SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

^^ Yet another exercise for readers:

From the CDC Table 1 that I linked above, create a new spreadsheet column of back-figured 2017-19 weekly deaths, computed as 2020 "Deaths from all causes" divided by "Percent of expected deaths [2]". Then total up the same 42 weeks computed above (this will be coarse due to rounding of the percent-expected column).

I find 2,252,000 deaths reported those same weeks of 2017-19, vs the preliminary 2,567,000 this year.

This is figured today, Nov 29. If one waits a few weeks, CDC updates will then show even larger numbers, especially in those most recent weeks under discussion, as additional deaths certificate reports flow in and get processed. I.e. the excess for this year, 2020, is already quite substantial, and will get even larger as reporting catches up.

 

motive - great. looking up data is now pulling scam. great. even here in the non fhop thread. great (sigh) Can't folks simply ask for specific link(s) ... without knee jerk labels? It'd be nicer to knee jerk presume a mis-read ... or ignorance / incapability with addition by incorporating a bit of grace ... but - if too much to hope for ... ok;

here's 2018
FastStats - Deaths and Mortality

deaths 2020 - now reflecting more than from the Nov 13 post above - last time i'd checked
FastStats - Deaths and Mortality

Our dialog here at home - wondering why the yearly #'s are so similar - trying to reconcile - raised the issue how there'd be less traffic deaths with many at home ... plus less communicable diseases in general being passed on due to lock downs & masks ... still more than enough to offset depressed suicides? don't know how or if murders would weigh towards one year or the other? People missing yearly exams that'd catch cancers / other illness early?

Are the lion's share of deaths those who are "mortally wounded" anyway? maybe ~one year from death? either old age, or other diseases? Wouldn't that possibly result is similar death rates, if death were close w/in that year anyway?

hoping that inquire raises dialogue - not inflamed moods.
.

 

Sorry, if my comment was not clear. The lower than usual percentage of immunity for the population to reach herd immunity is better than the higher percentage of immunity required for the population to reach herd immunity because the population as a whole will reach the state of herd immunity quicker and easier. Assume the model projection turns out to be correct, then the herd immunity can be attained when 40% of the population is immune to the virus. That is better than the situation in which 75% or more of the population must be immune to the virus to attain herd immunity.

 

The first and second quarters had significantly less traffic so we got a refund check from our car insurance company. Did you get one too?

I also noticed that with the schools and many offices closed, we're not seeing as many gun killings. As Alabama opened up, gun deaths are returning. But these are informal observations from news local to Huntsville, AL.

Our supermarkets and shops require a mask to enter and Costco enforces it inside. We've also stopped visiting the bars and restaurants that have no empty seats or tables to enforce internal spacing. In Huntsville, we avoid "West End Bar and Grill" and "Humphries" except in the dead time 2-4 PM. Favorites like "1892" and "Guadalajara" have and enforce spacing. Of course this is individual choice.

My expectation is there will be a Thanksgiving bump that is likely to saturate our hospitals in about a 7-10 days. The dead will arrive just in time for Christmas and New Years. Then it will repeat in January. Martin Luther King will be a grim holiday based on typical 4-6 lag in deaths.

I'm not expecting any vaccination improvements until February as they typically take ~3 weeks for peak effect. Worse, the two shot versions with 30 days in-between, well do the math and it comes out to February. I won't be relaxing until March-April.

This pandemic is an IQ test too. Those who choose dodgy sources have volunteered for a well earned, Darwin Award. But one is not guaranteed. Happily, my wife was recently sent to a nursing home, probably one of the safer places in the USA, if lonely, to be.

Bob Wilson

 

That is the same as your 2018 link. I don't see anything pointing to 2020 there. Did you paste the wrong link?

The part I'm challenging is this:

which is in considerable disagreement with my first CDC link in post #3040, where Table 1 shows more than 100k more all-cause deaths in a 24 day shorter timespan -- and it is still an undercount, due to many reports for the most recent weeks still not yet submitted or processed.


My label of scam or fraud is a response to a certain very prominent political person who recently (last month) misrepresented the CDC's provisional death counts for this year, for a clearly fraudulent purpose. And unfortunately, others have repeated those figures without understanding that they were misrepresented.

 

This 'reconciliation' is just a wild goose chase, or a snipe hunt, until the premise "the yearly #'s are so similar" is established.

What I have been pointing out is that, from the CDC data I am seeing, that premise is false. This year's deaths are not similar to the previous couple years. Rather, they are up more than 300,000.

If you have a URL to your claimed 2020 numbers from the CDC, please post it. Your previous link doesn't lead immediately to such figures, but only to prior year figures.

 

THIS.

The "take away" for me is that ALL of the news media seems to be stuck on "reporting" the cumulative totals.
I don't want to have to do the math to figure out what the TREND line is doing.
I want to know what happened YESTERDAY.......or the 5 day average .........of hospitalizations and deaths.

 

It is still not clear.
In fact, it makes no sense whatsoever.
In any given demographic, heard immunity IS what it IS.
How you get to the "magic number" doesn't affect what the number IS.

NOW......if you can charge the demographic by changing other factors, like peoples activities then you can change the critical threshold.
But that is not "pure" heard immunity because that is changing the rules as you go along.

