Featured Toyota Chasing Tesla Styling With 2nd Generation 2021 Mirai Fuel Cell Vehicle

With the installed base of idle hydrogen cars growing we should perhaps take a step back and limit the number of subsidized hydrogen cars that can sell.

hydrogen cars also should be required to plug in for a 10 mile battery range to alleviate fuel crisis.

im all for an experiment but this is growing into a large boondoggle with no end in sight.

at some point need to cut losses and there will be a world of butthurt when 25,000 hydrogen cars become useless with a change in the winds.

 

more money for more hydrogen stations means more fossil fuels reforming more hydrogen. Supply & demand principles means it keeps fossil fuel prices higher. Win-win for that industry. More subsidy money going down that drain keeps more money out of battery research, which - as it is, has been advancing its own improvements, compounding at ~7%. So after ANOTHER 5 years, when the next hydrogen car cost & infrastructure promise fails, battery tech (weight to kwh, durabilury, cost, charge speed) will be nearly ANOTHER 40% better, following its own technology advancement history. Not insinuating that the non renewable energy industry has a conspiratorial stake in this horse race, but ... the horse with a 2 lap lead is already in the home stretch. That has to gaul the fuel cell industry/lobby no end . At some point, someone needs to take that loser off the track & send it to the rendering plant.

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Even at 1 Million fcv - California's aspirational goal for 2030, which now looks extremely remote unless tens of billions of dollars of taxpayer cash are used to subsidize, that is only a tiny percentage of fossil fuel. I would be surprised if there are 1 million globally by that date. Most of big oil wants nothing to do with this. There are a little over 250 million registered vehicles in the US alone.

There are over 6 million plug ins running around in the world today with over 1 million in the US. While the californication of fuel cell vehicles probably drains some money there and hurts the only automaker in that state, the US federal government and Chinese government are still investing in plug-ins along with enough industry that there are huge investments from Europe as well. China just anounced it will cut off fuel cell subsidies next year. Plug-ins are too strategic to be starved out by hydrogen, but they would be doing even better in california without all the misdirection from CARB.
Beijing set to end subsidies for fuel cell vehicles next year

The 3 people that invented the lithium ion battery just got the nobel prize for chemistry.
John B. Goodenough just became the oldest person, at 97, to win a Nobel Prize - CNN
Goodenough is still doing research on solid state lithium and solid state sodium batteries.
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Maybe in 3 years we will see some commercialized examples but car batteries will take much longer. My bet would be ERCOT (the texas grid) will probably buy a pilot project from whoever commercializes this technology to buffer wind power on the grid. If the technology works batteries will last for decades and not need protection from overheating. Lots of possibilities to make plug-in battery packs less expensive and lighter.

 

Plugs for BEVs are very common, FCV charging stations not so much.

 

It, quite frankly, looks like a game of leap frog and it’s unfortunate. The current stations who went the early, cheap route, probably won’t be able to keep up with multiple newer, larger 5kg+ vehicle refills, or trucks, or buses. The stations who can go with the 900 bar storage tanks and bigger, newer compressors, at double the money, might have a chance, but the retailers who started first will have the finger pointed at them and a dramatic loss of business. They should have started with trucks and buses so stations would be properly prepared for capacity. They need big corporate sponsors to guide building these stations. Right now you can get 75 to 80% of funding via grants, but most people would just take that money and put out the minimum effort.


iPad ? Pro

 

Is there any firsthand info as to how the solid state sodium battery research is progressing? I remember a burst of enthusiasm a couple of years ago, but nothing much since.

 

At my current jobsite, the contractor has a fuel station. It's a tanker truck, parked in a mitigation depression for spills. Equipment that needs fuel either come to the truck and are filled, or a grease monkey takes it to the equipment location. Hydrogen stations of the future will be the trucks, and cars will be filled by direct pump out. Two tanker trucks of H will allow for one of the trucks to switch out when it is empty. No need to build permanent tanks.

