For those of us outside California, it isn't surprising at all, and that surprise becomes lower as you move away from CARB states. Until recently, the majority of BEVs offered in the US were only available in California. Toyota and FCA still don't offer one beyond that state. For the ones that are available nationwide, annual sales over 20k considered a very good year. The car companies and/or dealers really didn't want to sell them. Then Tesla isn't allowed a sales presence in some states, yet many people in those states do buy them. The Union of Concerned Scientists estimated that 40% of US households could have an 80 mile ranged BEV as one of their cars. That's about 51 million households across the country. In the time that market gets tapped out, we can address the needs of the other households in order to make a BEV work for them. Then don't forget PHEVs. Hydrogen cars have a huge hurdle before they can even dream of the potential market BEVs now have. Without a hydrogen station, there can be no sales. Even where there are stations, prospective buyers were turned down for not being close enough to a station. Of course they will help with consumer knowledge. When Prius sales were going down with the price of gas, the only thing keeping the hybrid segment down with it were the introduction of new hybrid models from different companies. A wider selection brings more people in. Way to ignore the virus in the corner. Toyota's sales are down by the same rate as Tesla's this year. The closest hydrogen station to me is two states away. It will take over three hours to get there, and require a full tank in a Mirai to make the trip one way. Because dealers don't want to sell them. It was dealer associations that pushed for states to keep Tesla out. Dealerships make their living off of the service department. BEVs have a fraction of the maintenance requirements of an ICE car. It is basically just wipers, tires, and coolant. There is no motor oil, transmission fluid, or spark plugs, and the brakes have the long life because of the regen system. Long term, there might be a battery replacement, but even eventual capacity loss may not make the BEV inoperal for the owner. Dealerships tolerate PHEVs because they still have an engine. They'll also accept hydrogen FCEVs because those will require more general maintenance than a BEV. The USDoT requires annual inspections of pressurized gas fuel systems for road vehicles. The fuel tanks themselves have set end dates to service life that can't legally be exceeded. The fuel cell itself can see a wattage drop of 10% in 60k miles. FCEV bus programs ended because of the maintenance costs.
My situation is ideal, not the norm. But people are buying or leasing Hydrogen vehicles. So some how they are getting hydrogen. Maybe not around the corner, but within an acceptable range.
The economics means hydrogen will be coming from fossil fuels for some time. Then many countries in Europe are banning ICE cars, so supplying hydrogen is a way for an European oil company to continue its business. Total SE is worth $273 billion with a net income of $11 billion. The funding round for Hyzon raised over $15 million, and had 3 other groups involved besides Total. Toyota sold another 1500 in 9 days? Impressive. Toyota Mirai US car sales figures For hydrogen cars to have a chance of succeeding, there needs to be a lot more stations than in just one state of the continental US. At least coverage of the West Coast and Northeast is needed.
And the Mirai is by far the best selling hydrogen car. Compare that with the 10k+ each sold of the Leaf, Bolt, Model S, Model X, & Model 3 last year in the US. Heck, from a sales perspective, compare the Mirai to the Model X, which is by far Tesla’s least reliable vehicle and its most expensive currently shipping. And both the Model X and the Mirai came out roughly the same time. And yet Tesla has sold 85000 Model Xs in that time while Toyota has sold 8000 Mirais. There’s just no comparison. I’m not criticizing your choice of vehicle. Obviously, it works well for you and that’s great. But electric cars seem to have a much bigger market than hydrogen cars, and I don’t see that changing.
I’m curious, what do you expect to happen in three months? Have you looked back at the beginnings of the Tesla Stock thread? It is an enlightening read.
To go back to one of the early posts in this thread, yes every manufacturer has its "how could they build that" models. I own one of the models from Toyota. They have just announced a maybe fix as available for car first produced in late 2019 The software/firmware problem was causing an overnight battery run down. Hundreds of thousands of cars subject to the defect. Cause not something that would have even been available in 2000. Tesla would have OTAed it. I'd have to take mine in to get it patched. I own a 2019 built in June 2019 and it has a hardware problem first widely reported online in July of 2019 and to my dealer shortly after. Toyota has acknowledged the problem, no fix available yet. Build quality is one thing. Responsiveness when a problem is detected affects customer satisfaction.
Seems incredibly vague. You implied bad things in “3 months”. When asked, you obfuscate. If you have confidence in your prediction, spell it out. If you are simply trying to sow doubt, no need for further avoidance of what you meant.
I don’t have a crystal ball, but if you read the writing on the walls and listen to financial experts you have to take notice that there is a very good possibility that the stock market will crash.
This is why many Tesla owners, especially techies, are not bent out of shape by a defect ... as long as it is reported and fixed. For example, my reproducible phantom brake problem was fixed with the Tesla GPS update and not returned. The problem was in one lane of a limited access, 50 mph cross-town road, it would suddenly use the 40 mph speed limit of the access road. One lane over, no phantom brake pause. Reporting a technical problem needs more effort than just complaining. Bob Wilson
Not seeing any such consensus or significant percent saying anything like that. If you believe it, the experts do however recommend you put your money on it. Why miss such a great opportunity?
I suspect @orenji is trying to talk some of us into investing in the hydrogen 'dream.' There is always NKLA stock. Bob Wilson
