Featured Will Piston Engines Get Clobbered by Electrics?

I would add in addition to the 80 miles per hour electric capability, let it do ICE assist at the drivers option - whether that's just to save ev for later, Hill Climb, freezing cold weather coolant assist warmup Etc
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what if someone comes up with something new between now and the death of the piston. fusion?

 

China is becoming the dog, and the U.S. and most of the rest of the world will become the tail. They're going to wag us with electric vehicles. Don't forget India's huge market potential and the price and availability of gasoline as major factors. The biggest problem with electric is the weak charging infrastructure. It will make or break the progress curve. I think the U.S. will be one of the last to abandon ICE cars.

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AChoiredTaste.com

 

at least politically. but politics in other countries can change as well. china does nothing that doesn't preserve or advance their own self interest.

 

And tires that never go flat!!!

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Ford's already done that.

 

how did that work out?

 

Like anything, right tool for the job. Are you going to drill into concrete with a household electric drill, an impact hammer, or a squib gun? All will do the job, how is up to you.

 

The US does nothing that doesn't preserve or advance their own self interest.

 

No one does.

 

You could put any country name in the above sentence, too. Just how it is.

Dang, Frodoz beat me.

 

Day off and coffee.

 

Well there was a guy that invented carburetor claiming 100 MPG back in the early late 40's / 50's. I'm not entirely clear if this was just a myth by last thing I heard he got lobotomize.

 

But do all these countries have enough electric power to make the change that fast with climates changing. cloudy days, green policies, coal power plants and nukes shutdowns, etc? Especially the countries where growth is expected in the next 10 years?

 

Power capacity is not an issue. Converting all miles driven in the US to electric would increase our annual power usage by 10%, i.e., 4000 TWh to 4400 TWh. Not a problem.

 

Now what must the power companies (or building owners) invest to add 10% considering the other pressures to decommission and replace?

 

Lots of baseload gets wasted at night. Could be a win-win. Think about this: US generating capacity runs on average of 50% because there are some peaker plants that only run 4 hrs a day - very expensive. Storage to shift the load don't have to be that cheap to be a win for a utility, so things like the Tesla power wall are being considered by commercial power utilities today. The unit in Australia is doing so well, that power company is looking to use more of them.

BTW, US generating capacity is cited as 1000 GW (1 TW). There are ~ 8000 hrs in a year, so if they were all running at 100%, the US would be generating 8000 TWh per year, but the number is actually 4000 TWh, thus the 50% average. Most of the plants that are not peakers run in the 80 to 90 % range per my understanding.

 

Clobbered?
It will be a series of things.
First, no new development in IC engines by all the major car companies (5 - 10 years away at the earliest)
Second, continued shipment of ICE cars even though the the nails are going into the coffin (another 5 years) [Note: see Sears]
Third, bankruptcies for those who didn't get the memo (Model 3 ramp up) lasting maybe 5 or 10 more years
Fourth, the long tail. 25 years where the hold out consumers keep their ICE cars running
Big Industrial equipment will also have this long tail.

Mike

 

5 years? I'm not sure about you, but if it's 5 years as you predict I ought to be seeing workers installing charging stations just about everywhere beginning yesterday. lol My own opinion on the whole thing is that yes, it's obvious the ICE will become obsolete. But there needs to be a massive increase in the driving distance before the ICE goes away. This 100 mile & less stuff that electrics currently give us just won't cut it.