Featured Toyota's Master Plan for a Low Carbon Future

Auto sales are down in general, so pointing out lower BEV sales doesn't really mean anything on it's own.

The only public policy discouraging hybrids without a plug in the US is the few states with added hybrid fees, who also apply, generally higher, ones to plug ins, and our low fuel prices.

 

tesla too

maybe the author isn't old enough to remember how prius were incentivized into the market

 

The guy who does the "fully charged" youtube channel gives a very clear spoken response to the absurdity of the future of hybrid cars in his recent video about electric trucks:

By every measure other than Toyota profits, the hybrid car era is rapidly concluding and the full electric era is where all vehicle makers except Toyota are focused now.

 

Source: Motor Mouth: Toyota’s master plan for a low-carbon future | Driving

So, here’s something most people don’t know [about the engineering efficiency of greenhouse gas reduction]: The average battery capacity in a BEV is about 60 kWh. The average battery capacity in a Toyota hybrid is 1.4 kWh. In practical terms, that means you could build 42 Priuses in place of the 60 kWh battery in one BEV. Forty-two Priuses — each reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent — would have the impact of 12 ZEVs. So, the question is this: For the same resources — the same total number of battery cells — do you want the GHG reduction of one car? Or 12? And that’s 12 vehicles without range anxiety, government incentives, or even any infrastructure investment.
. . .
Governments have their environmental goals. So does Toyota. The government has a carbon reduction objective: 30 per cent by 2030. Toyota wants to get there, too. In fact, we want to go further. And we have a solid, practical plan to get there.

Twenty years ago, when we introduced Canadians to hybrids, we sold 225 of them in the first year. Last year, we sold more than 34,000 across the country, representing almost 15 per cent of our overall sales in 2019. More importantly, we project electrified vehicles will, by 2025, be 43 per cent of our sales. That means hybrids — and plug-in hybrids — are playing the biggest role in helping Canada achieve its emissions targets.
. . .​

Elephant in the room, my BEV, a Standard Range Plus Model 3, is half the cost per mile as the Prius Prime we traded in for $18,300. Not counting free electric charging, it run ~$2.50 / 100 mi in the city and ~$3.50 / 100 mi on the Supercharger highway. On a recent, January winter trip, $3.00 / 100 mi because we stayed at motels with free, overnight chargers.

From October 2005 through March 2019, we always owned one or more Prius and loved them because they were so frugal. But in 2016, we got our first BMW i3-REx with 72 mi EV and a motorcycle sized gas engine. Soon our stodgy Prius became 'driveway art' compared to the zippy BMW. We like fast accelerating and crisp handling of a car that also cut the cost per mile in half in EV driving around town.

My Prius studies, a speed vs HP chart, have long suggested the 0-60 mph (~100 kph) time, ~10-13 seconds, is limited by Toyota's control laws. The skinny tires on the BMW i3 achieve closer to less than 8 seconds, I once was curious about why Toyota gutted their Prius but we no longer have a dog in that fight.

I am not here to criticize the Prius that has been a brilliant solution. Rather technology has moved on. Toyota's rationalization about the ratio of my Tesla 55 kWh battery versus how many sedate Prius could be built . . . well I guess he thinks the engine and transaxles are free.

I also have fond memories of my 1966 VW MicroBus but that doesn't mean I'd trade in either of our cars for one. After all, I rebuilt my VW, 1500 cc, engine and remember the box of parts and tool box always carried around to make sure I'd complete my trips.

If Toyota wants to get more Prius/hybrid buyers, make them at least compete with the BMW i3 and out perform their own ICE cars. The way to grow market share, a better product.

Bob Wilson

 

As far as I'm concerned, the Toyota vehicles stand in the dealer parking lots. Worse, I had to fly 1,200 miles to Rhode Island to buy our former, Prius Prime thanks to Southeast Toyota Region who did not (does not?) want my business. Poetic justice that I got $18,300 for the Prius Prime as trade-in for our Model 3.

Bob Wilson

 

Actually, I don't think your hyperbole is accurate... The future of hybrid vehicles is more more clear than what you suggest. For example, one of the toughest markets for alt. energy vehicles is the US:

 

In my opinion, the most objective and important sentence.
No one has to change habits, neither infrastructure, and drivers get the feel of an EV.
And are adequate for everyone that doesn't have a garage or a plug.

