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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    #101 bisco, Feb 5, 2020
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Earlier in this thread I characterized those metrics as having exponential growth and more recently @mjoo has. That turns out to be incorrect.

    From the 16 WHO situation reports so far, growth rates are greater than linear but less than exponential. Excel spreadsheets let you click easily among models. Second-order polynomial gives eerily good fits. Frankly I have rarely encountered biological data with R^2 above 0.999

    Hasten to add two things. Data are only as reported and under reporting cannot be excluded. Either from bean counters being overwhelmed, or darker motivations.

    But super tight models allow one to see when a corner has been turned (slowing of rates) at a very early moment.

    Finally, other sources have used the term 'logistic' and that as a model does not fit what we have so far. But it is exactly what would show that infection chains are getting broken. That is exactly what one hopes for. I may have Sigmaplot (TM) software* floating around somewhere, and it has enough horsepower for logistic fitting.

    (*you really don't want to know how much that horse costs at retail)
     
    #102 tochatihu, Feb 5, 2020
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  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    corona_010.jpg corona_020.jpg

    WARNING: Do not use this formula.

    total_cases = 131 (day*day) - (147 * day) + 499

    day - starts from 01/22/20 as day 0​

    A second order polynomial has no upper limit which means:
    WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!​

    Bob Wilson
     
    #103 bwilson4web, Feb 6, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
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  4. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace 2025 Camry XLE FWD

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    Thank you Captain Obvious.
    History has proven that to be the case for everyone so far. I think I missed your point.
     
    #104 Prodigyplace, Feb 6, 2020
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  5. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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    I found this interesting. HUGE discrepancy between the modelers and the officially reported numbers.

     
    #105 farmecologist, Feb 6, 2020
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    two babies being investigated for possible invitro contagion
     
    #106 bisco, Feb 6, 2020
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  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    wow, the ophthalmologist i mentioned in post #76, dr. li wenliang, who was threatened by the government for reporting an unknown respiratory illness back in december,

    has died from coronavirus.

    as awful as that is, a bigger concern is that he didn't die from the coronavirus
     
    #107 bisco, Feb 6, 2020
  8. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Li Wenliang, Chinese doctor who sounded alarm on coronavirus, has died - CNN

    If so.....Headline: fail
     
    #108 ETC(SS), Feb 6, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
  9. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    #109 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Feb 6, 2020
  10. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Caught a squib on that this AM.

    Don't remember the source but since I spend I usually spend the first few minutes doing a stare-and-compare between CNN and FNN.....I'm thinking that it was one of those two.

    This thing is starting to impact the Chinese economy, and those ripples will do what ripples do.....so Poo is BUSY.

    Gas has already tumbled past $1.85 hereabouts
     
    #110 ETC(SS), Feb 6, 2020
  11. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Hey, they're already blaming their economic slowdown/recession on the coronavirus. Somebody has decided not to let a good crisis go to waste.
     
    #111 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Feb 6, 2020
  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    That is taking it a little far.
    I think it is perfectly reasonable to contribute the slowdown occurring NOW and over the span of this outbreak to the virus.
    Considering the number of cities and businesses that have been closed down, I don't see any way this couldn't have a downward affect on their economy.
     
    #112 Zythryn, Feb 6, 2020
  13. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    #113 ETC(SS), Feb 6, 2020
  14. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Openly agreed, but posting as One Guy on The Internet I don't feel like I need to moderate my opinion as carefully as a widely-watched/read pundit in the media, and I can only hope this is implicitly understood.
     
    #114 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Feb 6, 2020
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  15. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    +1

    We're a forum....not a quorum... ;)
     
    #115 ETC(SS), Feb 6, 2020
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  16. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace 2025 Camry XLE FWD

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    I am not surprised.
    Most Chinese goods coming to the US are shipped on the passenger planes that are no longer flying. That has got to hurt the economy somewhat.
     
    #116 Prodigyplace, Feb 6, 2020
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It was a math joke. The quadratic formula as a prediction would suggest eventually we’d all get the virus. Other formula could predict more realistic outcomes.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #117 bwilson4web, Feb 6, 2020
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  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Last I heard, xi xi’s statement read, “anyone providing misinformation (read: information) would suffer severe punishment.

    Back to our eye doc
     
    #118 bisco, Feb 6, 2020
  19. George W

    George W Senior Member

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    Many plastics from China carry the Cancer warning label. As far as I am concerned, less toxic dollar-tree items in our country, the better.
     
    #119 George W, Feb 6, 2020
  20. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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    I also read that cargo ships are starting to be affected. Here is one of the articles about it :

    Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus - CNN
     
    #120 farmecologist, Feb 6, 2020
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