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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    yep, that's the one. it's almost like they don't know how a virus spreads

    75,000 cases, 2,000 deaths

    chinese ste run media says the worst is over

    xi-xi tells boris there is progress, and the virus has reached a 'crucial time'
     
    #261 bisco, Feb 18, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 29, 2020
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  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    It is one day with confirmed existing cases in China being less than day before. In about 100 days, by extrapolation, deaths may no longer increase. Current severe cases (11977) will mostly recover, but surely not all.

    New viral transmissions may be past peak. Youse may have no idea how many people are working to control that. New viral deaths are at best halfway done. A lot of families including those with medical people are damaged.

    For me the words "the worst is over" mean that Wuhan/Hubei/nearby provinces begin to resume normal functions. Even my distant Yunnan province has no exit date from 'special conditions' yet to be seen.

    ==
    Media wise, each next thousand dead and ten thousand cases will make things for you to click on.
     
    #262 tochatihu, Feb 19, 2020
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Wuhan hospital director dies from Coronavirus at 51.
    Liu zhiming was a leading figure in neurosurgery

    Chinese officials released data indicating the new virus could be 20 times more lethal than the flu

    Overall death rate 2.3% v .1% for the flu
     
    #263 bisco, Feb 19, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 29, 2020
  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The flu is global, and comes back every year though.
     
    #264 Trollbait, Feb 19, 2020
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we can only hope covid does not
     
    #265 bisco, Feb 19, 2020
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  6. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Let's start with hoping it doesn't go global first.
     
    #266 Trollbait, Feb 19, 2020
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    76,000 cases and 2,100 deaths. holding steady
     
    #267 bisco, Feb 19, 2020
  8. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    One wonders if this is God's wrath poured out on a nation hell-bent on persecuting his children... I wonder if things will change once this plague runs its course.
     
    #268 spiderman, Feb 19, 2020
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    I don’t wonder that, it isn’t basic Christian theology
    We’re all sinners
     
    #269 bisco, Feb 20, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2020
  10. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    That would be for current versions of influenza.

    The 1918 Influenza Pandemic was much worse, looks like somewhere from 5% to 20%, depending on who is counting.
     
    #270 fuzzy1, Feb 20, 2020
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    if who was counting, i'm not sure i'd trust the numbers :cool:
     
    #271 bisco, Feb 20, 2020
  12. George W

    George W Senior Member

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    Apples to Oranges. Consider what today's infection rate could have been if all the world were not instantly connected by information technology. The virus could have spread faster than word of mouth, and mortality rates could have been worse than any nuclear bomb.
     
    #272 George W, Feb 20, 2020
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    1918 Influenza is a very complex story and not all aspects are known. Perhaps never to be.

    Some highlights, it had 3 very nasty genes that seem to have made it excellent in growing in bronchial epithelium. Not so good for the breathers, as there were not bottles of oxygen available. It developed in humans during wartime and soldiers being shuttled about is virus-good. It is called Spanish flu because Spain was not in that war and its news reports were not censored. It also kills chicken embryos, so even if vaccine tech was available then, this convenient mode would have been unavailable.

    When DNA vaccine folks get some spare time, they might do well to look at those 3 genes. In a level 4 containment facility of course :eek:
     
    #273 tochatihu, Feb 20, 2020
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  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Current status of cases in China as a pie:

    China pie Feb 21.png
    Recovered are out of the game (except as potential blood plasma donors as mentioned earlier). Severe may move to recovered, or die. Seems their only two options. Suspected is a tricky category, see below. Confirmed have 3 options. This really calls for a 'box and flow' model, but it is under-determined so I can't proceed there.

    I post this to give a sense of relative sizes. But it has potential to mislead. First it is a 'current counts' snapshot. We cannot conclude that outcomes for 'severe' correspond to sizes of 'recovered' or 'die' slices.

    A large problem is that these categories total ~90 thousand, while total cases (not a category here) is about 75.5. Numbers don't add up. I suppose this means that earlier 'suspected' went directly to 'recovered' and never got counted in 'total cases'. Not sure of that, nor of how to become sure.

    Finally, not fond of Excel's default color palette, but no time today to fiddle with that.
     
    #274 tochatihu, Feb 20, 2020
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  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    'china's cdc finds live virus in poop'

    75,750 cases, 2,128 deaths. hopefully some light at the end of the tunnel
     
    #275 bisco, Feb 20, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 29, 2020
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  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #276 tochatihu, Feb 20, 2020
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    and stop playing with it
     
    #277 bisco, Feb 20, 2020
  18. George W

    George W Senior Member

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    #278 George W, Feb 20, 2020
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Think of how fast the 1918 Flu would have spread had today's extensive commercial air travel system existed back then. Its death toll was equivalent to hundreds of Hiroshima bombs, possibly as much as a thousand such bombs.
     
    #279 fuzzy1, Feb 20, 2020
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Respiratory viral infections lead to snot (absent a better term). Some gets swallowed and on through the digestive tract where large variations in pH may not cause disassembly. If this is first exploration of that other avenue, it comes none too soon.
     
    #280 tochatihu, Feb 20, 2020
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