Featured Toyota apparently abandons the BEV market for now.

What is this then?
Toyota and Panasonic to build electric car batteries together - Nikkei Asian Review

Toyota apparently wants a big share in battery production, If I understand this correctly Toyota will own majority (51%) in ALL Panasonic battery plants (except Tesla plant). Why would they do this if the EVs are not the right path? Maybe they are quiet about it so the sales of convetional cars go on, and on and on ... until they introduce a proper EV.

 

As far as I know all li-ions in Toyotas currently come from Panasonic. It looks like Prime Earth EV energy supplies only NiMH, but I may be wrong.

 

Exclusive interview with Toyota hydrogen boss lays out how fuel cells will become as cheap as gas cars - The Drive

"It is Toyota’s plan to bring the price of fuel cell cars to the level of hybrid cars by 2025, but “personally, I am not very comfortable with that target,” Hirose admits. “To change the world into alternative fuel, we need to provide the fuel cell cheaper than conventional vehicles. That is my personal objective. I think it can be done.”

...“Toyota's optimism on fuel cell costs is quietly shared in the industry, even as batteries have deservedly earned headlines. As the production of fuel cells scales, their cost will plummet.”

 

“With 70% of the battery cost tied to raw materials, cost optimizations must focus on the remaining 30%, and “the battery is already scaled out,” says Hirose. But haven’t battery costs come down a lot? “Battery cost has come down drastically because of overcapacity,” Hirose says. “Batteries are a commodity, and if someone sells them 10% cheaper, they get the sale, increasingly below cost.” The huge battery factories built around the world require monstrous up-front investments, and advances in technology leave little time to recoup the CAPEX. Toyota’s battery partner Panasonic wrote “$7 bln in losses in two years, mainly over the write-down of an outdated battery factory,” Hirose says, “and many battery makers are in the same situation.”

Panasonic makes the battery cells that Tesla then turns into battery modules in its Nevada Gigafactory. Panasonic is “still losing money” with Tesla, Panasonic President Kazuhiro Tsuga recently told Bloomberg, saying he was hopeful it would change. Meanwhile, the round 18650 and 2170 cells Panasonic makes for Tesla are already outdated, and when Toyota and Panasonic announced an alliance to first make prismatic cells, and then solid state, Tsuga was publicly hoping that technology would not advance too quickly, saying that “If we would have shift to solid state batteries all in a sudden, our investments would be wasted.”

 

Meanwhile, in the real world:

The fuel cell advocates observe that electricity is generated by natural gas combustion, ~60% efficient. Then that energy is distributed by the efficient, electric grid to vehicle battery EV. If the fuel cell advocates were looking at total efficiency, they need to start at the well-head. So a better fuel cell application would be to replace natural gas, combustion engine powered, generators with utility scale fuel cell generation:

1. Reformulate natural gas to hydrogen at utility scale (already done in refineries)
2. Utility scale fuel cells making grid electricity (experiments but not done)

If the fuel cell advocates were focused on replacing natural gas fueled generators with utility sized, fuel cell power plants at higher than 60% efficiency, we'd be in agreement. Then use the grid to efficiently distribute power to BEV vehicles. But their big mistake is trying to force fit hydrogen into a gasoline-like, distribution system.

There is a tradeoff between heavier battery and lighter fuel cell powered, semi-trailer trucks. The fuel cell weight savings can improve the return on investment. But the operational cost of hydrogen, ~3-4x higher than BEV, also steals the return on investment. The only question is which is less bad.

Bob Wilson

 

This is more about the competition from China, and the market there. Toyota sells a BEV there, but only because they have too, and it is a market they can't afford to ignore. The question is when will Toyota sell BEVs in other markets.

It took them decades to get a Camry level hydrogen FCEV down to the price in the $60k to $100k range; depends upon the level of government incentives.

 

OMG! Hirose's 2 statements
1 -

on what planet does one extrapolate "fear" through Musk's hydrogen reference term, "mind-bogglingly stupid" .... and on what planet is the Platinum needed for a fuel stack also not a scarce natural resource ... much like the CO2 belching - natural non renewable resources Toyota plans on using to reform hydrogen?
2 -
Mocking the BEV industry? for garnering clean car incentives? all the while the hydrogen industry is hardcore lobbying to ensure that the BEV industry gets a scintilla of a fraction of incentives that the hydrogen lobby gets for itself?

How is that dialogue itself not, "mind-bogglingly stupid" on top of "mind-bogglingly stupid"

In the world of The Gambler, they call that, doubling down. That virtually never goes well.
Hirose ought to read hydrogen expert / physicist Robert Zubrin's article on the how and why a hydrogen car is" mind-bogglingly stupid" - because that is not just one smart guy's opinion.

The Hydrogen Hoax - The New Atlantis

Actually, I'm sure Hirosesan does grasp the mind-bogglingly stupid notion, but hey, the poor guy does have to pay his bills.

Simple. Follow that lack of logic to its illogical conclusion. Over the decades, many Auto plants have been closed completely. Ergo, ice vehicles are unreliable and not economically feasible. GM just shuttered several plants & axed employees. Ergo - there's no money in ICE, & they are unreliable. See how illogical that is?

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And the official announcement:
Toyota and Panasonic Agree to Establish Joint Venture Related to Automotive Prismatic Batteries | CORPORATE | TOYOTA Global Newsroom

- by the end of 2020
- 51 percent for Toyota and 49 percent for Panasonic
- ...related to automotive prismatic lithium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, and next-generation batteries.
- The total number of employees 3,500 (as of the end of December 2018)

 

Samsung has prismatic lithium cells for automotive solutions already. Does anybody know if the BMW is the only brand using it?

 

Pouch and prismatic are not that different. As far as I know only Tesla uses cylindrical cells.

 

And the newly announced, Rivian pickup and SUV.

Bob Wilson

 

KPMG: “Fuel cell electric vehicles have replaced battery electric vehicles as this year’s #1 key trend until 2025”

https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/nl/pdf/2018/sector/automotive/global-automotive-executive-survey-2018.pdf

 

That certainly is an odd German publication

I like the stats but the rather big statement in the middle has less proof and plenty of conjecture

 

That link is not very informative. So I asked Google and got:
Global Auto Execs Skeptical of BEV’s: KPMG Survey | KPMG | US

Auto Executives, Consumers Skeptical of the Viability of Pure Battery Electric Vehicles: KPMG Survey
January 5, 2018

OEMs investing heavily in electric mobility, with Tesla and BMW seen as the leaders . . .​

A plug-in hybrid owner, I choose my rides based on my requirements, not a survey. However, I agree with this statement:

. . .
Meanwhile, 67 percent of all consumers surveyed say they don’t care about drivetrain technology, they just want the most durable, cost-competitive solution that gets them from point A to point B.​

When I was working, I only spoke with other 'gear heads' because I didn't have to explain the terms I was using. Non-motor heads don't understand even ordinary car technology.

Bob Wilson

​

 

To do the impossible - namely, consider the reliability of your sources. In this instance, the article? - it's Germany, the fine folks that brought us dieselgate ..... sure! i'd rely on them as a source for accuracy

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'67 percent of motorists don't care about drivetrain technology, thy just want the biggest, baddest carbon burner available'

 

until the pump (again) always requires a Benjamin or more. No one learns from history.
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nope. least of all inhumans

 

Amongst other things.