Model S/X Refresh Speculation

That's the decision I had to make. More batteries cost more money. In my case, the 3LR with 310 mile range (at that time) cost $4K more than the 3MR with 264 mile range. I would use the 310 mile range maybe a couple of times a year and that would save me maybe 1 hour of time twice a year. I couldn't justify spending $4K to save 2 hours per year. What the $4K saving did allow me to do was purchase EAP for $5K which I use on a daily basis. It was an easy decision for me to make. On the other hand, the 3SR+ with 240 mile range would probably have worked for me too and that would have provided even more savings but a more frequent inconvenience when charging. I would have given the 3SR+ consideration had it been available or even "promised" in the future at the time of my purchase last December.

 

Math ... high school algebra.

Bob Wilson

 

I don't understand, how does "math...high school algebra" show whether people prefer charging speed over range?

I know that statistics show that people drive on average much less than 100 miles per day. Anecdotal evidence (which is not scientific) shows that the vast majority of people charge at home or at work on a daily basis. 100 miles of range can be replenished in 2 or 3 hours with an L2 charger overnight or while at work. Most BEV owners would prefer both longer range AND faster charging. But in my opinion, until that happens ( which will occur in the next year or two) people would prefer range over faster charging since charging is done on a daily basis while they are doing other tasks like sleeping or working.

 

Number of Superchargers does matter. A range of 400+ miles is also very important for positive press and continued sales excitement. A Tesla driving game would be how many Superchargers one can pass up to get to the next-next one. In many drives, that is already happening in charger rich regions.

Related: Looked at the Supercharger map a couple weeks ago, and I-90 to the north was all grayed out as future Supercharger locations. Last night looked again. They're mostly all red and in operation.

EDIT: I see that I-94 now has a bunch of Superchargers under construction and some (not very many) are up.

 

Sometimes things I consider trivial are obscure to others. So then I have to translate into what they may understand.

We can characterize fast DC charging as having three distinct phases that deliver the same kWh:

• Initial charge - fastest it has the shortest duration.
• Medium charge - about half the rate but twice as long.
• Tickle charge - lowest rate but four times longer than the initial charge.

So let's look at a cross country trip comparing frequent, high speed charging versus less frequent, more fully charging:

The longer a charge session, the longer it takes to reach a given destination, the "block-to-block" time. By staying in the highest charge rate, it becomes a relatively smaller portion of the "block-to-block" time.

Bob Wilson

 

Yes, this information has been known for about 7 years now, confirmed by similar studies at that time with models S and X and for the last 2 years with model 3.

But it is even more complicated. The three phases of charging is modified by the state of charge when starting and stopping charging. That is why most Tesla owners have determined that when on a road trip. the fastest itinerary (in terms of charge time) from point A to B means stopping to charge when the state of charge is around 20% and charging to 80%. The first 20% and the last 20% take longer to replenish than the middle 60% (in general).

But it gets even more complicated. Studies have shown that the fastest itinerary, (including travel time and charge time) is a speed of around 75 mph. Yes, you do deplete your battery charge faster at 75 mph than 65 mph, and you will need to stop more frequently, but the faster speed more than compensates for the longer charge times.

I am a speed limit driver, just because, and that tends to give me longer range than a 10+ speed limit driver. I really don't care about the fastest charge times while on a trip, because I need to stop every 3 to 4 hours anyway to stretch, eat, or whatever. That means I stop for 30 minutes at a Supercharger and the car is charged back to 80% usually before I am ready to go. I do carry OCR waterless cleaner and microfiber towels (keep the supplies in the frunk) and I give the car a quick wash down on the front end to clean off the bugs. They are easier to clean off when fresh than when they get baked on by the sun.

But this has little to do with the vast number of people who don't make long road trips on a regular basis. To them, range is king compared to rate of charge. Time to charge is inconsequential when it is done at night or during the day at work. I ran my car down to 8% today upon returning home from a long trip. My car is charging tonight at the lowest TOU rates and I will be sleeping blissfully.

 

Do you have a favorite source that includes a math model? It is April and the SAE may have some papers of merit: https://www.sae.org/publications

My practice is to benchmark, to confirm, what works with the cars in my hand. The Prius community has long been assaulted by false and misleading claims that good Prius Friend, @john1701a, documented in his web pages. I've even found SAE papers whose claims did not match my benchmarks. Given these experiences, I prefer physics, math, and to trust my lying eyes with the car in my hands.

Let me share a recent example: Toyota still balking on EV's | PriusChat

• Hiding behind buses, trucks, and trailers - using cruise control (i.e., traffic aware cruise control) is a long standing practice I follow:
  • Using the experienced eyes and example of commercial drivers to 'show the way'
  • Avoiding 'road rage', anti-Prius, jackasses who love to tailgate and instead will simply zoom past the leading vehicle ignoring the following cars
• Driving smoothly to minimize inertial losses
• Tuning the vehicle to maximize drive train efficiency and minimize drag
• Purchase the highest efficiency trim of a model

As a suggestion, you might consider joining the CleanMPG crew at:
CleanMPG

The reason is they seem to follow similar posting practices to what you've shared with us. Perhaps they are 'speaking your language.'

