Thursday, December 31 - last day to buy 2020 TSLA stock

It's still way too high, huge bubble, even if the company has a bright future

 

everything is in a bubble, but they don't all burst

 

I’ve been hearing variations of this since the stock was $30/share ($6/share adjusted for splits).

is it possible? Yes, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Tesla is in better shape than they ever have been. And competition has yet to arise. Someday, it will, but Tesla has such a head start, I don’t think it will matter.

 

The issue with buying Tesla stock now is it’s already so high, one wonders about its room to grow. I agree that Tesla seems to be succeeding quite nicely, and may even become the premier electric car manufacturer after the transition is complete. But if I was investing in a company, I would want to either invest after a company with a big stock presence had a significant failure or invest in a smaller stock company with a lot of room to grow.

 

Very well reasoned stance.
Just to play devil's advocate, ask Bisco when he first was going to buy as soon as the price went down a bit ;-)

As another suggestion, watch Cathy Wood of ARK Invest. She has some very interesting thoughts on investing in innovation. She talks about a number of industries.

Here is a recent interview:

 

i could have bought in oct. 2018 for $180. but my broker said there was no room to grow

then it went to 2k, then came the 5 way split

if the market tanks, elon will still be building cars and batteries, powerwalls, solar roofs, launching spaceships, boring tunnels and who knows what else.

gm and ford? they'll be tanking

 

so very true .... the national debt bubble quickly went from 1 to 27 trillion. No explosion yet.

.

 

maybe starlink?

.

 

In the Year 2525 . . . .

 

~500k deliveries this year and analyst consensus is ~800k next year. Can't build out fast enough. Oh, of all the problems to have.

 

That’s all dependent on how fast those factories get operational. 1 million or more in 2022? absolutely. But I wouldn’t necessarily count on that many in 2021.

 

back before the stock split - it seemed way over price as it shot past $300 less than a year ago. Nevertheless, after putting in 5 figures of our IRA - we ignorantly never imagined it would continue to double in less than a year.
Is it to high?
would Tesla be signing nearly a billion dollar 5 year contract if it weren't reasonably certain that they would be needing so many tons of lithium ?

China's Yahua agrees five-year deal to supply lithium to Tesla | Reuters

You can't make a lot of hay if you don't have a giant pitchfork.
Maybe tesla will implode, & maybe the rise will just keep on keeping on for now.
.

 

not any more...

 

Stock is bought on the expectations of future profit. For value investors.

Stock is bought on an expectation of quick appreciation by other folks.

I own a stock that has doubled this year and their dividends only buy more of that stock. And the P/E ration of that stock is allowing me to expect that the dividends will have a reasonable chance to increase just as they have for the last 40+ years. I figured when I bought I could always sell at a little loss and it has sure exceeded those expectations through mergers, acquisitions, management changes, recessions, etc. That stock is now only about 10% of my net worth. I only kept one years worth of that stock I bought using an employee purchase plan. The other years went to pay for colleges, buy cars, pay off a mortgage. Debt free and haven't collected on my 401K RMD in 15 years of retirement.

I remember when I touted the Wankel engine and Toyo Kogyo aka Mazda stock to my father. The next great thing wasn't.

There are risks to even owning my stock. But compared to owning a stock like one of the FAANGs or Tesla, they are slight. Competition or someone with a better product could make all those factories a boat anchor. Or regulations, lawsuits, etc. Or not.

I'm glad some of you here have made a lot of paper profits. Good luck with the rest of the ride.

 

tl;dr
fortunately, tesla isn't a one trick pony, but yes, anything could go down