Toyota admits being hurt by Tesla, gives tepid response

Source: Toyota Motor North America Reports December 2018, Year-End Sales | Corporate

PLANO, Texas (January 3, 2019) – Toyota Motor North America (TMNA) today reported December 2018 sales of 220,910 vehicles, a decrease of 0.9 percent from December 2017 on a volume basis. With the same number of selling days in December 2018 compared to December 2017, sales were down 0.9 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis.
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Your "Toyota sales are down" passes over Toyota sales in December are pretty close to Tesla's total production in 2018: Tesla Q4 2018 Vehicle Production & Deliveries, Also Announcing $2,000 Price Reduction in US | Tesla, Inc.

...
In 2018, we delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles: 145,846 Model 3 and 99,394 Model S and X. To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined.
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Then we can look at Toyota hybrids, apart from their ordinary gas cars:

	Model	Dec 2018	Total 2018
1	Prius Sedan	3111	49534
2	RAV4 Hybrid	3236	48124
3	Prius PRIME	2759	27595
4	RX Hybrid	2179	15656
5	NX Hybrid	1367	9062
6	Prius C	480	8399
7	Prius V	1	2062
8	Camry Hybrid	?	?
9	Avalon Hybrid	?	?
10
11	All hybrids	13133	160432

Note the Camry and Avalon hybrid numbers were not listed so the total hybrid sales is larger than 160,432. As Toyota expands the number of hybrid models, we can expect these numbers to increase which is a good thing. Each of these hybrids have significant fuel savings over the gas equivalent. But they are also a 'gateway' to plug-in hybrids and full EVs.

An old man, I use "bait" as in what would attract a performance Tesla to shame a Supra. Soon enough we'll see a YouTube titled "Tesla vs Supra" where a Tesla does the same to the Supra as it has to just about every other high performance, ICE car. I was remembering this:

At 1:40, "a 0 to 60 in just over 4 seconds"

A retired engineer, I prefer facts and data. Just you're not doing any good by coming to the 'House of Prius' and throwing snark. You might consider following the examples of @hill and other senior members who share facts and data, adding value to the forum, and except for humor, don't waste time with useless put downs like:

FYI: List of fastest production cars by acceleration - Wikipedia

The Supra won't even show up in that list. Makes you wonder why they even bothered.

Bob Wilson

 

The imbedded table above years are off.

But valid points and coaching .

 

Toyota stated they expect the hybrid penetration here (North America) for their fleet to increase by 6% in the next 2 years, from 9% to 15%. That's growth of about 150,000.

So, where the supposed "hurt" from Tesla happens is uncertain. At a time when the EV market is still just going after low-hanging fruit, it's difficult to take the doom & gloom predictions seriously.

RAV4 hybrid looks like it will be a major contributor to that progress away from traditional vehicles, targeting their core buyers with a cleaner more efficient choice. What other legacy automaker will be attempting something similar within the same next 2 years?

We're certainly not going to see 75,000 annual more electrified anything here from the so-called leader GM in that timespan.

In other words, reality is about to set in.

 

9% to 15% of what exactly?

 

Just over 4 seconds ... let me check my watch - yep, that means 5 seconds
When i translated to 5 seconds & saw the picture of the video above - I thought Bob had mistakenly stuck a BMW Z3 video in there;

Purportedly $50,000 ... the toyota - not sure about the Z3.

or - blend facts & humor ... keeps 'em guessing - & shows it's not worth getting one's shorts all bunched up

 

It's in the quote you replied to.

 

i think John means that percentage to represent more cars having the Synergy Drive dropped into them, kind of like the RAV4, Highlander, Lexus RX Etc .... & phase out of ice means the ice no longer Powers the vehicle on its own. If I got that right, it sure would be great to see their big pick up done 1st - but some have expressed doubt as to whether the Synergy Drive is the best way to haul a horse or 5½ ton travel trailer.
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Of course a question might be is there a market for a pickup form factor without all that towing capability. One that can bring the clothes dryer home, the 72" 4k TV, the lumber, etc and maybe even tow a light trailer with a lawnmower on it. But not configured to do the heavy stuff that is currently the diesel market. The urban practical vehicle, not targeted for the serious farmer. Able to fit in an urban parking space or garage space. Say maybe 35MPG. Hybrid? Based on a car or multi-model platform.

 

2017 Chevy fullsize van 2.8... Hit 33.3 mpg highway - Fuel Economy, Hypermiling, EcoModding News and Forum - EcoModder.com

 

The old Supra has a cult following. A low mileage one recently sold for $121k.
That $121,000 Supra Is Now Listed for Sale - Low-Mileage Supra Relisted for $500,000

Toyota has been teasing concepts for a new one for years because of that popularity. So it is finally arriving. Its coming to market has nothing to do with Tesla or in challenging them. It arrives for the same reason the FJ cruiser was sold.

This phase out still leaves a fossil fuel as the energy source, and only helps a little in terms of global warming and carbon emissions.

As for towing, that HSD with a 4 speed auto mated to it in the new Lexus is likely their answer for hybrid trucks. I think we'll have hybrid F150s on the road before we know how well the Toyota system does, or possibly know if one will come to market.