GOOD LUCK!
Bob Wilson

 

I follow Tesla Motors Club (TMC). I find this group more comprehensive (from stock to aesthetics to performance details) than other Tesla chat lists. There are members who perform similar tests to yours and post anecdotal results. These results tend to be consistent and therefore inspire confidence. They are based on real life results rather than laboratory results. Members are more than willing to share their methodology and algorithms. I don't have any specific references but the "search" function should result in a number of "hits." Realize that discussion can be passionate. so a thick skin is mandatory. I think this is good because it challenges me to consider all viewpoints, results, and conclusions.

I don't dispute that travelling caravan style will result in greater efficiency. But I can't do that because I get claustrophobia when I can't survey the road ahead. I have to trust the person in front of me is awake, responsible, and physically fit. Travelling in a caravan is sort of like having unprotected sex, you have to trust other people are doing the right thing.

Travelling at the speed limit (always in the far right lane), I frequently experience aggressive tailgaters. When that happens, I either turn on my emergency flashers or give a couple of quick flicks down on the scroll button to reduce speed by 10 mph. This usually results in a single finger salute as they pass by me. I interpret that to mean they think I'm "numero uno."

This will change when FSD becomes a reality (hopefully in my lifetime). Caravans will result in greater efficiency and even greater safety. In the meantime, I use EAP when appropriate, but I remain fully engaged with the car at all times.

Yes, EAP (primitive FSD) is capable to drive more smoothly than I can

This is why I selected the 18" standard wheels and leave the aero covers on at all times. Around town the results in efficiency are negligible, but on the highway, on long trips, I find my efficiency is about 5% better than taking them off. Other drivers have found efficiency ranges from 3% to 10%.

I am disappointed that my 3MR is not as efficient as the 3LR. I thought it would be better than the 3LR due to the lighter weight. I don't understand why there is a difference.

 

I was generalizing and it can vary from one Supercharger to another. So again, it is complicated and results can vary. For example, two cars sharing the same Supercharger pylon will result in reduced charging rates. Always search for an un-shared pylon for best results.

I am using the EPA documentation.

 

The EPA test cycles vary the speed, and even have stops. The accelerations and decelerations are also gentle. The lets the LR recapture more energy during the test.

 

It could matter in terms of heating rate. If the smaller battery results in higher internal resistance, there will be more heat generated, which means more energy spent on cooling.

 

Just sharing a couple of thoughts:

When I first looked, they don't have a way to share graphs and videos. I just checked and it is a lot like this one. I've already done my initial posts; $60 annual fee; fixed avatar photo, and; fixed signature. Now to survey where to start my "in my hands" thread.

Old Prius habit that leads to a much calmer drive ... less frantic. My wife used to complain when a semi passed me. Now I just change lanes to follow that one.

The EPA downloadable test car database has useful metrics for all models including my SR+. However, any data reported by the manufacturer needs testing. For example, a truck stop scale confirmed the true weight of my car is 3,707 lbs. Also, my hill climb test revealed in 'CHILL' mode a max of about 160 hp and still topped the crest at 120 mph.

Bob Wilson

 

I would recommend the "Model 3: Driving Dynamics" sub-forum.

 

From Tesla today:

Beginning today, Model S and Model X now come with an all-new drivetrain design that increases each vehicle’s range substantially, achieving a landmark 370 miles and 325 miles on the EPA cycle for Model S and Model X Long Range, respectively. Using the same 100 kWh battery pack, these design and architecture updates will allow drivers to travel farther than ever before, charging less frequently and getting more range out of every dollar spent on charging.

All Model S and X vehicles now benefit from Tesla’s latest generation of drive unit technology, which combines an optimized permanent magnet synchronous reluctance motor, silicon carbide power electronics, and improved lubrication, cooling, bearings, and gear designs to achieve greater than 93% efficiency. Pairing a permanent magnet motor in the front with an induction motor in the rear enables unparalleled range and performance at all times. The net effect is a more than 10% improvement in range, with efficiency improvements in both directions as energy flows out of the battery during acceleration and back into the battery through regenerative braking. In addition to adding range, power and torque increases significantly across all Model S and Model X variants, improving 0-60 mph times for our Long Range and Standard Range models.

Faster Charging Paired with the new more efficient drivetrain design, Model S and Model X are now capable of achieving 200 kW on V3 Superchargers and 145 kW on V2 Superchargers. Together, these improvements enable our customers to recharge their miles ​

 

Good question. I don't know but I think they might be looking beyond those 2170s. My surprise was they apparently are not introducing the "new" model 3 style interior at this time. My guess is that the interior is not quite ready yet but they had to do something to stop the bleeding in MS/X sales and so rushed out the range and charging improvements asap. Look for the new interior in a month or two.