Featured Reasons behind the slowness of EVs adoption in US

Not really. There are now 5 different standards for L3 DC charging and 7 for L2 AC charging. On L2 there is no problem at all.

Think of it this way. We had leaded gas, premium gas, diesel, E10, E85, etc. Octane and sulfur is different in europe than in china than japan. These are all different standards. Did going from leaded gas to unleaded gas cause a problem to make people not buy cars that used unleaded? Did different standards in different countries stop people from buying the cars. Should the governments not gotten rid of leaded gas because old cars might not run properly on it? No, but there was a phase out where stations had both leaded and unleaded gasoline.

In europe they had chademo and tesla, then they standardized on combo plug type one then type 2. For type 1 to type 2 its a simple adapter, like getting a micro sd card with an adapter it slip into so that it can be used in slots for an SD. Similarly such an adapter is used for the standard L2 to tesla on public chargers and included with the cars. Tesla even includes a cable and plug (mobile connector) that has a smart box to plug into 110 and 208-240 VAC standard outlets, with other plugs available for the less standard outlets.

For DC though the communications protocols are different so electronics must be added. In europe tesla has both ccs and tesla connectors on their superchargers. This is rather inexpensive at the charger, much less expensive than having different tanks at gas stations for diesel and gasoline. You wouldn't do that.
Plug wars: the battle for electric car supremacy | Reuters

I actually have 3 different types of outlets at my house on the wall. NEMA 5-15 (110 VAC NA standard), NEMA 1450 (240 VAC - North American electric dryer standard for post 2000 dryers), USB type A. I may change outlets to add USB type C if that becomes standard. Its not a problem. On my last trip I brought a bunch of type 1 adapters (China, New Zealand, Australia - 220 VAC 50 hz) as my electronics could convert but not plug in without them. I suppose you would like north american homes to convert from 5-15 to type one as this will become the biggest market for electronics. No it makes no sense.

Europe is not the world. The likely biggest standard is GB/T as this is the largest market for plug-in cars. This standard is in china, and tesla makes their cars for china using this standard. It would be silly to push it in europe as the German car makers have a lot of power. The french Renault is likely to fully merge with its partner Nissan that has pushed chademo - the standard in Japan. Renault/Nissan appears to have lost the plug wars in europe but Chademo is the standard in Japan. The CCS standard in Europe is type 2 which includes 3 phase, versus type one in north america which is type 1 with a slightly different plug and no 3 phase AC but 1 phase ac and DC up to 400 KW. Chademo is going to change again and probably need a change of plug. Why would tesla rush to change their cars in North America when they have the by far largest networks and easy to use adapters for chademo (and most public chargers that are not tesla have chademo and ccs).

One reason for current growth rates is tesla can not make enough cars to satisfy demand, and the other car companies do not have the battery capacity. This takes time and investment. If other car companies want to sell a lot more cars in north america and they do not buy into the tesla network, then not having enough L3 chargers will slow their growth. Given that only Tesla, Nissan/Renault, byd, and baic have really invested in battery capacity, and only Tesla and Nissan have invested in L3 charging (tesla in North America, China, and Europe, nissan in Japan) it stands to reason that toyota, honda, gm, vw group, mercedes, bmw, ford don't sell many plug-ins. The germans are starting to invest and this will be seen in much greater capacity in 2025.

US went from 1% to 2% in 3 years, china went from 2% to 4% last year, Japan is pushing hydrogen so slow growth in plug-ins, europe is growing fast but the inflection point is probably 2024 there.

