SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

i wonder what the demand is like in rural areas

 

A bunch of women of child bearing age are pointing out that this J&J risk is far lower than their similar blood clot risk from the birth control they are taking.

 

I agree with them and there may be a causal connection between the two sources of blood clots.

JeffD

 

Interesting 60 Minutes piece on Col. Matt Hepburn, the vaccine effort, and related DARPA projects:

Military programs aiming to end pandemics forever - 60 Minutes - CBS News

 

Data is in. The scientific observational study reveals that the COVID-19 vaccine immunization campaign in Isreal is working.

COVID-19 dynamics after a national immunization program in Israel
A retrospective analysis of data from the Israeli Ministry of Health collected between 28 August 2020 and 24 February 2021 documents the real-life effect of a national vaccination campaign on the pandemic dynamics.

 

not me

 

yesterday on NPR (LoL, NPR is about as credible as my neighbors daughters aunt's cousins brother in law's dentists lawn guy)
they were claiming that :

"rural Americans are extremely frustrated quite the lack of supply, and are demanding that their government step up efforts to bring vaccines to the masses"

meanwhile, in the real world, everyone (I'm the country/county) that I've spoken with that WANTS to be jabbed already got it.
the rest of them just kind of laugh when asked if they have trouble getting it, and reply with a smart alec response like "ya, I havea problem getting the vaccine, I'm not gonna!" or similar.

so far "demand" in rural areas is laudably non existent. they are just waiting for the city people to get back to their normal lives.

btw, when rural Americans want something, they get in a car and drive to town, if they have to.

 

i just got an email from my hospital association. even though the stateopened up vaccinations to everyone 16 and older last monday, they have plenty of vaccine and appointments. 'please come in if you haven't been vaccinated'
and that is with only 25% of the population fully vaxxed.

 

MA is more like 50% of the population vaccinated* as of 4/20/21. That leaves 25% anti-vaxxers who will adamantly refuse to be vaccinated and another 25% vaccine skeptics who have not been convinced of its safety and efficacy. It will be an uphill battle to gain trust from those who have not vaccinated yet. That's why most experts in the medical community have already abandoned the idea of reaching herd immunity. The COVID-19 will become endemic in the population and the aim is to control the spreads and outbreak going forward.

*not the % of fully vaccinated but % of the population who have received at least one dose of vaccine

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/covid-19-vaccines-delivered-and-administered/?currentTimeframe=0&selectedDistributions=share-of-population-vaccinated&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Share%20of%20Population%20Vaccinated%22,%22sort%22:%22desc%22%7D

 

2021 massachusetts population estimate: 7 million

2021 massachusetts population fully vaccinated: 2.1 million

math: 2.1 / 7 = 30%

 

Correct, as I pointed out, the 48.9% is not the % of fully vaccinated but % of the population who have received at least one dose of vaccine. That is a more important number than the fully vaccinated percentage as far as distribution and administration of vaccines to the remaining unvaccinated population is concerned. A person who got the 1st shot of Pfizer/BionTech or Moderna has to wait for 3-4 weeks before the second shot. They can't just arbitrarily decide to go get the second shot.

 

are you saying that that explains why the rush is over?

funny, mrs b was in a panic a month ago, i told her to relax and wait a few weeks, but she wouldn't listen.
up every moring at 5, trying to get an appt on the states connector, and again at midnight.

 

I don't know the local supply and demand issues, but in general, yes supply of vaccines has increased while the demand is slowing down. That being said, all my family and friends who qualified by their jobs or age have had no problem finding appointments even before the opening of eligibility to the general population.

 

Both of my kids (in college) have been trying to get a vaccine appointment and so far, no luck.

They aren't in the 'call CVS, Walgreens, city & state vaccine centers twice a day, every day' mode. (In my opinion it is a scandal that people even had to resort to that to find a vaccine--it should have been: everyone register at one site, get a call/email/text when it is your turn--same for everyone, everywhere. That sure as heck didn't happen!). They are just checking their HMO every few days and each time it is "sorry, you can't make an appointment yet":.

 

It is a risk/reward calculation. The problem is that it appears, according to some data, that for a certain group of people (women in 30s?) the risk of harm may be higher if they get the J&J vaccine than if they don't get it. In other words, you aren't decreasing your chance of getting seriously sick and dying when you take the vaccine, you are increasing it.

Would anyone, would you, take a vaccine which, overall, increases your chance of getting seriously sick? The whole point of the vaccine is to decrease your chance of getting sick.

People keep talking about how small the blood clot risk is. But it doesn't matter how small the risk is. What matters is if the risk is higher or lower than the risk of getting similarly sick from Covid. Why the heck would you get a vaccine that is more likely to make you sick than not getting the vaccine?

Just have people in the increased risk group use a different vaccine. When I got the flu shot I saw that they had a list of four different flu shots that they were giving to different groups: people with certain allergies, people over 65, etc.

 

I am not sure if everyone getting vaccination is doing it for his/her own health concern only. Am I unique in that I willingly decided to get vaccinated not so much to avoid getting sick (or die) from COVID-19, but did it more for the public health concern? So that I do not inadvertently get infected and spread the virus to others. I am more worried about unknowingly spreading this virus to others than myself getting sick from it.

 

It is difficult to tell someone: "This vaccine will increase your chances of harm, possibly even death, even when accounting for Covid. But take it anyway because it is good for society." Better to just offer those people a different vaccine that doesn't cause harm. Good thing we have a choice.

 

Risk/reward calculation is a calculation.
It's math.
If you look at the numbers they are pretty clear.

Many (of the usual suspects) screamed at the comparisons between the complications with the J&J vaccine and a certain drug that many companies are being forced to provide to their workers free of charge.....and they're right!
It's not a fair comparason!

HOWEVER (comma!) It can be argued that by NOT taking a vaccine, your "calculations" (or miscalculations) MAY Affect more than JUST you, and the Effect may arguably be that my beloved government may kill more people by casting (more) doubt on the vaccines than any of the known side Effects will.
That's more "statistics" than math, and YMMV.
There IS no argument that people who eschew vaccines CAN Affect more than JUST them, but it is also very clear that it's probably extraconstitutional to force people to take a not-yet-approved drug....so the "not math" part of this can be pretty complicated.

Math doesn't care about how people feel about this.
Statistics ain't math.

As always:
ACTUAL mileage WILL vary.

My PROnouns:

Pro vaccines
Pro birth control
Pro math
Pro letting people opt out of vaccines
Pro letting dot.gov mandate that anti-vaxers keep their crotch-fruit out of public schools.....

J&J Vaccine Blood Clots vs. Birth Control - How They Compare | Health.com

 

Varies - the 2 Dakotas have some of the highest deaths per million ..... but our home in Montana? They are better off (death per million) than ½ the states, & roughly 20% better off than either of the Dakotas ..... & all 3 of these states are parsley populated per square mile. Then there's Alaska - w/in top 3 lowest (per/million) deaths.
.

 

Agreed. The risk and benefit analysis always comes into play for any medical treatment. I don't know of any medical treatment that is totally risk-free. That's why all those small prints come with every drug including those sold over the counter. But for the mass vaccination from the public health point of view, comparing the benefit and risk to society as whole vs to the individual is not an easy task for some. But it was very easy for me though.