SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The daily White House briefing recently include several charts and other data displays. Is there a web site where those are archived and can be viewed? This is a serious question.

 

Thanks for looking there may be hope for you yet.

 

I'm not one to disagree with local experts.

 

These are countries that have passed peak, with several excluded by me because data still looks oisy. No large country was excluded

Gompertz inflections prepared 2020 April 6 based on
COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People
(that website graphics copyright Jens Roder)

... Day of inflection … Cases then … Projected final cases … Frac peak/final
Hubei ………….. Feb 7 …… 22112 ………. 68101 … 0.32
Korea ………….. Feb 29 …. 3150 ………….. 9410 … 0.33
Jordan …………. Mar 22 … 84 ………………. 358 …. 0.23
Lebanon ……….Mar 23 … 248 ……………... 709 …. 0.35
S Africa ……..… Mar 24 … 402 ……………. 1652 …. 0.24
Swiss …………… Mar 24 … 12104 ………. 27355 ….0.44
Italy ……………..Mar 24 … 63927 ..…… 180444 … 0.35
Costa Rica ……. Mar 25 … 177 …………….. 617 …. 0.29
Slovenia ………. Mar 25 … 480 ……………. 1564 … 0.31
Luxembourg … Mar 25 … 1099 …………. 3329 …. 0.33
Austria ………… Mar 25 … 5282 ………… 15198 … 0.35
Andorra ………..Mar 26 … 213 ……………… 614… 0.35
Malaysia ……… Mar 26 … 1796 ………….. 5572 … 0.32
Norway ……….. Mar 26 … 2916 ………….. 8929 … 0.33
Bulgaria ………..Mar 27…… 264 ……………. 797 … 0.33
Iceland ………… Mar 27…… 802 ………….. 2357 … 0.34
Latvia ………….. Mar 28 ….. 280 …………. 841 … 0.33
Croatia ………….Mar 28…… 586 …………. 1754 … 0.33
Finland ………… Mar 28 …. 1025 ……….. 3374 … 0.30
Lithuania …….. Mar 29 … 394 …………… 1239 … 0.32
New Zealand …Mar 29 … 476 …………… 1570 … 0.30
Spain …………….Mar 30 … 94417 ….… 234062 … 0.40
Czechia ……….. Mar 31 … 3002 …………. 8547 … 0.35
Germany ………Mar 31 …61913 …….. 182949 … 0.34

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I find it impossible to align columns in text posted here but message should be clear. This modeling seems to work for a wide range of data dynamics. It predicts US to have daily peak on day 98 (today) but I think that is not yet.

Others may have read that Sweden has experimented with less severe social (physical) distancing. I don't think that will turn out well.

France remains unpredictable apparently because of a large jump in reported cases. Unclear how that will really turn out.

 

Because countries are releasing their data (with great transparency and alacrity we hope), and because WHO assimilates it, and because Jens Roder and other smart people know how to math:

There is less and less need to live in fear of this bad boy. Anyway not a fear of the unknown.

We know about how bad it will get, where and when, assuming people don't mess up in a variety of possible ways.

I can't advise (now) about where to apply which case fatality rate - they range from about 1 to 11%.

Adding column of populations for each country will give additional insight.

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China now ends a 3-day weekend, during which people crowded into vacation sites. I think that might have been a bad idea.

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In a few days there will be more country inflections to add, but I won't put them here until personally convinced. Meanwhile Roder's website is at your fingertips.

 

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People

I have posted this link multiple times

 

I could have done it more diplomatically. Sorry, hope no hard feelings. Get us a couple of plastic raincoats and I'll give you a hug.

 

The asymptomatic side of this is why we are not well advised to share mucus and air.

COVID-19: On average only 6% of actual SARS-CoV-2 infections detected worldwide: Actual number of infections may already have reached several tens of millions -- ScienceDaily

 

There are several ways to view high asympt population.

Great they did not get sick.
?? Can pass virus to others ?? How effectively ??
?? Do they develop immunity??

I expect development of antibody (serum Blood) test here may lead to other antibody tests, leading to a much improved understanding of human ecology of corona viruses. Perhaps other virus groups as well.

Most folks anticipating respiratory pandemics were focused on H something N something. It would be great to know more about that ecology.

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From virus' perspective, killing walking lungs is scarcely the point. Making copies is. So they bumble about and sometimes come up with things that work well.