Featured CNBC: The Rise And Fall Of The Toyota Prius

I, for one, do it, but not for the reasons you cite. I usually buy late - usually immediately after the next year's model becomes available - because you can get a better deal, and it affords the opportunity to read driver/owner reviews.

 

The narrative of "mistakes" is one that doesn't recognize Toyota's approach. Anyone who truly knows the automaker understands this. Most people are blissfully unaware. For those who have studied the process Toyota has taught us, the term "Kanban" is quite familiar. It's a totally different means of managing & improving. There's an inherent aspect to taking risk as a result. Failure is not looked upon as a mistake.

The reason why is simple. You try something. If it works, great. If if doesn't, you try something else. The key is to keep the scope of that change small. Notice the careful rollout to select markets and within limited timeframes? Toyota is always planning ahead, expecting one of many next steps to take place depending upon outcome of the previous. That flexibility is what most people completely overlook... seeing the changes made along the way as a mistake. It's adaptation.

Toyota saw the market for sedans & hatchbacks crumbling... hence the amazing RAV4 hybrid. This is why taking the risk of attempting to upscale Prius Prime a little by reusing the middle rear for comfort & convenience was worth taking. If it worked, great. If it didn't, the uproar would indicate demand for the old is still strong. At the same time, risk with the no-plug model had to be taken... knowing the plug-in model should become standard by gen-5.

Once you recognize the perspective Toyota has on the industry and how they have been applying it to their entire fleet as a whole, you'll see a very different picture than what the media has been painting... as well as antagonists, or anyone who wants to retain the status quo.

 

Prius family is just the models with the Prius name. So the Aqua won't be included outside the US. Sites that report sales figures have a Prius family selection, which, I'm guessing, Toyota reports for North America.

Which is in contrast to the car's styling. The gen2 and gen3 can pass as normal

It matters because the sales from those new hybrid models are only replacing the loss of Prius sales, not significantly growing the hybrid market.

Or perhaps Toyota has a good deal going on for the Prius.
If it is previous Prius owners replacing their ride, that isn't a good sign for the model's future.

 

https://nebula.wsimg.com/7cbf31d47c8d03bf68db34fec012e85e?AccessKeyId=25C1F3F6D056BB3D70DD&disposition=0&alloworigin=1

The information in the link is for cars available in Minnesota. In summary, depending upon driving patterns, there are 9 or 10.
Nationwide I would guess double that, about 20. Worldwide? Probably 30-40.

Awareness and education is a big challenge, just as it was for the Prius early on.

I disagree. The piece is about the Prius model, not the hybrid technology.
I do find it distressing that hybrids as a whole never got beyond a 3% market share. I don't see that changing before EVs get a bigger market share.
The Prius was forward looking, ground breaking and a great example of the engineering Toyota is capable of. I hope they will join the rest of the manufacturers in strengthening their PHEV and BEV offerings.

 

No. Restricting the argument to just one model is just a rhetorical tool - a version of Pascal's Wager: "Prius sales vs the rest of the world". I.e. the "rest of the world" refers to market share, not just a single model vehicle. It just so happens that Toyota took the lions share of the hybrid/EV market by storm with a single model. But then they were not dummies that just sit around a wait for the rest of the world to catch up. They re-captured the market by incorporating the technology in their other models before the rest of the world could exploit it.

In any case, it doesn't explain why the narrator left out any discussion of all the other Toyota hybrids.

 

One other thing that is being overlooked. That is the hybrid/EV market share that is being taken up by used car sales - namely older generation Prius's.

 

<GACK> You reminded me of some pretty bad commercials:


For a future Prius to attract my interest:

• fast DC charging socket, 100 kW (250 A) peak rate
• 7.2 kW AC charging socket
• active battery thermal management integrated with cabin HVAC
• EV ranges:
  • plug-in hybrid, EV range 80-120 EV miles
  • plug-in BEV, EV range 240 miles
• 4.8-9.6 kWh (20-40 A), vehicle to split phase 240 VAC output
  • optional, automatic cut-over switch

Bob Wilson

 

Well, it IS, after all, ugly. But it's not really putting lipstick on a pig... ...or is it?

 

It isn't a rhetorical tool, it is the focus of the article. It is about the Prius, not the hybrid technology.
I am sorry you wanted the article to address a different subject, but don't criticize a plant because it isn't an animal.

Prius did a fantastic job with the Prius and their hybrid tech is fantastic. I would be interested in seeing data on hybrid tech in general, both in the USA and worldwide. While in the USA hybrid market share stalled around 3%, I haven't seen worldwide hybrid market share. It would be an interesting data point.

 

What, compare one plant vs all other forms of life including other plants? Again, If it was just about the Prius, then why does the narrator compare one car to the rest of the world?

 

Congratulations, you got me to watch the video.

It was about the Prius. Discussing other specific models would be a distraction from the main topic. The narrator does say hybrids are going away, and that Toyota does offer other cars as hybrids. But their breakout from other brand's models was not relevant to the point being made with the chart of hybrid and plug in market share. That was presented as evidence for the change in Prius sales not just being part of a trend in the segment. Yes, some Prius sales were taken by other Toyota hybrids, but whether lost to Toyota or another doesn't change the fact that Prius sales have dropped. Which is the main topic of the piece.

