Featured Tesla to report big drop in sales. Probably.

I'm not sure why you would be mad at wall street about this, it is giving tesla quite a high valuation. Perhaps you mean the shorters and pundits that keep trying to talk it down, and the politicians and lobbies that are trying to stall plug-in sales.

From the numbers - there appears to be an expected decline in demand for the S and X but it is higher than many thought. Purchasers in the US likely moved orders to the end of 2019, and international customers may be waiting for the model 3 and Y instead. Shorters were predicting this decline in 2016 ;-) so 2019 is not bad. These vehicles need redesigns and given competition especially from tesla's own models peak international demand may have already happened. This number is the biggest miss.

Production of the model 3 was over 100 cars a week lower than average expectations. This points to continued production problems at the plant. Bloomberg's estimator which has been more accurate was off by a whopping 1000 cars a week. On the model 3 it will be a production problem not a demand problem at least so far and in the next quarter.

Inventory (mostly in transit) grew by 14,150 while guidance was around 10,000. The number in transit at the end of 2018 was 2907, and now must be around 17,000. This is a much lower number of days than the major auto manufacturers (2 weeks in the US, less than a month world wide in total) but the number shows tesla does have some logistics problems. I would not call them major, but something that needs to be worked on. Tesla manages its shipments so end of the year inventory is very low, and I would expect the problem to be solved by the end of the year.


Tesla Q1 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.

Guidance for deliveries remains for strong growth in unit volume to 360,000 -400,000 in 2019. The lower end of that estimate would mean 47% growth in unit volume compared to 2018.

 

'Bad news' ( in the view of Wall St. ) was bound to happen at some point. I'm actually impressed Tesla held the dogs at bay for so long. However, Wall St. and it's cronies absolutely thrive on 'bad news' events. It's just the way it is.

 

I agree. Tesla also seems to go down with good news though, too. Seems when things are quiet is when they make their steady march up.

 

You think Tesla is bad..try investing in small Biotechs. Really huge risk or really huge reward...nothing in between. I've encountered both.

 

I would add a third explanation to the sales decline, besides (1) loss of $7500 tax credit, and (2) overseas factors.

(3) California HOV policy
Last year California kicked the older plug-ins out of the HOV lanes, requiring free-HOV users to buy new plug-ins to get back into the HOV lanes. This in effect is a gov't driven need to sell your used plug-in and get a new one, that probably was a one-time goose to 2018 sales, although it should be a constant incentive to get rid of plug-ins after a few years in Ca.

@austingreen
"the politicians and lobbies that are trying to stall plug-in sales."
Please tell, all I hear is over-the-top lobbying by Plug-in America (getting as bad as ethanol lobby).

 

day traders are making a fortune on tesla et al. all it takes is media hype one way or the other and you can make $6. on the way up and $6. on the way down

 

Interesting HOV policy change. Seem like there may be some good deals in the used market in the near future!

 

Any clue on how many sales were pushed up in order to get the full federal credit?

 

It is hard to see how it could be more than a few days worth of production...or maybe a week.
When pretty much every car being built has an owner VIN assigned how would they push up the sales...other than suggesting to customers that you better get your cash ready and arrange for pickup, else you lose 1/2 of the federal rebate. For example, when I got my M3 in July I was notified on a Monday and I arranged for pickup the next weekend. How many people say that they'll wait a few weeks?

Mike

 

CNN reporting that further investments in battery factory expansion has been put on hold by all the stake holders. A sign that demand just isn't there.

I often wonder at the wisdom of announcing the Y a year before volume delivery and its effect on Model S/X/3 sales.

 

a story without a source. cnn, the new fox.

tesla: 'we feel we can gain increased production at the existing plant through efficiencies.'

 

I don't know if it is wise, but for customers it keeps them fully informed so they can make good decisions, wouldn't you think?

Mike

 

still can't get a 35k model, demand must be wayyyyyyyyy off.

 

I don't think that is really what the move is really saying
Tesla and Panasonic hit the brakes on battery expansion - SlashGear

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/tesla-panasonic-freeze-expansion-of-gigafactory-nikkei-says

Will This Prove To Be Tesla's Smartest Move In Years?
What looks like really is going on is Tesla may be changing its battery chemistry and looking at alternative suppliers than Panasonic. Panasonic is finally going to get a payoff on its investment in the gigafactory, but they don't look willing to invest any more.

This is a supplier issue not a demand issue. Tesla looks to be perfectly willing to add other battery suppliers and panasonic is saying they don't want to take the risk. The question really is how many batteries the chinese factory will produce this year and next and who the battery supplier will be. The gigafactory in nevada now can produce batteries for around 500,000 cars a year. If they don't start producing battery packs in china this year I would expect at most 360,000 teslas this year, still a healthy growth from last year but the bottom end of their range.

 

And now you can’t.

An Update to Our Vehicle Lineup | Tesla

 

Ah Ha, so, bait and switch, the 35,000$ Tesla that never existed. Glad I got my money back.

 

Sigh.
Yes you can, and many have and are getting them next week.
Please read the article you posted.

 

i didn't read where a $35,000. model is never coming.

i just can't find one currently available

 

i visited the link the article said leasing was available at, and couldn't find anything on leasing

 

Leasing is a joke.