SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

I commented on that in this thread. SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Page 93 | PriusChat
The flue death number published by CDC is an estimation using their propriety formula which I still think is inflated for motivation by the CDC to promote more flu vaccine. The number is not ot actual count of death and flu test confirmation like COVID-19.

 

Laughed at *proprietary*

 

If there is a better word, please suggest. CDC does not publish how they "estimated" flue death numbers, even though they clearly states it is an estimation not the actual count. It is certainly nonstandard and controlled by one particular organization.

Adjective
proprietary (comparative more proprietary, superlative most proprietary)

1. Of or relating to property or ownership.
   proprietary rights
2. Owning something; having ownership.
   the proprietary class
3. Created or manufactured exclusively by the owner of intellectual property rights, as with a patent or trade secret. quotations ▼
   The continuous profitability of the company is based on its many proprietary products.
4. Nonstandard and controlled by one particular organization.
   a proprietary extension to the HTML standard for Web page structure
5. Privately owned.
   a proprietary lake; a proprietary chapel
6. (of a person) Possessive, jealous, or territorial.

Edit: Thanks to @Trollbait, I stand corrected on the statement above. On the contrary to what I said, the CDC does have publications on the methodology used to estimate the flu associated death.

 

The CDC does explain their method, and it is based research that has been peer reviewed.
How CDC Estimates the Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the U.S. | CDC

It is proprietary, but not in the sense most people come across the term, which is referring to a trade secret.

 

Thanks for correcting this important fact. A few weeks ago, when I was doing search in CDC fluNet cite, I just could not land myself to this page. I was taken from one link to another and back to the same page in a loop never getting the methodology description. This certainly changes my view of proprietariness of its method. Still the method described in those refs in which mathematical models to estimate the flu associated death are quite different from how the COVID-19 associated death is being counted. Although I have not come across the actual methodology used to tally the number, either by counting or by estimation, of the COVID-19 associated death in the US, my understanding is that for COVID-19, it is the actual count of death reported by healthcare facility or doctors and/or health department of states with confirmed cases of COVID-19. I am not sure if it includes probable cases of COVID-19 as well.

 

The COVID count is an actual from what I've read.
While that CDC flu count is an estimate trying to account for unreported cases.

 

Didn't laugh at the accuracy of the term....just it's use in this context........

 

Are we closer to herd immunity than we think? A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 | Science

 

From the paper: "We estimate that if R0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be around 43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous immunization of the population."

Let me see... 43% of population of the US would be.... 142,335,148. The cumulative COVID-19 confirmed cases in the US is 2,642,705 as of today. That still leaves 139,692,443 more to go. Even if we assume under-counting COVID-19 infected population, say 10X more are actually infected than confirmed cases, that still leaves over 115million more to be infected to attain the herd immunity. Hummm...

 

Herd immunity is very interesting.

Do you guys think in a large country like the US it is possible for some areas to develop the immunity while other areas have escalating cases as they develop immunity in their area?

 

I would think so. Virus does not know the border of the country or state or city for that matter. As long as the population congregating in the given area is fairly stable, virus can't spread more once majority of population become immune to the virus either by being infected once or by immunization.

The problem is, are we ever going to get that many infected individuals without immunization? I think NYC is the hardest hit area in the US. The number of population in NYC is 8.4million. The number of confirmed case of COVID-19 in NYC is only 220K. Even if we assume 10 times more people have been actually infected, that is still only 2.2million, too small number to reach the heard immunity threshold.

 

No. My estimate is we’ll see deaths greater than one million give current policies. For herd immunity to work, the R < 1.0 and bad public policy means it isn’t happening in some counties.

The early areas, New England minus a Maine, figured out what works and that is their public policy. The other areas did not ‘lessons learned.’

I had high hopes for California but that has not proved out. Certainly some counties do 10x worse than their neighbors.

Bob Wilson

 

Or, lining up the decimal points....

Code:

142,335,148.
  2,642,705.

... not quite two more zeros. Like a zero and a half, taking the mantissa into account.

We were adding about a zero every ten days through most of March. We're not back on that trajectory at the moment, but it illustrates what's achievable depending on how we play the cards.

 

Sorry, I don't get what your are getting at. Like I said, even if there are actually 10x more infected people in the US than confirmed cases, it still is not enough to reach the 43% of the population threshold. 10x more is what CDC has suggested recently, but most academic papers I've read estimate 2-4 times more than reported cases.

 

Mainly what I was getting at is that in post #2289 you essentially subtracted: herd immunity at 142,335,148 minus where we are today at 2,642,705 ... a difference of 139,692,443, which looks like a lot of ground to cover.

The thing is, the natural mathematics of a pandemic virus, if it has its druthers, is exponential. That growth is not additive but multiplicative on a steady time scale.

What I'm getting at is that when you divide 142,335,148 by 2,642,705, you find we have not even two powers of ten to cover to get from here to there. A factor of 54 different.

If you look back at February/March we were putting on a factor of ten every seven to 13 days. We are thankfully not back to that rate at the moment.

Were we to return to that rate, a mere factor of 54 growth could fit in before my next load of laundry.

 

at 10,000 case/day, florida should be at herd immunity in no time

 

Homes for sale ... cheap?

 

Ironic situation-

Our state has asked anyone who visited Myrtle Beach to self quarantine for 14 days as our state is experiencing 4 clusters of Covid outbreak in different communities from people who went on a 'vacation' to Myrtle Beach and then returned home to their community spreading the virus throughout their home communities.

The ironic part - today siting at home watching Dr Phil (please forgive me) multiple commercials during the show breaks to visit Myrtle Beach for your next vacation . Sometimes things that happen are hard to believe.

 

Most likely not.
Up to 80% of people with coronavirus have no symptoms, Matt Hancock warns as NHS Test and Trace &#x27;misses thousands&#x27;
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