SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Just curious, is there an animal or petri-dish population that can be used to study CORVID-19?

Bob Wilson

 

Covfefe?

 

The age part is not merely anecdotal, it is well documented:

 

Months from now, when hopefully hot spots have cooled down, would like to see serologic testing performed for IgG antibodies across wide populations to better answer this guys ever vexing morbidity and mortality rate questions.

Basic methodology would be that later this year we could test a few thousand patients for IgG+ antibodies who were proven COVID-19 PCR+ or serum IgM+ in the past (to establish sensitivity of IgG test). Would include the 50%+ patients who were asymptomatic but tested positive such as on referenced cruise ship. Then we would test a representative sample throughout the populations of interest for IgG+ (such as per country), then divide this number by IgG sensitivity. This becomes then the new case number.

My bet, based on known current data, is that severely anemic current tested denominator would start to reveal fairly accurate morbidity and mortality rates which I suggest would diminish conservatively by at least 2x, more probably 4x+.

Again, happy to go where good data leads...

 

How do we get flu numbers?
I’ve never gone to the doctor for it

 

Short answer is confirmed cases, suspected cases with relatively liberal criteria, and statistical modeling. The CDC uses the methodology described in this paper:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/irv.12486

Note that the criteria for influenza is much more broad than COVID-19. For example, when looking at outpatient data:

Information on outpatient visits to health care providers for influenza-like illness is collected through the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). ILINet consists of outpatient healthcare providers in all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands reporting approximately 60 million patient visits during the 2018-19 season. Each week, approximately 2,600 outpatient healthcare providers around the country report data to CDC on the total number of patients seen for any reason and the number of those patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) by age group (0-4 years, 5-24 years, 25-49 years, 50-64 years, and ≥65 years). For this system, ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.​

U.S. Influenza Surveillance System: Purpose and Methods | CDC

We do not apply similar relatively broad methodology to COVID-19 diagnosis...

If you have ever shown up in clinic with a temperature of >100°F, cough and/or a sore throat without obvious other known cause, you got counted. If you ever show up in an ER with fever and respiratory symptoms around winter time you will likely get nasal influenza PCR testing.

 

It sounds like they are difficult to compare regarding mortality rates then

 

Upon further reflection, a triple antibiotic may not denature a virus. It would explode bacteria but I am not sure about virus. Perhaps a saturated vitamin C solution?

Lemon and lime juice saturated, shop rags comes to mind. Perhaps with an oral tequila accelerant.

Bob Wilson

 

Different populations and healthcare responses suggest different outcomes.

Bob Wilson

 

Here here !
(For the easily offended- i ask indulgence-forgiveness in advance)


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We've referred to it here lovingly as the Modelovirus.

At least that's in the cerveza family.

 

ACK! That reminded me to check my Modelo supply. It is almost empty! I'd better stock up asap before our Governor, interviewed on Face the Nation this morning, applies 'mandatory measures' a la Italy!

 

This afternoon: statewide, 123 136 [updated same afternoon] cases, 18 dead.

In just King County, 83 cases, 17 dead. 16 of the dead linked to that single nursing home.

Yesterday's news indicated that the nursing home had 26 deaths in 17 days, compared to a normal rate of 4 to 7 deaths per month. At that time, 13 deaths were from this coronavirus, 2 were not, and no test results then available on the other 11.

Latest national count: 534 reported cases, 21 dead. The U.S. is now 8th highest country in the world for number of reported cases, but 5th for deaths. I.e. Spain, Germany, and France have more known cases than the U.S., but fewer deaths.

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P.S. Updated statewide case count. And there are several more hours left in this afternoon.

 

nursing homes are finally getting new visitor protocols
i read two more weeks before there is enough testing to determine a reasonable ratio of deaths to cases.

but we keep getting broken promises, so that may be optimistic.

in the meantime, imo, too many are erring on the side of error instead of caution. if it does turn out that there are a lot of spreaders, it could be a lost cause.

talked to a doc yesterday, he said they are still not testing anyone who has not been to a hot spot

 

Actually, I think we can know how bad it will eventually be (at least in terms of mortality rate).
Darwin can help us out here a lot.
This isn't my opinion but rather I've heard or read it in several places from doctors.

The virus is constantly mutating and in order for it to spread wider it has to become a little bit or more than a little bit less fatal. A virus that quickly kills its host does not get a chance to spread as quickly. So faster spreading equals less fatal. More fatal equals spreading slower on a large scale which Darwin says won't happen. Follow the science.

So we sort of know how bad it will be. As bad as it is now in terms of mortality. It will probably become more wide spread and weaker.
More wide spread feeds into the media hype... but they probably will give little air time to the less fatal aspect. More scary travels faster on social media too.

Here is one source:
Coronavirus: Fact vs Fiction - Podcast on CNN Audio

Mike