SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

and that's with cali and texas having the largest recent increases of all 50 states

 

Alabama county, COVID-19 cases per 100,000:

• 103.5 - Madison County (where we live)
• 2,981.7 - Lowndes County in the black belt

Alabama has lagged in SARS-CoV-2 testing but is working to catch up. Expect these numbers to grow.

Bob Wilson

 

I now have had the COVID-19 PCR test twice. Both times negative. With a universal testing policy in effect at our workplace, we have found less than 1% asymptomatic positives so far.

 

Source: Madison County leaders give COVID-19 update as Alabama cases rise | rocketcitynow.com

Author: Sydney Stallworth
Published: 5:15 PM CDT May 27, 2020
Updated: 6:47 PM CDT May 27, 2020

But, David Spillers says a lot of testing resources are used on those without symptoms. He says, “we've... tested close to 1,000 asymptomatic patients and we’ve had one test positive. So, clearly not the best use of testing.”​

I do not call this an "all clear" but is encouraging. Wider testing now that we've got more kits will reveal more cases but hopefully with better outcomes.

Bob Wilson

 

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8

Article
Published: 08 June 2020
This is an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. Nature Research are providing this early version of the manuscript as a service to our authors and readers. . . .

The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic

Solomon Hsiang, Daniel Allen, Sébastien Annan-Phan, Kendon Bell, Ian Bolliger, Trinetta Chong, Hannah Druckenmiller, Luna Yue Huang, Andrew Hultgren, Emma Krasovich, Peiley Lau, Jaecheol Lee, Esther Rolf, Jeanette Tseng & Tiffany Wu
Nature (2020)Cite this article

Abstract
Governments around the world are responding to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic1 with unprecedented policies designed to slow the growth rate of infections. Many actions, such as closing schools and restricting populations to their homes, impose large and visible costs on society, but their benefits cannot be directly observed and are currently understood only through process-based simulations2–4. Here, we compile new data on 1,717 local, regional, and national non-pharmaceutical interventions deployed in the ongoing pandemic across localities in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, and the United States (US). We then apply reduced-form econometric methods, commonly used to measure the effect of policies on economic growth5,6, to empirically evaluate the effect that these anti-contagion policies have had on the growth rate of infections. In the absence of policy actions, we estimate that early infections of COVID-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 38% per day. We find that anti-contagion policies have significantly and substantially slowed this growth. Some policies have different impacts on different populations, but we obtain consistent evidence that the policy packages now deployed are achieving large, beneficial, and measurable health outcomes. We estimate that across these six countries, interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting roughly 530 million total infections. These findings may help inform whether or when these policies should be deployed, intensified, or lifted, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported7.​

Bob Wilson

 

'who official tells media that asymptomatic transmission is very rare'

washington post: 'after criticism, who clarifies statement on asymptomatic cases'

maria van kerkhove said she was responding to a journalists question, not stating a who policy.

bbc.com: 'harvard researchers suggest virus may have begun as early as august'

 

cnbc: 'former fda chief dr. scott gottlieb says he does not foresee the us shutting down again, and we will have to tolerate a certain level of spread until there is a vaccine.'

 

Did he say "spread" or "dead'?

The initial spread took out a lot of physicians, nurses, and other medical staff. Increase their exposure and further reduce the medical staff and there is a multiplier effect.

Bob Wilson

 

hopefully, prior experience and increased ppe will reduce the carnage on the second go around.

 

What was the symptomatic positives?

Mike

 

None so far.

 

The world's daily case of COVID-19 yesterday hit the new high. 154.2k cases. This pandemic is far from being over yet.

 

no question. and no answers

 

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-launches-neutralizing-antibody-test-to-advance-covid-19-therapies/

“The neutralizing antibody test is a critical addition to our COVID-19 testing, expanding on the capabilities of the molecular tests used to diagnose active infection and the serology test, which indicates previous infection by identifying antibodies for the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” says William Morice, II, M.D., Ph.D., president of Mayo Clinic Laboratories. “This new test provides us with incredibly important information about how effective a person’s antibodies are at neutralizing the virus. This will help us identify optimal convalescent plasma donors and ultimately help assess the efficacy of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.”

 

With effective tests, we can do contact tracing that identifies the 'carriers'. Home quarantine reduces the R factor leading to the results we see in China. A local peak in cases is less important than reducing the spread.

The summer solstice, the longest day, is rapidly approaching. This provides enough UV to pretty well handle outside surfaces . . . not people but what they touch.

Bob Wilson

 

just wondering - when a doctor catches the Wuhan, is it workers comp? How does one prove it didn't happen down at that grocery store, presuming symptoms are bad enough to know that (s)he has it.
.

 

docs probably get nothing, it comes with the territory. you don't like it, you're fired

 

I, like others, am uncertain whether I may have had a mild/low symptom form of the disease after a Caribbean cruise in February and am thus looking for an accurate test of covid-19 antibodies. Checking the Food and Drug Administration web site, I found that 5 antibody tests had been examined for specificity and sensitivity (low false positive and false negative errors). Of those five tests, three were subsequently withdrawn from the market and the remaining two are:


I read PDF of the research process and it seemed legitimate , but I was unable to download the PDF and thus took the above screen shots. If anyone has more information about an antibody test with good specificity and sensitivity As assessed by an independent lab, could you please post it as quite a few of us are in this situation, I believe.

 

I would check with your doctor.

Mike