Grocery store shelves are being emptied all over the country...

Replacing panic with existential dread at the futility of life is.....one way to do it.

 

I fully expected that someone would read something into my statements that I did NOT say.
I never said that NOTHING should be done.

One more thought: In a "normal" month without any new health threats, how many of those million people would die anyway ??

I just think this needs to be kept in perspective.
And right now, I don't think that it IS.

 

Global Population: 7.771 billion
Total number of COVID 19 deaths to date...... <7,000 and it's already starting to burn out in the most populous nation.


Because: math.

 

I'm with you. People are scared panicky animals when it comes right down to it. Social media fans the flames so much worse and it just gets irrational at some point.

I'd ask everyone here that if you have an elderly neighbor(s), call and ASK them if they're doing OK and if they need anything at all. If they are in their 80-90's I can assure you they will NOT ask for help. They lived through the depression and know what real sacrifice is. Chances are their kids live away and are being told they're doing OK because they don't want to alarm their kids and don't want to look vulnerable.

Check on your elderly neighbors and offer to pick something up since you're "already going, etc."

 

Nop, no E85 station in my state. Alternative Fuels Data Center: Ethanol Fueling Station Locations

 

In China, about 15% of those infected needed hospitalization. In Italy, it's more like 50%. I suspect the latter reflects that many who are infected are not known to be infected, but who really knows? We won't have much certainty until this is over and the (literal) post-mortem can be done.

I'm neither an epidemiologist, a public health official, nor a health-care provider. The fact that those who are in those professions are deeply worried is sufficient to convince me that I should be concerned,

Those of us who don't have expertise in these matters can make all of the back-of-the-envelope calculations we want, but I suggest we defer to those who actually know what they are talking about.

 

But the US is SO addicted to (watching) Sports!!
As I was growing up in Canada I could never figure out the sensibility behind that. Apparently there is none.

 

Move further south.

 

'i haven't done any serious searching but it seems that almost no one is talking about the actual seriousness of this new bug'.

 

I'm not confrontational. I'm praising your toughness & the great toughness of your family, so you & they don't have to worry. Your last sentence is a tribute to your toughness..... & the reason to easily write off those that die, BECAUSE they will die in the future....soon.
When you're that tough, you can have such a philosophy to present to God on Judgement day, declaring your....Practicality.
Practically Perfect, in Every Way.

 

Agree with you. Those people who seriously got the bug & died, aren't talking.

 

Been through pneumonia. Been through malaria -- twice. Been through parasites that brought the diarrhea from hell. Been though flu so bad I puked stuff other people ate. Been through a heart attack and have three stents. I wouldn't say I'm tough. Life is tenacious and fragile at the same time. These things happen no matter how careful you are, but it doesn't mean you don't take care. And it doesn't mean you shut down the planet. Right now, nursing home lockdowns are a good idea. A week off school will probably help. Schools are giant petri dishes. Otherwise, try using the common sense hygiene we should have always used.

Those times I got sick, were probably times I got careless. A missionary friend in South America once sagely told me, "Treat everything like it's covered with a fine film of feces. ... Because it is." And that's just as true here as down there, so use some common sense and fix those idiot public restroom doors that make you grab the handle to get back out. By the way, I just went to a fast food place to grab some lunch and used the same methods I've always used. The cashier was terrified. Not that she would get sick. She was worried that they are going to close the dining area and she'd be off work without pay. A serious hardship for people like that who are barely making it paycheck to paycheck.

 

Actually, I'm starting to wonder if what we're seeing now might be final proof of my theory of intelligence. I see lots of evidence in the way people drive and other signals. But this is really big and widespread. What's the theory you might wonder? Well, when God made Adam and Eve, that's all the intelligence He ever planned to make. The more people there are, the thinner it gets spread. Don't believe me? Try buying a package of toilet paper right now.

 

China population: 1.4 billion.
Chinese infected so far....<81,000 (3/16)
Chinese fatalities.....3,225
AND...they're trending downward.

Again....math.
There are about 6200 hospitals in the US...with a total of some 900,000 beds @ about a 65% occupancy rate (in 2015)
This is HOSPITALS.
NOT mobile surgical units painted green and tan, nor FEMA and other NGO facilities.
These numbers may be off, but they're not off by an order of magnitude.
If this bug follows typical patterns we won't even come close to outstripping our Ops-Normal hospital facilities....even accounting for the number of Darwin Award aspirates who do stupid junk because they saw it on the Youtubes.
Lookin at YOU bleach sippers!!!

Numbers are not people and people don't act digitally.
We're more analogue creatures.

STILL.....

We don't have as many smokers as other nations (at least CIGARETTE smokers....)

We're not as geriatric.

We've already shut down mass gatherings in most states and the Chinese New Year is already over with.

We're not really into mass transit, and the entire nation is using hand sanitizer, soap, alcohol, and whatever it is that they're doing with 1,000,000,000,000 rolls of butt-wipe.

We're not an autocratic commie nation that uses a measurable percentage of their government's resources to stop people from forwarding Winnie The Poo cartoons on-line.
We have our leadership challenges, but generally speaking...the word is already OUT on the China bug.

Fun Fact:
The "Spanish" flu(s) of 1918-1920 actually started in America!

So....if all of the STEM fanatics out there start a 'theory-to-practice' on the facts as we can know them I'm guessing it's not quite time to start digging bunkers, breaking out the JIC ammo and ARs and stringing razor wire in the driveway.


Seriously....

 

Sure, but take a look at the Math in Italy.
Population: 60.5 Million
Deaths: 1900.

Different countries have different rates of illness and death.
This is partially based on population dynamics as well as what steps the society takes to minimize the spread.

We can’t control how old we are.
We can control washing our hands, and how often we expose ourselves to crowds.

Math is a a good descriptor, but you need to include the variables for population dynamics and crowd dynamics. Neither of which are “simple math”.

 

Absolutely...but Italy (population 60,000,000 more or less) right now is the "don't do stupid" example.
If we presume that the US will follow Italy's pattern for infections/hospitalizations/fatalities then our basic health care infrastructure is more than capable of those numbers of vics in a nation of 350,000,000.
Deeper stare-and-compares will have to be done over in the political bunker because even when people are not panic-buying Purell and TP, EVERYTHING IS POLITICAL and a certain sub-segment of the US population seems to have had their sense of humor surgically removed (along with COMMON sense.)


Cause for concern?
Yes.

Action?
Yes.

Worry?????
YMMV.

 

not bad at Sam's Club this morning. Busy, but civil. Employees were positioned to reduce hoarding, and to minimize check-out lines. Have to say my visit moved very fast, faster than a normal shopping day before Corona.