 

What's flying off the lot near me? According to local sources it's leftover 2019 Chevy Traxes at $19.5k, advertised with financing at around $270/mo on a 72 month note with $2k down.

America can't afford the transition.

 

Toyota has a master plan for transitioning their product-line away from traditional vehicle. They are already well underway with architecture change necessary to enabler. Few are paying attention to that though; instead, we're getting short-sighted rhetoric. That comes from an audience obsessed with top-down approaches. Toyota's business doesn't operate that way. They work bottom-up.

In other words, we will also be getting plug-in hybrids and electric-only choices, but the industry spinners focus on the rest of the fleet for Toyota and disregard that as important for the other automakers. It's so hypocritical, I'm really surprised so many people get suckered into the propaganda. It's an effort playing out right before our eyes with enablers more than willing to feed the narrative.

To that, my response is: Ugh.

 

Having the Toyota hybrid architecture spread across more models is a good thing. The lower operating cost gives a lot of Toyota buyers a chance to understand efficient cars without having to choose just the Prius body. Just I do wish the acceleration was more aggressive than the ICE versions.

Acceleration and handling is an effective sales aid along with improved MPG and lower maintenance costs. I well remember the September 2013, peak Prius sales when it looked like hybrids, Toyota and others, were headed upwards towards ~4% of the market share. Then 'cheap' gas and consumer choice headed it off.

A Toyota executive doing a 'back of the envelope' comment about 60 kWh vs Prius 1.4 kWh still bothers me. Using his math:

• ~15 Prius = 22 kWh (BMW i3) / 1.4 kWh (Prius) :: $2.90 / 100 miles vs $2.50 / 100 miles
  • 72 mi BMW i3 vs 25 mi Prius Prime, ~3x further
• ~40 Prus = 55 kWh (Std. Rng. Plus Model 3) / 1.4 kWh (Prius) :: $2.50 /100 miles vs $2.50 / 100 miles
  • 240 mi Model 3 vs 25 mi Prius Prime, ~10x further

I never bought a car to save carbon but to save my greenback Yankee dollars. His comments are a big miss for me matched by the absence of a credible alternative.

Bob Wilson

 

Wish granted: Rav4 Prime. Also Honda and others have built "Sport-Hybrids" for several years while the pinnacle of automotive performance, the F1 championship, now run hybrids.

Personally I'd like to the see Eco & Sport (PWR) buttons actually change the hybrid powertrain performance envelope for real (cam timing, torque application, aggressive regen, etc) and not glorified pedal dynamics.

My 2 cents.

 

"The average battery capacity in a BEV is about 60 kWh. The average battery capacity in a Toyota hybrid is 1.4 kWh. In practical terms, that means you could build 42 Priuses in place of the 60 kWh battery in one BEV."

He has point when the batteries are supply constrained, but he loses credibility by not mentioning that many Toyota hybrids are using NiMH, which isn't used in plug ins. Toyota hybrids using Li-ion can easily switch to NiMH, and then they aren't competing with plug in makers for batteries. Though, that might cost Toyota more money at this time.

Because Toyota was incentivizing the Rav4 hybrid by forgoing their profits and hiding the 'hybrid premium' in the price of the ICE AWD system. What Toyota has gained in the last year has not made up for what they have lost in the US. 2019 is changing direction, but I don't think it will with more plug in options arriving; a portion of Rav4 Prime sales will be at the expense of the hybrid.

"Hybrids captured 3.2% of the light vehicle market in 2013 but were at 2% in 2018."
Hybrid-Electric, Plug-in Hybrid-Electric and Electric Vehicle Sales | Bureau of Transportation Statistics
This as 2019 figures, Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data - U.S. HEV Sales by Model

Toyota's hybrid system adds $3000 to $3500 to the price when they can't hide it in other high price features. Maybe parallel hybrids will become lower cost, but they are the low numbers made phase now.

 

I agree with you 100% on your thinking here and I believe many hard working common sense Americans echo your thoughts on a car purchase.