You seem to be conflating the Prius discussed in the video to Toyota hybrids, and are taking offense because of that. It wasn't a put down of Toyota and their hybrids. It was merely a discussion on the sales of the Prius' sales, and why the change. As stated, that has happened here, and multiple times.

Used car sales aren't an indicator of how a technology is being adopted. Really, once things like individual examples being kept for longer or shorter by an owner, and losses are accounted for, the used car market breakdown should be close to what the new market once was, because the used car supply is limited to past new car sales.

So, of course the Prius will make up a lot of used hybrid sales, there was a lot of them sold new in the past.

 

That's like saying Porsche can again re-capture the market if they slightly change their car design to look like US-Style pickup trucks... It's just not gonna happen...

You have to re-design entire car from the ground up for Prius to be a BEV and that takes 1/2 dozen years to bring to market. BEV from Toyota will be arriving in a little under a 1/2 dozen years now that they've partnered up with Subaru/Fuji Heavy Industries to develop drivetrains that begin the slow long slog to catch up with Tesla's high quality drivetain manufacturing efficiency/low cost.

Tesla has shown that once you perfect the drivetrain, the details of building the rest of the car really aren't too challenging to refine... One of the more fascinating innovations Tesla recently announced is the elimination of miles of wires in each vehicle by building it as solid state circuitry built directly into the body parts prior to assembly, mostly because robots suck at handling loose wires...

 

Actually, total Toyota hybrid sales are up this year and that trend seems to be accelerating.

I do believe the Rav4 hybrid is bringing new buyers to get a hybrid because reviews of the hybrid are much better than the non hybrid due to it having more power, being quieter and, of course better MPG.

 

In 2012, Toyota sold 147,503 Prii, 223,905 of the Prius family, and 313,844 total hybrids.
For a quick projection, if their sales for the rest of the year match their July figures, they'll sell 223,905 hybrids this year.
Hybrid electric vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia

The new Camry and Rav4 hybrids are helping. As are the increase in options from other manufacturers, but they are at best just making up for losses the Prius has had since its peak.

 

Originally the Prius was the only sucsessful hybrid with more than just 2 seats. But here's the deal...not everyone "wants" just a Prius. So now the tech is spreading to other vehicles people "want". Prius is not the end all of hybrid vehicles...even within the Toyota line up.

 

Driving through West Vancouver a couple of days back, for a bit we were following one of these:



And I thought: what a nice harmonious styling job. Everything looks tight and purposeful, and it looks dynamite.

Then there's:



I have no idea what's going on, looks like some absurd hieroglyph.

Yeah, wait and pray...

 

You do realize the one on the top is probably 10x the cost of the one on the bottom.

I’d hope it’d be a bit more appealing .

There are a couple of them out here that are on the drive home from time to time.

They are low and wide.

 

It was that yellow too. Looked like a contented shark, just cruising through.

For the fourth gen Prius, Toyota sent the designers back to the drawing board, to achieve that look. Somebody loves it. I think with more money it would have been more outlandish.

 

Yes, you just stated the main topic in the last two sentences of your first paragraph, but you left out the context. The narrator is talking about the Prius in a competitive market - and a growing one at that. He merely left out most of the names and details of that competition.

But I'm glad you brought up the histograms. It shows Prius sales have dropped in percentage of market share, and the narrator tries his best to portray this as a death spiral (including a tumbling Prius figure for emphasis). Problem is, he supports this with histogram PERCENTAGES, not sales. And in the context of a growing market... ...well, I'm sure you can figure out the flaw in using THAT standard. It's more than a bit misleading, if not disingenuous. Add to it the fact that Toyota has been redirecting it's efforts into diversifying the hybrid market - as John1701a said in his previous comment "...you'll see a very different picture."

 

In my perspective ( I hope I don't have to keep saying that in threads like this one ) I think sentiment and focus get blurred between HEV and BEV. 3% of total automobile market share for HEV sounds very much like what I've read too. That's not an impressive percentage when considering the total automobile buying population. Beyond the sad numbers so far, I've never digested MPGe numbers relative to BEV. I've always looked more closely at m/kw for BEV and MPGe for HEV. Again the differences get into deep gray areas when combining BEV and HEV into one group as EV.

In the presentation I didn't object to the presenters view of Prius appearing to lose market share to the myriad other choices now available to the EV (HEV BEV) buying market. I did have to check my BS meter regarding the great steps forward that have been made in general MPG. As I mentioned above I'm not impressed with the new MPG numbers for the best selling vehicles in the US.
I realize there are limits to efficiency of all technologies currently available, but parroting ( In My Opinion ) the propaganda of improved MPG of what sells in the US is just wrong, even if it's only a sales pitch.
Now if the presenter lauded the strides in the EV market of the last 20 years, especially Tesla, I'd have to agree, great strides have been made.
I can't help an wonder just who will get the blame for HEV BEV not being adopted at a significant rate to reduce the problems that will manifest our futures due to the mass marketing of automobiles.

Again, in other words. How relevant is it, if prius looses market share in a growing BEV, HEV sector. In my opinion, not much.