Featured Tesla to report big drop in sales. Probably.

could use a few laughs

 

Per the Tesla blog post, you can order one by phone, or at a Store. The first ones that had been ordered online are starting to be delivered next week.

 

The sigh should go more to the fiction of actually such person getting any money back since he didn’t place an order.

The saddest part of this may not be the incessant focus on 100% negative Tesla information, but the ones that purposefully disseminate false information.

 

If all models are shipping with AP, then the base price will not be $35K.

 

$35K model has been ordered by some and will be delivered, but ...

I have a feeling it is not coming back. The plus model is now $39,500 and includes

better seats
better stereo
240 mile range instead 220 mile range
autopilot.

Let's face it most were going to order autopilot with the $35K model and back when it was promised enhanced autopilot was $5K. The plus loses the enhanced (navigate with auto turns and autoparking) but has most of what people want. I can see tesla getting enough orders that those $35K customers will get asked if they want to upgrade or get delivered after june (when the tax credit drops $1875 to $1875). Tesla is now allowing orders on the plus for china and europe which will provide plenty of demand in Q3 when the tax credit drops. Q4? Who knows.

 

For those that already ordered the base $35,000 standard range Model 3, the $35,000 MSRP will be honored without auto pilot.

Elon promised the moon with a base $35,000 MSRP (and technically fulfilled his promise). There is little competition at this price point in the BEV segment, so although disappointing from a consumer standpoint, this was an excellent business decision.

 

The critic's voodoo Dolls seem to not be working, maybe the musk replicas needs a few more pins shoved through their hearts.


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Personally, I do not disagree with the updated Model 3 pricing strategy. I'm sure the media will continue to blast him for the lack of a true $35K model. But in reality, the SR+ is probably the lowest capacity Model 3 that is a realistic daily driver. Even the LR is a bit on the low side if you consider that the usable range is really 10-90%. So, the range on the Model 3 LR RWD is only 260 miles (.8*325 miles) under ideal circumstances.

 

I have the SR+ (rated 240 EV miles). It’s my daily driver and the wife has a 40kWh Leaf (rated EV 107 miles) as her daily driver. Thus far no problems with this combination nor even any close calls.

We’re taking the M3 to Los Angeles, 400 miles in 2.5 months and continue to anticipate no problems.

Suspect we are not alone wherein any trim version of the Model 3 will be an excellent addition as either a primary or secondary vehicle.

 

A standard plus is 39,500$, no price for the standard is listed, so....is the Standard plus with software controlled range shortened 35,000$?

If not....Bait and Switch, as the 39,500$ stadard plus has the more luxurious interior, well, bait and switch.

 

We all assume that our circumstances apply universally.

An ability to drive a route in CA doesn't translate to a similar ability to travel as easily in other areas. Yet, hopefully.

 

wonder why no none's called the police

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Once again, you are wrong, there was no bait and switch.
Those that wanted the $35k base car have had the opportunity to buy it.
In the future, or maybe even now, you can't, but those that wanted it, and have ordered it, are getting it.

 

If you were the supplier, with the local demand sinking, export tariffs rising, the threat of a battery chemistry change looming and a new supplier competition for the largest market in the world, would you invest?

 

how do we know local demand is shrinking?

 

The announcement posted yesterday. So you may have checked too soon, or you simply missed it.
On the order page, click on the cash button in the lower left corner to select lease or loan options.
Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

From the announcement, it sounds like you still buy the SR. Just not from the site.
"Given the popularity of the Standard Plus relative to the Standard, we have made the decision to simplify our production operations to better optimize cost, minimize complexity and streamline operations. As a result, Model 3 Standard will now be a software-limited version of the Standard Plus, and we are taking it off the online ordering menu, which just means that to get it, customers will need to call us or visit any one of the several hundred Tesla stores. Deliveries of Model 3 Standard will begin this weekend."

Those that have followed Tesla for awhile should have seen this coming. There was originally a 40kWh Model S announced in the beginning. So few were pre-ordered that Tesla cancelled it, but for those pre-orders they delivered a 60kWh car with software limited pack for the 40kWh price. I've even seen critics condemn Tesla for cancelling the 40kWh despite the market realities and their action towards the customer.

The near exact same thing with the Model 3. Some of that lower SR demand is because of Tesla upselling the plus though.

I expect the SR Plus will become SR in a year or two. The Plus's current price is more in line with other available BEVs with more than 200 miles of range. There is also some marketing psychology in play. Tesla is marketed as a more upscale car. It can't be cheaper than a Chevy or Nissan.

I see the problem. The nails aren't aluminum.

I need just 90 miles for my daily needs to account for unexpected trips and weather, and my commute is about 20 miles longer than the US average. People want 200+ miles because even those willing to get a BEV still have some level of range anxiety, and they want to use to car for more than the daily commute.

And the reverse is also true.

Well, sales did go down some between the last two quarters.
Of course, compared to last year, last quarter sales more than doubled.

 

Panasonic looks like they have made some really bad investments in the past. Too much money in plasma. Acquisition of Sanyo for the lithium chemistry in their large format car batteries which have sold poorly (ford and toyota buy them but they have not combined to anywhere near the volume of tesla which uses a chemistry panasonic had control of at the time. The investment in the gigafactory looks like it will pay off this year. Tesla's business for imported panasonic cells on the model X and S has been highly profitable for panasonic, but its volume will likely be down because of demand, then die with a redesign if they go with 2170 cells.

We have no idea of the contract between tesla and panasonic so I have no idea if its a bad move not investing more in the gigafactory. There current investment should make lots of money and they may not want to take additional risk. I have a feeling they are taking additional risk on on other business. Automotive sector is likely to be down in coming years. The only segment that appears to be growing is plug-ins ;-)

Demand is down on the model S and X, which are not supplied by cells produced at the gigafactory. With the 3 and upcoming Y my guess is these will not again get to the level of 100K units a year they had in 2017-2018. Pre 2017 there was a production not a demand restriction.

Demand on the model 3 looks very high. Tesla just made fewer than expected and had more in transit last quarter. Production outside battery cells has been the constraint the last couple of quarters, and my guess is they can build ahead and have no battery constraints through october, but lack of investment may hurt production in november and after.

 

Double post

 

our first Tesla, the model S, was only a 60 kwh. The cool thing about software limited versions is the limit goes to the top of the charge much quicker than the software opened version, because the buffer is only limited at the top - rather than split between bottom & top. It also allows Tesla to do less crash testing then they would have to with lots of different battery sizes because for all intensive purposes, it's the same car.
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Ah, so you're saying tesla delivered 3's with a cloth interior, it's my understanding they haven't.
Got a link?