this range.

    I am at the age that no longer wanting to DIY car maintenance or keep a car longer than a few years. And I will not likely be driving more than 10K miles/year. Unless the EV tax credit gets changed to a refundable credit, I am likely to lease my first EV for a 3-years rental. Hoping I will find a similar deal as Hyundai offered on their original Ioniq EV. No money down, $99/mo 3 years lease.
     
  14. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Yeah, my cocktail napkin math was taking me along these lines. I think the growing kid, changing energy costs and expanding EV/PHEV landscape will add up to us wanting different wheels in 2024 no matter what.
     
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  15. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    Most leases vs purchase comparisons I have seen online compare the lease program which is usually only for 3 years to purchase of a car on a 3-5 years loan. Yeah, of course, the lease will cost more for longer than 3 years of ownership because you are driving a new car after the first 3 years. But, if you do the math only on the 3 years of ownership, that is purchase a car and sell it after 3 years, then the lease vs financed will become very close. That is unless a dealer is giving you a huge purchase discount. Most of the lease programs I have seen are based on MSRP price, not the actual sale price. If a dealer is willing to discount $6K off MSRP for financed purchase, but lease cost is based on the MSRP, then leasing will be quite a bit more expensive.
     
  16. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    That... that smells exactly like the kind of wisdom I was hoping to discover with this thread. Thank you.
     
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  17. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    For the next year or so financed price will be pretty close to MSRP, and if I know my McCoalrollers, they're not gonna want to play the up-optioned "discount" price game that is required to make (f)leasing "statistically" less expensive than buying.

    I think that there is a used Prime out there that has L.J.M. written alllllllll over it.
    Even if you pay $1,000 over last year's street price, you'll save a bajillion in depreciation and probably insulate yourself a little bit during the next few fuel price spikes.

    Gas is going up too!
    I'm paying over $2.50 for the stuff!!!!!! :(

    Might be a good time for a road trip to Tampa/St Pete.
     
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  18. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    But then, would a Prime, with its Prius-like overall dimensions and battery-narrowed hatch, haul enough for those family cruisin' trips?
     
  19. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Good Question, but the OP said: "Well now that we have a little McCoalroller running around..."

    The PP is a small car, but it's big enough for kid duty.
    Even kids duty if you don't have a litter.
    Of course....I myself originally misinterpreted the OP, but speaking as somebody who has multiple car seats in multiple cars as I type this I can assert that there's enough seatbelts in a Prime for 2+2 ops, plus cargo and support equipment.
     
  20. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    As much as I like the plugginess of the Prime, I think we'd grow out of it too quickly. Grandpa McCoalroller moved in with us a couple of years ago, so big family trips would be four butts in four seats plus luggage with baby-gear multiplier. We use his Cherokee for those trips now, but that car is long in the tooth and it won't be replaced; he'll be hanging up the keys one of these days. So I think a Prius v is the smallest and a pluggy RAV4 would be a lot better if I want to stay in the hybrid range. Thing is I'm still anticipating as little as 8k miles per year going on car #2. That's not a huge energy savings.

    So...

    We just got back from test-driving a 2020 Mazda 6 grand touring with very few miles on it. It's got the space, drives well, spouse-approved, has the features we want and somebody else already took a major depreciation hit on it.

    I still think we'd outgrow it in five-ish years, but I like what I'm hearing about the resale value I could expect for that car at that time. And with any luck at all, a pluggy wagon or SUV of appropriate size will be easy to find at that time.
     
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