 

I think you need to study what the herd immunity threshold is and is not. The herd immunity threshold is not a fixed number. Certainly, it is not a "magic number" to aim for. In fact, the real herd immunity threshold for a given incident of a communicable disease is likely to be revealed "after the fact" only years after the incident of an outbreak (or pandemic in the case of COVID-19) subsides. In a classical definition, it is a theoretical percentage of immune people in a given population in which a mathematical model projects that the spreading of communicable disease stops or declines even if preventative measures such as social distancing, face masks, or even future vaccination are stopped. The threshold changes dynamically as the R0 number is not a fixed number for a given communicable disease. The classic herd immunity threshold is defined by the formula (R0 − 1)/R0, but without knowing the exact R0 for a given population, it is impossible to predict the precise number for the threshold. Furthermore, the classic herd immunity formula assumes a homogeneous population with 100% random mixing, which almost never happens in real society. So, even if the precise R0 number is known, the real herd immunity threshold can not be known by a simple formula.

 

No, I think I need to stop worrying about the off the wall "stuff" that folks post in places like this.
When the disease is stupidity, there is no herd immunity.
And it is HIGHLY contagious.

 

Calm my friend, there will always be a mix. Give the clueless the facts and data with references. If they persist, let other pickup the weight. There is always ignore user if the signal-to-noise ratio becomes CB radio.

Bob Wilson

 

yes, let us ignore science, if it bothers our sensibilities

 

If I seemed a bit brusque here, it stems in part from a certain misrepresentation, that the total death rate this year is similar to other years, has been thoroughly debunked here, yet keeps coming back like a zombie. Deaths are running much higher this year than any recent year.

I posted this chart in early May:



Here is the latest updated chart, very clearly showing many more deaths this year than previous years:



Pulling out the spreadsheet version of the plotted data, I find (*):
2,846,000 deaths in all 2018,
2,861,000 deaths in all 2019, and
2,825,000 to just November 14 in 2020.

At current rates, 2020's deaths toll exceeded all of 2018 by November 17, and exceed all of 2019 by November 19. And with six+ more weeks of 2020 to go, on a track to 3,200,000 by December 31.

(*) data is tabulated weekly, so I prorated the weeks crossing year-end boundaries. Because of reporting and processing lags, data for the past couple months suffer varying degrees of incompleteness, so this CDC-NCHS program uses estimates for not-yet-reported figures. Different CDC programs will have slightly different annual totals.


This link, previously posted in August, continues to update, and indicates 339,000 excess deaths so far:
True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 339,000

 

No corrected link for 2020 has been forthcoming, so I'll show what I strongly suspect was the likely source, erroneously presented. If anyone can show me wrong, please do so! I could use the additional data sources.

This CDC page shows Covid-19 and Total deaths for the Covid-19 era. Yesterday it showed 2,567,046 total all-cause deaths to Nov 14, over 100k more than the above claim. Today's update shows 2,571,437 deaths to Nov 14, reflecting additional reports for Nov 14 and earlier now being tabulated.

The data is tabulated weekly, ending on Saturdays, not on Fridays such as Nov 13. So I suspect that someone actually pulled figures when this line (snipped today) said Nov 13, and at that time covered deaths only through Nov 7:


But note the top of this CDC Table 1: it starts on the week ending Feb 1, a.k.a. starting Jan 26, not Jan 1.

In short, I believe Hill's claimed 2020 all-cause deaths was not for January 1 to November 13, but was instead just January 26 to November 7, a whole month less than how it was presented here. And pulled about Nov13-16, when October and November figures were still so preliminary that they were missing many reports not yet submitted and processed. From other CDC pages (see my previous post), I believe a more realistic Jan1-Nov14 Total all-cause death toll is 2,825,000+. I.e. several hundred thousand deaths more than by the same dates in 2018 and 2019. Check back in a couple weeks for better figures.

Again, if anyone can show me wrong, please do so! I could use the additional data sources.

 

'cdc report states that coronavirus was in the u.s in mid december'

 

I could easily believe that, just by how beautifully the known case numbers fit an exponential curve during late February to late March ... roughly doubling every 2 to 3 days like clockwork over four straight weeks. 16 on 2/27, 30 on 3/1, 73, 172, 336 ... ~ 14k on 3/19, 26k, 44k, 84k.

I might have expected at least the early end of that curve to have been less of a pretty fit if those had really been the first 16 or 30 or 73 cases around, just because at numbers that small there could be enough variation from local circumstances to obscure an underlying shape. But it's less surprising if those were the first 16, 30, ... detected cases sampled from a larger ongoing exponential spread.

 

it makes sense with people coming and going to china everyday, and a very intense business area for u.s companies.

 

Or elsewhere.

"... sequences from cases in the New York City metropolitan area during the COVID-19 outbreak in spring 2020. The majority of cases had no recent travel history or known exposure, and genetically linked cases were spread throughout the region. Comparison to global viral sequences showed that early transmission was most linked to cases from Europe. Our data are consistent with numerous seeds from multiple sources and a prolonged period of unrecognized community spreading."

 

no doubt, china is a very busy international destination for both capitalists and communists alike