 

At my current jobsite, the contractor has a fuel station. It's a tanker truck, parked in a mitigation depression for spills. Equipment that needs fuel either come to the truck and are filled, or a grease monkey takes it to the equipment location. Hydrogen stations of the future will be the trucks, and cars will be filled by direct pump out. Two tanker trucks of H will allow for one of the trucks to switch out when it is empty. No need to build permanent tanks.

 

Part of the problem is that the refueling and tank standards are still evolving. It wasn't that long ago that FCEV tanks held only have the pressure they do today.

 

If we get batteries with the following specs, fuel cell vehicles will not be necessary:

Energy density: 800Wh/kg
Power density (charge and discharge): 2kW/kg
Cost: $30/kWh
Lifetime: 30 years/>10,000 cycles
Fully recyclable

Where we're at now:
Energy density: 250Wh/kg
Power density discharge: 0.5kW/kg
Power density discharge: 0.3kW/kg
Cost: $200/kWh
Lifetime: 10-15 years/5,000 cycles
Barely recyclable

 

If the trucks are loaded with liquid hydrogen, they will need to be equipped with compressors to fill FCEVs that use high pressure tanks.
If high pressure gas, then the truck needs chillers for the gas in order to have fast fills.

Hydrogen proponents stress the fast fill speed, but they leave the public with the impression that it is as simple as pumping liquids. For a fill fill gas station, whether hydrogen or natural gas, there are two tanks, not just one. There is a storage tank, which could be a truck in your scenario, and then there is a fueling tank. In order to have a fast fill, the fueling tank in compressed to a pressure higher than what the vehicle's tank can hold.

Picture those antique gas pumps with the tank on top. The attendant would pump gasoline into the glass tank up with what the customer ordered, and then let gravity pour it into the car's tank. If the tank was lower, it would take longer to drain into the car; too low, and not all of it will. The concept is the same with these pressurized gas refueling stations. If the pressure in the fueling tank is low, it takes longer to transfer gas to the car. Slowest is having a compressor directly feed the car's tank.

Then hydrogen's properties requires extra equipment. if it gets too hot, it becomes unstable, and unstable hydrogen in a high pressure vessel isn't a good thing. 100C is the limit in the SAE refueling standard. Compounding the heat problem is the fact that hydrogen doesn't behave like other gases when expanding. Instead of cooling the surrounding space on expansion, hydrogen heats it up. In order to safely get a 3 minute fill time, the hydrogen station's fueling tank is chilled to -40 degrees.

Hydrogen tanks for cars have a 15 year life span from their date of manufacturer.
Fuel cells in FCEVs only go about 75k miles before their voltage output has dropped by 10%.

 

As I keep saying, and no one is listening, they need to be PHEVs. That will reduce the use of the H2 system by at least 2/3rds.

 

Assuming space can be found for the battery with the tanks, that will extend the fuel cell's life in the car, but the end of service life date is a hard value. It ticks down regardless of the use the tank sees, or even if it is installed in a car.

 

I'm curious where these numbers and goals are coming from. Let's compare apples and apples.

312 mile 2019 mirai with ability to power 114 kw weighs 100 kg more than a 325 mile tesla model 3 long range with a battery pack that can power 335 kw. The 2019 mirai needs to be physically bigger to hold the large tanks while having substantially smaller interior space 12 cubic feet less passenger room, 2 cubic feet less room for cargo with seats up, and even worse with seats folded. The mirai is more expensive to produce and fuel before incentives and longevity of the fuel cell and tanks are less than the battery in the model 3. Hey its a work in progress, of course it will cost more to maintain and not last as long. So just throw out your goals for power density and longevity for batteries versus fuel cells. Batteries are already better. On costs Hopefully pack costs will fall below $100/kwh on a pack by 2025. Is that good enough? That means the cost of a pack in a 300 mile + tesla would be about $8000 for the power of a V8, that is less than a gas powered power train. I don't know if the tanks, battery, and fuel cell stack will ever get there. Toyota says that in a decade it will cost about as much as a hybrid, which is probably more than this, but I have serious doubts it will every happen. Currently the hydrogen tanks alone cost toyota $5K. When cost of fuel is added there is no way a fuel cell vehicle is going to cost as little as a bev with similar range before 2030.

