Tesla Fires a Shot across the Competition's Bow

Vague claims like that are just rhetoric, especially when it comes to standards. Note how Tesla uses CCS in Europe.

 

Because regulations require them too. Maybe Tesla would have used CCS everywhere if it had been available when the Model S was in development.

It shows Tesla isn't having any problem selling cars without subsidies.

As for early adopter vs. mainstream, Tesla has sold over a half million cars. The Prius was half through the generation 2 cycle when it had sold that many. It was selling over 100k a year by then. Isn't your definition of mainstream sales 60k/yr? The Model 3 sold over 100k/yr.

Either Tesla is selling to mainstream buyers, or the early adopter buyer segment is quite large.

 

Actually, about 900K by now.

7 of last 8 quarters over 75K each

Mike

 

Perhaps a few more: Tesla produces its 1 millionth electric car - Electrek

Tesla announced that it produced its 1 millionth electric car — becoming the first automaker to achieve the milestone.

Only a few years ago, many people didn’t believe that Tesla could produce electric vehicles in any meaningful numbers, but the automaker managed to ramp up three electric vehicle programs: Model S, Model X, and Model 3.

Now it is about to launch its fourth electric vehicle, the Model Y, and it is doing it on the momentum of a new milestone.

Today, CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla produced its 1 millionth car and released a picture of the car, a Model Y, and the team who made it:

Congratulations Tesla team on making our 1,000,000th car!! pic.twitter.com/5M99a9LLQi

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 10, 2020
​

Bob Wilson

 

I was looking at just the US market as the topic was about the impact of the loss of the federal tax credit.

 

just read a barrons article regarding range. the author who had a spark and now drives a bolt agrees with musk. 300 miles will be the new norm

 

That's the difference between early-adopter and mainstream.

To compete on terms of apples-to-apples selling, one cannot be subsidized and the other not.

 

The federal subsidies for Tesla were gone in January 2020.
Tesla's sales are down 22% compared to last year, but there is also the pandemic causing economic slowdown.
To isolate that variable, I looked at Toyota's US sales. They are also down 22%.
So Tesla's reduced performance this year is do to the pandemic, and they are selling cars fine without the subsidy.

There are state subsidies. If you have sales breakdown for Tesla and Toyota by state, go ahead and share. For a complete picture, we should also take into account the higher registration fees some states place on BEVs.

 

You're still avoiding the who part.

 

Addressed it already.

Who was buying gen2 Prii when they hit 100k annual sales?

 

No, that was just a statistical mislead. Percentages don't tell the real story. I'm not falling for the "what about" bait either.

Appealing to a secondary market can be far more difficult than these first. Loss of subsidy doesn't take into account the other factors at play either, like growing competition and a wider array of requirements.

This is a moving target situation with the need for significant growth... actual numbers in the millions... not a vague percent.

 

I think you guys are reading way too much into this.

A guy who needs to sell a lot of batteries also happens to have control over content decisions in the cars. He's found the versions that were already selling themselves well, and altered them to include more of those batteries that he really needs to unload.

 

Is the Tesla warranty transferable when sold privately? They are the only new parts providers.

 

You must be getting soft in your retirement.

 

These were likely patents filed after that time. Companies are not obligated to release everything for free once they release one or more products. Otherwise Microsoft would have totally collapsed after the free Windows 10 downgrade.

 

John, to make your points easier to understand, why don’t you give us concrete definitions instead of vague catch phrases.
How do you measure “early adopter” sales vs “the masses”?
How will we know when that shift happens? Is it a quantity of sales? Price point of their least expensive product? Average price point of their entire vehicle line up?

It seems that Tesla, years ago, reached your definition for “mass production” (which was 60,000/year). You then shifted to this nebulous term of moving beyond early adopters.

Please help us understand your definition.

If you are sticking with the classic definition, here is a wiki article on it. Diffusion of innovations - Wikipedia

In the classic definition we are in the early stages of early adopters.
Of course, by that definition I believe hybrids are also still in the early adopter phase (granted, much later in the early adopter phase).

Correction to the above.
Plugin Electric sales in 2019 were very close to sales of hybrids, in the US in 2019. Sitting around 2% & 2.5% respectively.
Hybrid electric vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia

 

This is still just basic economics. No amount of trying to make it personal changes that.

Fleets must transition and milestones are simply how progress is gauged. Once one is reached, that next will likely present new challenges. Remember, it becomes more of a business matter as the engineering barriers are overcome.

In other words, use some critical thinking. Look at what has changed and what remains. Don't use the excuse of not understanding, despite having so much exposure to the topic.

 

60,000/year has always (for the past 15 years) represented a minimum-viable-product measure for this industry in this market. It's a rough gauge of an automaker having reached the level of sustainable profit.

Again, that measure is nothing but a milestone. Growth beyond that is essential. GM was not able to achieve that with either Volt itself or Voltec, so they eventually cut losses and moved one.

Also again, the goal is to replace traditional offerings. Token offerings don't achieve that. Look at the production. Look at how much is changing to clean the fleet. Recognize how "shoot across the bow" can be nothing but a lot of bark and little to no bite.

 

Is the goal really to replace traditional offerings? It may be your goal. But in my world, the goal is to make a profit and I may be better able to achieve that by selling at a non-Corolla price point to buyers new to the brand and aspiring for the status that an upscale car is seen to provide.

How many new plants are the traditional manufacturers building? How much have their battery acquisition capabilities (buy or build) improved? How much downsizing are they being forced to undergo? How many "we are 2 years behind" quotes do you hear?

By the measurements of profit, investment, increasing sales, increasing capabilities, increasing models, stock price, mind share etc I think we have to say Tesla is a success.

My son is looking and he is an engineer and his wife is the most frugal loan analyst I've ever known. I (at 77) am looking.

BTW, Corollas sold in the US were 304k in 2019. Tesla 192k. Creeping up there.