SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

I don’t think we have to worry about a 1918-like pandemic at this point. For the US, we’re going to end up somewhere between 1957 and 1918 in terms of deaths. That still leaves a lot of room, because (by population percentage) 10x more people were killed in the 1918 flu than were killed in the 1957 flu. Worldwide, it looks like we’re on target for somewhere between 1968 and 1957 in terms of worldwide death percentage. 2 million deaths worldwide would scale with the 1968 flu and 3 million would scale from the 1957 flu. Unlike the deadly 1018 flu, covid gives every indication of causing the most deaths on its first wave, and case fatality rates are going down in most places.

Since worldwide infection rates have continued to rise, we’re not yet at the halfway point of this pandemic. But there is good news for hard hit countries, and it seems unlikely that we will see anything like the 1918 flu as a result of covid.

 

bad day in ma

 

Vitamin D levels peaked in northern hemisphere in September. It's downhill from here.

 

fda approves remdesivir despite who saying it is ineffective

 

Ok.

Bob Wilson

 

Something to read for those who still think the herd immunity to COVID-19 without a vaccine is a good idea. It's NOT.

The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19
nature.com/articles/

 

Source: Pinpointing the 'silent' mutations that gave the coronavirus an evolutionary edge: RNA folding may help explain how the coronavirus became so hard to stop after it spilled over from wildlife to humans -- ScienceDaily

Now, researchers at Duke University have identified a number of "silent" mutations in the roughly 30,000 letters of the virus's genetic code that helped it thrive once it made the leap -- and possibly helped set the stage for the global pandemic. The subtle changes involved how the virus folded its RNA molecules within human cells.

For the study, published Oct. 16 in the journal PeerJ, the researchers used statistical methods they developed to identify adaptive changes that arose in the SARS-CoV-2 genome in humans, but not in closely related coronaviruses found in bats and pangolins.
...
The new study likewise flagged mutations that altered the spike proteins, suggesting that viral strains carrying these mutations were more likely to thrive. But with their approach, study authors Berrio, Wray and Duke Ph.D. student Valerie Gartner also identified additional culprits that previous studies failed to detect.

The researchers report that so-called silent mutations in two other regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, dubbed Nsp4 and Nsp16, appear to have given the virus a biological edge over previous strains without altering the proteins they encode.
...​

This critter is a moving target so last years herd is this years feast. But as we gain insights, it can be held at bay with good hygiene: (1) masks and (2) distance.

Bob Wilson

 

Interesting article.

 

just please keep a hospital bed open for me

 

Then don't go to Salt Lake City, or Coeur d'Alene.

 

don't you worry, i'm staying right here in the land of (semi) sanity. we do have our trumpers

 

Fauci says it might be time to mandate masks as Covid-19 surges across US - CNN

 

There is additional modelling data in support of this. This one from the Royal Society in the UK from a few months back.



Third graph on the second row shows that everyone using a covering that is only 75% effective can drop the R-value from 4 to below 1; thus achieving the same as, but without the need, for a wider lockdown!

Paper from the Royal Society here: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376

 

Yes, we could do this if only we would do this . . .

 

it ain't that hard, i don't know what peoples problem is. but then again, i don't drive a pick up truck and carry an ak-47. so who am i to know?

 

How do the amount of testings relate to deaths / cases
.

 

According to current estimates compiled by the CDC, the greatest likelihood is we will hit 250,000 deaths 2-3 weeks after November 9. If we keep roughly the same track over the winter, that puts the death total on or around 350,000 by mid March, which still isn’t good, but it’s a whole lot less than the 500,000+ suggested by the estimate a few posts above.

COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths | CDC