Featured Will Piston Engines Get Clobbered by Electrics?

Countdown, 30 minutes

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If you meant to put a link, I couldn't find it.

Is this it ?

 

nah, it will be a long slow death. my guess is 50 years

 

Define kill.
10% of today's volume or $ amount? 1%? 0%? Number of companies making Gasoline engines? etc.

 

I keep wondering how long the personal car will survive. Like @bisco, I think whatever happens it'll be a slow death, 50 yearish.

 

A lot faster than anyone thinks. will be limited by how fast the auto companies can make them. Personal car ownership is also in decline. Major dent in 15 yrs. Banned in certain countries by certain dates, but the bans are unnecessary. Once someone goes electric, they won't go back to ICE.

 

That's a pretty safe bet. You could miss it by, 15 or 20 years & we maybe won't be around to be proven wrong.

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I always thought electric cars would be cheaper to build than ICE cars and the masses can afford cheap.

 

Two major trends. While not limited to Europe, many European cities are preparing to ban diesel cars. The type of car that will the take the place of diesel will likely be battery powered. This is a large market.

Second major trend is the auto market in China. Due to the enormous economies of scale the general trend will likely see lower cost EV's and rapid innovation. This will have a big impact in Asia and around the world.

ICEs will be around for a while yet. But this is a "follow the money" situation. When car companies stop putting money into research and development of ICEs, the end of piston engines will be nigh.

Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.

 

right? about the same bet the manufacturers make when they claim half their fleet will be electrified by 2025

 

I swear I didn't know about this. but mused on this very topic in a different thread.

I don't know the timeline.
But my opinion is, Combustion, Piston technology is by default inefficient and archaic. It survives because we are still a fossil fuel based economy and because of it's convenient popularity.
It does not exist because it's the best way to power you or anyone from Point A to Point B.

I think it's demise is inevitable.

If you were designing a vehicle from scratch with all available information and technology that exists today, but no real connection or knowledge of a Piston Engine reality?
Would you choose to build a Piston Engine?
I think the answer is no.
Not if you at all valued efficiency and durability.

 

A lot of countries in the world, are they all going to toe the line?

 

There is no line to tow. Consumer demand and lower cost will win the day. The switch over will definitely happen in the next 5 yrs. That is why I'm not concerned about CAFE standards or allowing Ca to go their own way - this is last year's battle - they will become irrelevant. It is like worrying about horse crap standards for horse powered vehicles in 1910 - by 1925 horses will not be on the road anymore.

 

I should bookmark this and come back in 5 years, see how it panned out.

And, I know it's politically incorrect these days, but you don't tow a line, lol. Well, not that kinda line.

 

if i were designing a car today, with no restrictions, preconceived notions and all known efficiencies, i would probably design a combustion engine.

there are too many technological restrictions at this point in ev development

 

Profit drives industry, cost drives Market...and the variables within each determines direction.

 

who's going to buy it if i build a 600 mile gasser for cheap?