 

Steps needed to improve EV adoption:

1. Eliminate the range problem. This means better batteries, probably including some combination of Lithium-Sulfur, Lithium-metal and solid-state electrolytes.
2. Reduce initial car cost. Mostly a battery problem, again.
3. Make sure batteries last 200,000 miles and 15 years at least, and are inexpensive to replace if that becomes necessary. Batteries again.
4. Eliminate the problems charging. Every vehicle should be able to charge anywhere there's a charger. This means Toyota's should be able to use Tesla chargers, PHEVs should be able to use DC chargers, etc.
5. Eliminate charger sparsity. Need chargers in more places, especially smaller towns and on non-interstate highways.
6. Eliminate the problems paying for charging. No one should be *required* to be a member of some random network (Plugshare currently lists Blink, BC Hydro, ChargePoint, Circuit Electrique, Electrify America, EV Connect, EVgo, flo, GE WattStation, Greenlots, myEVroute, SemaCharge, Sun Country, Webast and "Other", not to mention Tesla), and carry a card, dongle or phone app to charge at a charger. You should only need some method of payment. This probably means charging network consolidation.
7. Increase choice. Multiple manufacturers have to make a range of vehicle types, sizes and levels.

 

like so many of these battery "again" / FUD statements - someone's not keeping up with current events -

Tesloop’s Tesla Model S Surpasses 400,000 miles (643,737 kM) — Tesloop

Your ICE should last so long
You see, it's not the batteries fault if some manufacturers choose to do poor thermal management.
You get all this now, for a measly $35k (used - maybe less!)
Unless of course, folks sadly fall w/in the 1%.
.

 

I got a model S as a loner when they were fixing a manufacturing misalignment of my door latches of the model 3. I actually like my model 3 better. Most things I really like on it are on the $37.5K plus model (240 mile range, 134 mpge) that bob just bought. I'm sure that is a better deal for most than a used model S. I'm sure some would prefer a hatchback or larger car, but the clean layout of the 3, the better handling of the car, are nicer IMHO. Bob's isn't awd, but it is lighter because of the smaller battery ;-)

Tesla just can't make enough of these for demand. When they finally get that solved the model Y will be here, so I would say on tesla the cap is manufacturing not demand at least through 2022 when model Y is likely being produced in Nevada and china. Hopefully by then other car makers will have caught up and will have other models to really spike sales.

Serious FUD is being thrown by car dealers because they A) don't have a competitive car, and B) are unlikely to get the service revenue from these cars.

 

C) in collusion with big oil

 

It has been quite helpful to hear from the regular antagonists about EV adoption, especially upon the death of the biggest "vaporware" failure in the industry. Remember Volt? That promise of an efficient & affordable plug-in hybrid never materialized.

The biggest shortcoming was price. We were provided with a "nicely under $30,000" target. It made a lot of sense why GM would set a goal like that. Supposedly, it would be achieved upon initial rollout. That didn't happen. We were told to be patience, the wait for gen-2 would address pricing. It was a let down for many, but fine. Unfortunately, the necessary cost reductions weren't taken seriously. That pricing never materialized... hence, the vaporware label... and the confirmation of price importance. Tax-Credit phaseout push so much pressure on that aspect of competition, the effort was abandoned. Volt production ended without a successor established.

Efficiency played an important role as well, but it was far more subtle. A system requiring less electricity to travel the same distance wouldn't require as large of a battery. That would contribute directly to a smaller, lighter, and less expensive pack. That would require reduce the time & electricity to recharge. It was a factor if design rarely focused upon. Importance of electricity consumption was just ignored. Displacement of gas got so much attention, concern for effiicency was recklessly treated as rhetoric without regard to source or quantity. It was evidence the situation would eventually become a clash of image verses truly being green.

Ultimate, it was the "green" messaging that caused Volt to be trapped in the early-adopter stage. Dealers had no interest in a "EREV" when no one knew what the heck that actually meant. Fights even among Volt enthusiasts made that marketing term a self-destructive concept. The definition continued to change, each time a new plug-in hybrid offering rolled out. That positioned Volt against the entire line of EV choices as well as all of the plug-in hybrids. No one ever really understood what purpose it served. Even the message from GM itself was bewildering. Volt wasn't the intended "range anxiety" solution as promised; rather, it was abandoned shortly after gen-2 rollout in favor of Bolt.

