SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

I didn't yet watch this, but am about to:
COVID-19: Battle on the Cruise Ship - NHK Documentary | NHK WORLD-JAPAN On Demand

Diamond Princess:
- 3,700 passengers and crew
- more than 700 were infected
- 13 people died

 

infection data unknown, but some educated 'guesses' at this point.

death rate meaningless, except to those who have died. without full testing and demographics, it's pointless, except to try and scare the populace.

98.7% of deaths have underlying health issues. not good for them, but a reality our medical ad scientific community continues to ignore.

'cdc changes language regarding surface infections, say human to human transmission is the biggest problem'

i won't be taking a cruise any time in the near future. disney has a disclaimer about reopening their parks: 'covid-19 can be deadly, and we are not responsible for infections'

perhaps cruise ships might add: 'and may not be returning to port'

 

scientists in the u/k recommend alternating 50 days of lock down and 30 days of fully open.

methinks they need an economics course

 

The flu and other infectious diseases are deadlier to those with under lying health problems. Its mortality rate, against the population as whole, is lower than COVID19's.

The death rate isn't meaningless. If it is higher than the typical flu, something people are already too blaise about, that tells you it is something to be concerned with. That is before considering things like the possibility of long term or permanent loss of lung capacity from COVID, something that will make your next flu or other deadlier.

 

agreed. but i don't mean the number of deaths are meaningless, i mean the rate is meaningless because the data is incorrect.
until we have complete testing (including antibody) along with demographics, we don't really know much

 

Yes, the level of testing means the actual rate for the US can be higher or lower. Same with how deaths are recorded. The same is likely happening with our seasonal flu numbers, which is why the CDC reports it has deaths from flu and pneumonia. The pneumonia did the final deed, but the person likely got it because they were sick with the flu. If they were found dead at home, a flu test probably wasn't done. I've had the flu, gone to the doctor, and wasn't tested for the virus.

We do have numbers from countries that are doing a better job of such, and while those are a range, the rate is worst than the flu.

 

it's too vague. give me numbers for the workforce so we can reopen safely (to some extent)

 

Yakima County, 140 miles inland from Seattle, now has the highest case rate of any county on the West Coast, and apparently growing rapidly.

63% of the county's jobs are in "essential" categories, so it did not shut down as much as other places.

 

New clusters of cases in a couple northeastern provinces of China seem to show longer incubation periods, allowing more time to spread before symptoms appear. And also showing different patterns of organ damage than were found in Wuhan. It is not yet clear if this stems from different mutations.

 

axios: airlines packing in customers like there's no coronavirus

 

rule 1) don't get in an enclosed space with a hundred other contaminated animals

 

Isn't that going to happen if businesses are allowed to open too soon, or will they move all their work outside to the parking lot?
Just saw a headline that Ford had to close a recently opened plant after two employees tested positive.

 

depends on the hvac system and how they handle social distancing and the like. i just feel that being on a plane is a disaster waiting to happen. quantity of people per cubic foot and length of exposure time.
i do agree there are a lot of scenarios where more cases will be created

 

the atlantic: 'cdc making a serious mistake, along with some state health departments, conflating viral and antibody test results in their data.'

'kristin nordlund, cdc spokesperson confirmed that thatwas the reason for the large discrepency between the cdc's testing numbers for florida, and florida's own numbers reported.
we hope to have the two seperated out over the next few weeks she said.'

'cdc had a page stating that positive tests reported were viral only. that page has been changed to include both.'



massachusetts completely revamped their dashboard this week, making it very difficult for the layperson who has been following the trends to keep up. some data that was being reported no longer is, and some new data is being reported.

 

The Ruby Princess was the biggest Covid19 incubation centre we really suffered in Australia because the passengers were allowed to travel where ever with no 14 day isolation first to sort out:
who had the virus but showed no symptoms
who had the virus in the early stages
who had the virus but were covering up the symptoms
This spread the virus across all states and created out breaks where no virus had been recorded previously.

The important part to keep in mind, why are cruise ships such great incubators? Is it the same air being circulated and carrying the infection throughout the ship? There were passengers who had been in full isolation for 14 days yet contracted the virus and it showed up when they left the ship and went into mandatory isolation for a further 14 days, meaning they contracted the disease while in isolation.
What is different between the air circulation on a cruise ship to a very large shopping centre and office building?

We had a major outbreak od Legionnaire's Disease in a major city a number of yrs back. It was traced to attending a certain shopping complex yet their air conditioner water towers were flushed and treated every week. The changed it to daily after daily testing was showing the tower was again infected. Turned out the problem was actually in a water tower in a much smaller shop some distance away, the big air circulation fans were actually dragging the contaminated water droplets into the centre's water tower. The is how easily these thing can be spread from one building to another till the whole city is infected. Contact tracing is not going to isolate these type of infection spreads, so until a region is declared virus free, any lifting of restrictions is really asking for the spread to ramp up well beyond the levels seen now.

Testing ratios is another B/S tool, numbers are meaningless, percentage of population is what will mean something, but will a single test be enough? What happens if the tested person contracts the virus after being tested? If that person is retested because they now show symptoms, does that add to the numbers and in turn alter the population percentage testing?

T1 Terry

 

Even if the individual rooms are fine, the food services and dining room surfaces and air circulation are probably sufficient to spread all these ship outbreak diseases. Covid-19 and noroviruses.

The crews are not similarly isolated, but must prepare and deliver meals to the customer rooms. These contaminated meals are likely sufficient to spread it to everyone on board.

 

some good news: 'preliminary clinical trials using ivig on adolescents with kawasaki like symptoms shows promise'

 

Targeting Immune Responses in Kids' COVID-19 Inflammatory Disorder | MedPage Today
Targeting Immune Responses in Kids' COVID-19 Inflammatory Disorder | MedPage Today