Why Toyota is not selling electric cars

Toyota is about tried-and-true technology. Nothing about modern Toyotas is really cutting edge (though they are the first to have 40%+ thermal efficiency engines). Why is anyone at all surprised by this?

 

So too does the engine block, cylinder head, pistons, crank shaft, valves, valve train, transmission, radiator, catalytic converter, and fuel tank. Steel, aluminum, and other materials are needed. I'd just like to see a more accurate accounting.

Bob Wilson

 

There was a conversation here where somebody cited some more specific information. I don’t immediately recall where.

However, that video made a point to cite its sources, so...

 

fake news?

 

Toyota Expected To Launch Electric Van Or SUV In Europe By 2021

 

where will they get the batteries?

 

Exactly this. There is a reason why the Toyota Land Cruiser is used in every armed conflict all over the world. It is a bulletproof truck that literally has a war named after it, because it's that good.

Toyota is not in the business of putting unproven tech out there for the masses. I am thankful for that after owning a German car full of unproven technology that fails.
Toyota War - Wikipedia

 

then they should just say so

 

I wouldn't say I am, any longer, surprised. I am disappointed though.
And the reason is that Toyota, 20 years ago, was a pioneer. They came up with the best hybrid option, and drove hybrid sales. They were THE leader in the hybrid market.
Now to see them use the same FUD tactics that had been used against them is, well, disappointing.

 

Yeah, I think you two are pretty much nailing it there. Toyota is fundamentally a very conservative company. BEV is a radical departure.

A big part of that is not wanting to make too many big changes at once, since they risk compromising reliability.

Plus, for some mysterious reason, they just keep towing the fuel-cell line, despite volumes of evidence that HFC a dead end for at least the next ten years...

 

I always assume Toyota assigns top or at least much priority to Japan's needs.

Per wikipedia
"The (Japan plug-in) segment market share fell from 0.68% in 2014 to 0.59% in 2016.[7] The decline in plug-in car sales reflects the Japanese government and the major domestic carmakers decision to adopt and promote hydrogen fuel cell vehicles instead of plug-in electric vehicles.."

 

One can guess and suppose all they want about this...but let's be honest...a die hard BEV advocate is happy with no one but Tesla. A lot of us are happy just to find low TCO reliable vehicles. That really is why most of came to appreciate Toyota's Prius and why we are on this forum.

 

I believe they process the hydrogen in Australia to keep that pollution out of Japan.

 

I personally am a pretty rabid fan of Tesla, but I don’t own one, yet at least. If my wife didn’t despise the Model 3’s screen and if the Model X weren’t so expensive, there’s a fair chance we’d own one, but the biggest reason we don’t is just simple reliability.

Ironically though, the fact that Teslas are BEVs has very little effect upon their reliability; their drive trains are, arguably, a Tesla’s most-reliable part! That’s one thing Toyota seems to be pretty brain-dead about regarding BEVs.

However, the main reason Toyota is brain-dead about EVs is simply their waaaay-misguided belief in HFC EVs. They can’t seem to grasp the concept of a car that doesn’t need to be “fueled up” in minutes, and that the vast majority of the time, overnight charging (where available) works absolutely great. Plus, 350KW fast chargers (100ish miles in 10ish minutes) are starting to be deployed as we speak. Plus, even if HFC and PEM hydrogen-generation efficiency is improved over time from the current 65%ish up to 80%, gasoline-electric hybrids probably have better well-to-wheel efficiency than HFC vehicles (

).

I don’t think I overall agree that BEV fans and Tesla fans are one-and-the-same. There are also many LEAF fans, BMW i3 fans, some Bolt fans, and quite a few who are seeeeriously excited about what Porsche, Jaguar, Audi, and other European makers are starting to sell. Also, Hyundai and Kia have some dang impressive BEVs coming to the US market soon! Plus, don’t forget that Chinese BEV makers like BYD are starting to sell a lot of BEVs!

 

Those EV groups seem to intersect too. A coworker who has a Leaf also got a Model 3 a few months ago.
@bwilson4web an i3 owner is ow looking at also getting a Model 3.

The Model Y will be less expensive than the X but will likely have the same screen as the Model 3.

My wife cannot understand why anybody would want a plugin, even with years of Prius experience in our family.