Everyone saw what was happening, but enthusiasts fought hard to evade addressing it. We witnessed propaganda efforts all over online to distract & mislead. How is that ever an effective means of promoting a technology? Needless to say, a massive amount of opportunity was missed as result. Nothing came about to help raise awareness about charging infrastructure. You'd think with that much attention and 150,000 vehicles sold, some message about plugging in would have come about.

Toyota saw this coming... as did I. We saw the value of simply continuing to study & refine while waiting for the GM disaster to playout would be a fruitful endeavor. Patience does have merit. Now, just 3 days before the 50% reduction of GM tax-credits and production of Volt having ended 6 weeks ago, there's a wide open field to play in. None of the other plug-in hybrids presented the unrealistic expectations hyped by GM and their fanboys. In fact, they were the ones who spread the "slow" narrative.

Stepping back to consider the bigger picture (the legacy automaker market as a whole), what reason is there to claim Toyota as being slow?

 

Tesloop’s Tesla Model S Surpasses 400,000 miles (643,737 kM) — Tesloop

On third Battery? Any vehicle can be made to last any amount of miles/time if you keep throwing money at them.

EVs do not have the infrastructure and locations like gas/diesel. They take longer to fill up than gas/diesel. There is no where near the selection of vehicles like gas/diesel. There is no government controlled single standard charging system.

Fix those losses of freedom and the BEV market will adapt. Until then, this "slowness" is just impatience by early adapters...who I do respect by the way.

 

Volt owners - jumping ship, consider the Chevy Bolt to be the Volt's successor. Ie, a Bridge car. Isn't that what we keep saying? A plug-in is just a bridge before getting rid of the ice?
Since it takes 4X the battery - phev VS ev, & a plug-in manufacturer like gm find their company battery supply constrained (in addition to Volt high price), it'd sort of makes sense to ax the Volt - especially when cheap gas is killing smaller car's sales (ah la Prius V ..... not that other hybrid sales aren't hurting as well) altogether.
A post-mortem is always easier then making the right choice from the get-go. GM didn't have the foresight to deliberately curtail Volt sales as the Magic 200,000 Vehicles number approached, the way Tesla did, to help early model 3 sales. So now, some of the fully optioned 2019 volts sit on the lots, with $42,000 (before sales tax) price tags. So, why would anybody buy the volt, much less the bolt regardless how great the cars may be) when they can get a better deal on the SR Model 3. And that doesn't even give consideration to other company's lack of charging infrastructure.
I've done a few test drives in the Chevy Volt, & the fully optioned model is pretty decent, except for its price. The used Market is looking a little better price wise. But again, at least for the US, Volts chapter has closed.

 

Sounds like your beef is with the legacy automakers, not with Tesla.

 

Nice graph. But the source did not include the missing part to the left. See link below. The first digital cameras were in 1975 with a whopping 0.01 MP
The World's first digital camera, introduced by the man who invented it - DIY Photography

Mike

 

And EVs started in the 1800s.

We can ignore prototypes and proof-of-concept demonstrators and focus just on wide-spread availability to consumers.

 

Let me fix that for you...

Gas/diesel vehicles have a substandard infrastructure and locations compared to BEVs. They take longer to fill up than BEVs and require a special stop at a designated fueling station. There is no government controlled single fuel standard system.

Fix those losses of freedom and the ICE market may survive. Until then, this loss of market share is just getting started.​

 

To my, the EV range must be at least 300 mile. That would allow me to drive from Sacramento to Bay Area, charge there and drive back. Or, drive to ski resorts and come back without charging. It should be more than 200 miles during extreme weather, which means as low as 20F and freeway, which reduce EV range by up to 1/3.

 

I need 330 miles in 10°F weather and 450 miles in mild weather, plus greatly expanded fast-charging infrastructure, all at a cost around $30k.

