Hydrogen Cars - Worse than Manufacturers Let On

when flat screen tv's first came out, they were big bucks. but it was believed at the time that all that was required was a growth in sales, mass production and tech advances.

that model seems to fit bev's more than fuel cells.

perhaps toyota once thought that anyone could make a bev, and that might mark the end of automobile companies. so convince easily duped (and well paid off) pols to go for the complicated fuel cell, which would keep small players out.
als, it seems to have backfired on them. the handwriting might be on the wall though, and major manufacturers might be going the way of the horse and buggy.

 

can't blame them really, they're just following the lead of tobacco et al.

 

Boy almost 3 years ago this post was started. Looks like a lot can happen in 3 years. 10k Mirai Great cells on the road not counting Honda Clarity and Hyundai’s SUV. Talk of the trucking industry turning away from Plugin Trucks to Hydrogen power. New Hydrogen stations opening up throughout California. The Hydrogen Revolution is just starting. What an amazing time to be alive to witness this.
Plug Power CEO says the hydrogen industry is 'just beginning'

 

Boy almost 3 years ago this post was started. Looks like a lot can happen in 3 years. 10k Mirai Great cells on the road not counting Honda Clarity and Hyundai’s SUV. Talk of the trucking industry turning away from Plugin Trucks to Hydrogen power. New Hydrogen stations opening up throughout California. The Hydrogen Revolution is just starting. What an amazing time to be alive to witness this.
Plug Power CEO says the hydrogen industry is 'just beginning'

 

So many posts! Well I guess the powers that be wanted my post to be seen

 

The picture you speak of was of new cars for sale on a storage lot, not CPO’s. With the deals on CPO’s being offered they are actually attracting new buyers. The owners who return the CPO’s are buying new or another CPO to replace the lease returns. As to the above chart, the sales are holding but with the newly 2021 redesigned Mirai coming out soon that will slow the sales down. 2021 Mirai - Lexus looks, 5 seater, 400 mile range, rear wheel drive and fueling in 5 minutes. Sounds like a winner.

 

Over 90% of Mirai buyers are leasing. All their choosing to get another car says is that the free fuel and other incentives are worth more than holding on to their current car, and paying out of pocket for fuel. Hydrogen cars have been getting free fuel since they became available to the public. Maintaining that incentive isn't sustainable.

 

Sure it is. even if toyota leases 50,000 fuel cell vehicles and each requires $15/kg fuel subsidy on a 15000 mile/year fuel subsidy, that is $3,300/vehicle/year or only $170M/year toyota pays for fuel subsidies. They likely spent billions in R&D on fcv like GM so they can sustain that for awhile. Toyota had net profit of $17B on sales of $272B in 2019. Now they can't afford it if they get sales like tesla, it kill their stock price, but no one thinks that is likely unless the price of hydrogen fueling drops greatly.

 

I also hadn't considered the value of ZEV and CAFE credits. With those, I guess Toyota could afford to give even new Mirai away for effectively free.

This doesn't really help the adoption of hydrogen cars by the public though. It puts cars on the road, but the majority of people getting them will just go back to a gasser without those incentives. Even if the hydrogen cars reached cost parity with gas models, as the refueling network will still be limited, as will likely be the selection FCEV models to choose from. Which I think was the point I was actually trying to make.

 

I'm assuming you mean new Mirai, not used. Used were practically selling for free if you count the fuel card some months ago at Longo...



moto g(7) power ?

 

Yes, I was referring to new car 'sales'. The CPO's are a great deal, but used cars getting resold doesn't expand the market on their own.

 

If I lived in California and mostly needed to drive within the San Francisco to Los Angeles area, a three year, leased Miri would make sense ... pizza, Uber/Lyft, delivery service. But my transportation requirements span all 49 states.

Bob Wilson

 

They do when they are being bought and the original owners are returning to buy or lease another Mirai.

 

You stole my line that I posted several days ago on where are all the Tesla cheerleaders in this forum of 100k members

 

Say what you will but the 2021 will sell and will start the Hydrogen revolution in this country alone with many Europe countries.

 

Out of England today

Boris Johnson, prime minister, this week will lay out his plans for a “green industrial revolution”, and has pledged to make a “big bet” on technologies such as hydrogen, which is emerging as an area of global interest as countries adopt targets to halt carbon emissions