SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

While many of the mutations found in SARS-CoV-2 are indeed polymorphism without a change in coded amino acids, there are many mutations that have been identified that change amino acid coded thus possible structural changes. For example, in the paper by Phan Genetic diversity and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 - ScienceDirect identified 93 mutations in 86 complete SARS-CoV-2 sequences analyzed. Citing from the paper "Forty-two missense mutations were identified in all the major non-structural and structural proteins, except the envelope protein. Twenty-nine missense mutations were in the ORF1ab polyprotein, eight in the spike surface glycoprotein, one in the matrix protein, and four in the nucleocapsid protein."

When designing a vaccine, researchers try to use the invariable region of SARS-CoV-2 as an antigen to elicit specific immunological responses. Region of spike glycoprotein is thought to be a good target for this, however, the result of the above-mentioned paper indicates that this region too have undergone a mutation that possibly resulted in conformational changes in this region.

That being said, the SARS-CoV-2 genome is relatively stable compared to other hypermutable viruses like the influenza virus, making it more likely to succeed developing some form of the vaccine even if it is not 100% effective. After all, we have a very rapid production of annual flu vaccines that are somewhat effective.

 

what is the difference between people who don't have symptoms, mild symptoms, stong symptoms, deadly symptoms?
is it their dna, viral loading, different virus mutations, underlying health, age/immune strength, something else, or all of the above?

 

No definitive answers yet. And I suspect, like any complex disease, there are multiple factors that affect susceptibility and severity of the disease progression and final outcome. But there is a very high interest in looking into the genetic susceptibility of individuals. 23andMe, a company providing DNA testing (not a medical diagnosis but just health information for susceptibility and risk based on genetic makeup of the individual) just opened the study to recruit volunteers who tested positive on the COVID-19 diagnostic test to donate their DNA samples.

23andMe COVID-19 Study

 

All of the above. There are three big categories of people who do badly with it - the elderly, people who are already in bad health, and (presumably) persons with compromised immune systems, although they are not making the press. Everyone else has something like a 99% chance of getting it and shrugging it off without assistance.

For the 1% that gets it bad, there is some thought that a lower initial exposure leads to milder symptoms, although given the speed with which it replicates in the body, this seems odd.

Mutations are not a big deal yet. However it is new to our kind and may still need to dial in to our exact chemistry. Lethality is not necessarily what it is dialing for so much as the ability to hang around and persist. Ten years from now we'll treat it as just another kind of flu and not worry about it.

 

Over the long run, given the ease and invisibility with which it spreads, I would expect the cases per million to be a little under a million per million. We have been talking about herd immunity, but those immune herders can still carry it around.

 

cdc revises projected death rate downwards, closer to the widely criticized stanford study

 

I can already hear the whistleblowing. CDC's scientists know better, I hope.
As stated in this article: Scientists Say New, Lower CDC Estimates For Severity Of COVID-19 Are Optimistic : Shots - Health News : NPR
"It's incomprehensible that the CDC's scientists would make such a rookie mistake that muddies their own data — unless politics is interfering with their ability to do their job," the Harvard Global Health Institute said in a newsletter Thursday.

 

we can move this discussion to the other thread if it becomes political, but i would hope that there is at least one scientist at the cdc with enough backbone to speak up.

my own feeling is that some feel it's more important to keep fighting the good fight, even if it means some amount of compromise.

 

As a study to compare and contrast, I live in Madison County: Two Alabama cities, two very different outbreaks - al.com

On Feb. 27, Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle held a press conference on the novel coronavirus. At the time, COVID-19 wasn’t a household term, so he spelled it for those who hadn’t heard of the disease. Alabama had no confirmed cases at that point; only 60 cases had been found in the United States.
. . .
Huntsville and Mobile, at opposite ends of the state, are the Alabama’s second and third biggest population centers. Their metro areas each contain more than 400,000 people.
. . .
But after nearly three months in shutdown, their coronavirus outcomes are wildly different: Madison has about 281 confirmed cases and four deaths, while similarly-sized Mobile has 1,773 confirmed cases and leads the state in deaths, at 104.
. . . ​

Bob Wilson

 

Given the technical challenges and directed political decisions, I'm not terribly interested in being an early adopter of the first, USA released, SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Perhaps after March-April 2021 but nothing before.

Bob Wilson

 

seems like most of the flu like viruses can morph every season. Like the flu, if it changes, last year's vaccine doesn't cut the mustard. That's one of the big complaints about flu vaccine .... little testing gets done by the time they roll it out. Many other drugs? They might have to be tested for years.
.

 

based on the sentiment of the country, you'll probably only get a 50% take rate. but those sentiments may change by the time a vaccine is available

 

it's not a given, but i like the scientific communities optimism

 

Reduces the number of glass vials required in half!

 

huh, glass factory outbreaks?

 

I had understood that much of that glass vial supply chain, like many others, is, um, er, "not domestic". And the same for the rubber stopper seals on top. Getting first-in-line priority for the products may be a bit difficult.

Somewhere in news snippets I saw some proposal to skip the glass bottles and load vaccines directly into the single use plastic syringes before distribution. Though not sure if that noticeably improves the overall supply chain issue.