 

Making H2 is not a big pollution issue, except some feel any use of fossil fuels is bad.
Japan has no fossil fuels so they need to find ways to diversify.
Going to BEV is not necessarily the solution for Japan especially as niuclear is less favored for them now.

 

I would suggest that the working class still depends on the freedom of infrastructure, time and convenience currently provided for and by gas and hybrid/gas vehicles. Can you imagine the chaos if tomorrow all vehicles were BEV, hydrogen.

As of now, alternative power vehicles are still a limited market and changes to said market are generational, requiring more than just a new model offering. My guess...Toyota knows what they are doing in the long game. YMMV

 

Except that they came out with the Prius. No hybrid has sold as well or as long. I have to wonder why they took that jump. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that Toyota is waiting for the vehicle charging stations to get plopped all over the countries such that people could pretty much be assured they could find an open charger anywhere they may want to drive. I suspect some number of the manufacturers starting to get into EVs now will bail, perhaps Toyota is waiting to see what the market is in the future. I wouldn't at all mind a 250 mile range all EV Prius.

When the 2004 Prius started selling REALLY WELL, Chevy put on their Bill Gates mask and said DON'T buy a Prius, they are a fad, won't work well and we'll have a hydrogen fuel cell car in 5 years. 15 years later, no GM fuel cell vehicle. They came out with their mild hybrids, which failed because they had little if any merit unlike the Prius which pretty much doubled the MPG of even most compact cars. Now GM is SUPPOSEDLY going all out on EVs now, killing off the Volt after this year. I considered a Bolt but I'm not trusting of GM and their willingness to stick to a program, especially since they are no longer going to produce the Volt.

Interesting video on hydrogen fuel cells, very informative. I wonder how much energy is spent to drill, pump, refine, transport a gallon of gasoline compared to how much energy we get out of it to run our cars.

And the DC-AC-DC conversion losses with wind and solar: I wonder if (actually I suspect it is doable today, don't know if anyone does) I could get a DC converter connected to my solar array (along with the inverter) that could directly charge my car rather than converting it to AC and then putting that into my service panel and/or the grid. Of course there would have to be a bunch of specific converters since not all solar arrays put out the same voltage and not all plugable cars have batteries with the same voltage. I don't know about the Gen III vs Gen IV but IIRC, the voltage of the Gen I, II and III are all different.

 

IIRC, the reported results of that study were for worse case variables.

Appendix B of the UCS Cradle to Grave report covers their methods. The GREET model was used for most of it.
Life Cycle Electric Vehicle Emissions (2015) | Union of Concerned Scientists

This is a summary report from ICCT of recent research on the subject.
Effects of battery manufacturing on electric vehicle life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions | International Council on Clean Transportation

Going to have to cancel the Prius.

Reforming fossil fuels for hydrogen isn't much of a solution for carbon emissions. It might be better than burning the fuel in a car. It could even be better than a plug in, if fossil fuels were your only electrical generation source.

The issue for Japan in regards to plug ins is that they have an under powered grid that makes home charging a BEV impractical for half their house holds; Charging up a Prime takes over 10 hours in those. So hydrogen cars may work for them. But in order for the cars to become affordable for there, Toyota and Honda need to push them in markets in which plug ins are a much better solution.

Because there was a government program back home supporting low emission vehicle development and sales.

GM's first fuel cell concept car dates back to 1966. The next one didn't show until 2001. Government funds drying up, and their own financial troubles, lead to GM stopping development on their. Before their partnership with Honda, GM was the largest fuel cell patent older among the car companies. The FCEV after the Clarity will be a joint GM-Honda product.

The Volt is no more in the US, but so is the Cruze sedan. So the Volt demise may have little to do with it being a plug in. It was not abandoned though, and does still live on in China as the Buick Velite, which will be getting a crossover version soon.Soon after that, China will get GM BEVs.

The Mirai is a 4 seater Camry that would cost about as much as a Model S without the subsidies. It took Toyota over 20 years to get to market. But the real expense, and what makes it a non-starter in the US, is the cost for the infrastructure

The conversion losses are probably low enough to make starting a business installing what you propose not worthwhile.

 

This scare has been debunked (and the bubble popped).