Minivans can do that job, and Toyota had hybrid models for years. Yet one of the last companies to electrification was first to market here with a hybrid minivan.

Ford is rumored to be bringing a unibody pick up that is smaller than the Ranger to the US. Like small cars, small trucks will be a price sensitive segment. HSD adds at least $2000 to the price. I know the new Rav4 hybrid is 'just' $800 more, but that is in comparison to the AWD ICE model, which, IIRC, is $2100 more than the FWD model. The use cycle you describe does not need AWD.

 

Ah, now I think I understand.
Toyota predicts the percentage of their own fleet that is hybrids to grow from 9% to 15%?
This is a good thing, although I would think it would be higher.

Now, do you think that will actually increase the market share of hybrids in the general market?
I think EVs (PHEVs & BEVs) market share will grow much faster.

 

intriguing thet Lentz admits Tesla is hurting toyota sales (certainty other manufacturers feel it too) - even as this Business Insider contributor claims that the industry isn't influenced (by that phenomenon).
Doesn't that notion exemplify a shocking level of lethargy?
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My thinking is hybrids and PHEVs are a 'gateway' to EVs. The step from hybrid-to-EV or hybrid-to-PHEV is a lot easier than ICE-to-EV.

Bob Wilson

 

I agree with that with the additional note that hybrids are a gateway to both PHEVs and BEVs. The also are not the only gateway to EVs.
It would be interesting over the next 5-10 years to watch the cumulative sales of hybrids and PHEVs.

 

A sizable number of Tesla buyers come from ICE.

 

Know your audience. Those buyers are all early-adopters, not representative of mainstream consumers... none of which will have the $7,500 incentive or "first on the block" reward. The next stage will be very, very different.

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Consideration of what the computer industry did to overcome the same low-margin problem is very important at this point. Knowing that history, you wouldn't ask the question.

Their solution was divergence. Each manufacturer took a different direction, attempting to capture what they thought would be a large enough market for them to sustain profitable business in their new paradigm. That's why I keep repeating KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE over and over again.

In fact, that was the very reason I kept asking "Who is the market for Volt?" on a regular basis. I could see GM was making that fundamental mistake and kept getting personally attacked for questioning those actions. Turns out, I was quite correct. They were pursuing sales in a market with very few potential buyers. They didn't understand the shift. It was old-school logic failing in a changing business.

In other words, whether or not market share increases is meaningless. GM's choice to disregard their own customers in favor of conquest proved to be a terrible decision. Toyota observed that targeting mistake and has taken great risk to avoid it. Which is rather ironic, since many claimed they were not taking any risk. Toyota will focus on their own customers. That's why it doesn't matter what others do.

This is easier to see if you switch economic perspectives from micro to macro. You'd notice that variance in battery suppliers & chemistries alone are enough to confirm each automaker will take a different path. Then, of course, there's the reality that some automakers are abandoning cars entirely and others are transforming them.

Haven't you noticed the risk Toyota has taken by steering Prime in the direction of being a step-up vehicle, no longer favoring the Prius "family mover" image anymore? That's why they risked elimination of the middle seat, to more closely mimic "post children" offerings. That is also why it wasn't deemed essential to maximum cargo space. Priorities have changed.

That spin & short-sightedness we have to deal with from people not recognizing necessary approach changes coming and how much more complex choices will become is unfortunate. This is why I appear to get rather terse sometimes. It needs to be stressed that reaching electrification goals won't be the same for each automaker.

To put it shortly, the formula for success in the past doesn't work anymore. So, the measure of progress and success won't be the same either.

 

• Tesla P100D vs The Baddest Racecars
• Lamborghini Aventador vs Tesla Model X - DRAG & ROLLING RACE
• Tesla Model S P100D vs Mclaren 720S DRAG RACE
• Gutted Tesla TROLLS the Streets!
• 840HP Dodge Demon 1/4 Mile with Race ECU vs Tesla Model S P100D Drag Racing
• $3200 Race - Gutted Tesla P100D vs Nitrous Foxbody Mustang
• Tesla Model X P100D Ludicrous sets World Record vs Lamborghini Aventador SV Drag Racing 1/4 Mile
• Lamborghini Urus v Tesla Model X v Mercedes-AMG G63 v Range Rover Sport SVR - DRAG & ROLLING RACE
• Tesla Model S Hustles NEW Corvette Z06 & Modded Hellcat
• . . .

Bob Wilson

 

The most intriguing (unscientific) drag race was the Alfa Romeo Spider (which has a 0-60second time of 5½ Seconds) vs a Movel X - & the X was TOWING another Alfa Spider on a trailer!
The exhibition was to demonstrate the torque of the model X. Not only did the model X win the drag race, even the Alfa Romeo on the TRAILER beat the Alpha that was racing the X.

Alfa 4C Spider vs Tesla Model-X video » Autojunk.nl (169635)
Original w/ dialogue was 4 minutes. At one time you could watch the whole drag race, even in slow-mo - but it looks like it was taken off youtube for unknown reasons.
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