 

In what parallel universe? There are lots of electrical outlets along any trip route, but darn few that I have access to legally. But every 25 miles, there are probably a half dozen or more pumps where I can get 400 miles of range at unrestricted except for safety speeds and unrestricted by temperatures. Those ICE or hybrid fueling stops called gas stations are generally right by the side of the road and well marked, even advance marked on interstates. An unexpected detour is seldom a concern. They all sell regular. I pay with the same card I pay for everything else with. No special connector, card, membership required. Thus freedom from range anxiety, freedom from payment anxiety and freedom from compatibility anxiety.

I want an EV. But one isn't available from a local dealer or sales outlet that fits my needs. Yet. Let me know when a CRV/RAV4 sized 250 mile range EV is available down the street by a manufacturer I think will be in business for the next 10 years and with service widely available and I'll buy one. (About a $60k limit please.) And no the Y doesn't qualify on size or availability. The X on size and price. And the others don't have dealers everywhere, at least not in my town.

 

GM's fundamental problem with Volt was failing to attract its own loyal customers. Those who already owned a GM vehicle couldn't care less about a compact hatchback with a plug. They desired a SUV of some sort. That left it to attract only conquest sales, those early-adopters seeking opportunity in the form of incredibly low leases or a substantial tax-credit.

GM made that worse by listening to enthusiasts about how to make the next generation better. It was the classic "Innovator's Dilemma" business mistake playing out right before everyone's eye. They listened to the wrong people... hence asking "Who?" on a regular basis...which ultimately ended up becoming the lesson learned: "Know your audience."

Volt being abandoned early in its product-cycle is a costly. No automaker ever plans an abrupt stop like that. Calling Bolt a successor makes that already troubled situation even worse. It suffers the same fundamental problem. GM's own loyal customers don't want a compact wagon, especially without tax-credit help.

Toyota gets routinely accused of resisting the EV market by "kicking & screaming". We know that's not true, since their push to phaseout traditional vehicles by offering a wide variety of compelling hybrids is on such a large scale. They are undeniably trying to change the status quo. For those watching carefully, they notice those doing damage-control for GM spinning that situation to draw attention away from GM not even going slow anymore. That previous progress has since come to a complete stop.

This discussion thread about EV adoption has been overlooking that history playing out at this very moment. Those reasons are far more important than quibbling about a past long ago or looking beyond the bridge. We must deal with what's unfolding right now.

 

I understand the desire for easy payment. I think every system has a phone number you can call and just use a credit card.

There are some advantages to using a membership system. I've been using ChargePoint for almost 7 years. But I have a couple others as well.
First, you tap your card and it authorizes in a second or two...no credit card needed; and no one steals these cards (at least not yet). There is no place to swipe a credit card on the charger, thus no credit card skimmers. Gas station fraud is the biggest or one of the biggest locations for credit card fraud.
Second, you get an account where you can view your usage over time and in real-time.
Third, since it does take longer than pumping gas you don't stand there waiting. The system knows your phone number and/or email and notifies you of the status and when done...or you can view online or in the app.
Gas stations require an employee (I think in every state)...but chargers can be in parking garages, curb-side, in parking lots, wherever. No need for an employee...but you can call someone if there is an issue with payment.

With Tesla's Superchargers you don't even need to tap a card--there isn't one. The charger knows your car's ID when it connects. Someone has to steal your car in order to steal fuel and it can only go into your car. And by charging the thief just gave away their location.
(Of course you can also track your car on the phone app)

Mike

 

Thank you for driving home my point.
To answer your question, in my universe.
But just as I can’t apply how well BEVs work for our family, others can’t say BEVs don’t work at all because of their individual circumstances.

The only question is, what percentage of the market will PHEVs and BEVs work well for. And, how close are we to that level of market penetration.
I believe PHEVs & BEVs have a potential market of at least 50%. This means we have a long way to go before that is saturated.
Thus, the future is quite bright for that market.

 

PHEVs will work for 100% of the market. BEVs as they exist today will work for <5% of the market.