Now IMHO the 2021 mirai is probably going to be a leap forward it is a bigger car with bigger tanks giving it hopefully more interior room and range and hopefully better acceleration (power) and handling to go with the price tag. The goal is to ramp up to 30K units per year, and given subsidies they may be able to do that. Plug-ins are going to greatly outsell it. Even if each unit needs a $50K subsidy to sell and fuel that is only $1.5B/year and japan is committed to doing that much.

The only advantage of fuel cell vehicles compared to bevs is faster fueling if there is a station and you don't fuel at home or work. On weight in the 2019 mirai the stack, battery, and tanks weigh 201 kg, compared to a long range tesla 3 battery pack of 478 kg. Going phev is going to make the fcv even heavier. If the fuel tanks didn't need extra protection and didn't take up the space that would be a significant 277 kg (610 lbs) but the extra power and efficiency seems to make up for it. I would expect by 2030 (the goal year for california and japan to get to 1 Million fcv) my guess is that battery pack will drop in weight to 310 kg and fast charge stations will be in a much bigger international network. I can't see countries other than japan and korea building hydrogen infrastructure, unless there are huge technical breakthroughs.

 

Over a period of about 2.5 years, I did the math.

Comparing a mass-produced car to an extremely low-volume car is disingenuous, especially when that low-volume car ISN'T A PHEV AS I KEEP SAYING THEY NEED TO BE!!!

 

Several here have agreed with this, but just saying so doesn't address the issues of making it happen.

FCEVs already sacrifice space for the hydrogen tanks. Where will the battery large enough for a plug in go? Just toss it in the trunk so we get all the wonderful packaging of the Prime with the Mirai's? What value is there in quick with fueling when there is no space for luggage?

 

Asked an answered - the H2 system in an FC PHEV is smaller than the engine in an IC PHEV and the FC is a tenth the size of the FC in a pure FC vehicle.

 

Then what are the tank like objects in these hydrogen FCEV cars?



A battery pack of Prius Prime capacity could fit where the fuel cell is, if it has liquid cooling. The Mirai is 700lbs heavier than than a Prime; it will not have 25 miles of plug in range. When the grid charge is gone, a smaller fuel cell stack is all that will be propelling the car. It might produce 20hp. The i3 REx engine produces 33hp, and suffers performance degradation when its larger battery is nearly discharged. The generator may not produce a full 33hp in electricity, but the i3 is lighter than a Prime.

The only FCEV car using a large battery and small fuel cell that may work as a plug in isn't using hydrogen to fuel it.

 

Almost everything you just said is wrong.

First, where did I say the battery has to be the same size as the Prime's battery? Never, that's where. I recommend around 40 miles of range.

Second, if you're going on a long trip (a trip beyond the battery's range) you don't drain the battery and then start the fuel cell like the Prime does. You manage the battery charge with the fuel cell running all the time. The battery takes the hills, accelertions, decelerations, and other spikes in power need, while the fuel cell takes the average. The ratio between the average power and peak power of a car is usually around 10-20 so making the fuel cell 1/10th the size is practical. A 14kW fuel cell is the size of a shoe box.

In other words, the fuel cell is a range extender.

Next, you don't need a massive structure in the front like that. That comes from the historical way cars have been built. You can do it entirely differently if you want to, and some have, by moving the motors, gears and controllers closer to the wheels. They can be pretty tiny because you've got four of them. Toyota does a bit of this with E-Four (and the other cars with electric 4-wheel-drive) because it saves a transfer case, differential and the connecting shafts between the parts.

Now, put one H2 tank where the engine would normally go and one where the gas tank would normally go, or design the car to have all this stuff in the back and most of the cargo room in the front (or vice versa). The overall volume of the system is not significantly different than that of a gas engine, hybrid battery, gas tank and exhaust system. You just have to lay it out differently, for obvious reasons.

 

Finally, you explain what you are thinking.

The hydrogen tanks are still going to result in losing more space than an ICE PHEV would. They are round pegs in square holes, that need reasonable access for annual inspections.