Featured Another VW claim on EV

i also, am planning a tesla rival.

 

Maybe just stick to cookie crumbling... You're good at it.

 

Couldn't wait, so I bought a Spark EV.

 

There are already BEVs that cheap available. They just have sub 100 mile ranges. Great if that works for you. The Ioniq and Leaf both have a starting MSRP here of under $30k. None of these could be called Tesla rivals.

Friend will be looking to replace the family's second car next year; an Accord well north of 200k miles. I plan on trying to get him into a used Leaf or Spark EV since most trips are 12 miles or less for the Accord. A Prime if he decides on new.

 

I'd be thrilled if they follow though with this plan. I won't be holding my breath though (unless one of their diesels is nearby).

 

Isn't this "philosophy" actually one of the biggest challenges to Tesla's future?
IMO, Tesla has made exciting products, and really been pioneers in nearly no compromise, performance electric vehicles.

But they have had to do it nearly from scratch as not only innovators but also as an automaker themselves.

Existing manufacturing giants, like VW, Toyota, can decide at any time to get into the game, to any degree, and very quickly out produce and undercut Tesla in price, as an available product.

So far, most mainstream giants have been comfortable enough letting Tesla clear the trail, my fear is when circumstance and/or demand get's realized, VW, Toyota and others could easily make Tesla a very high end choice, by mass producing similar products significantly cheaper.

 

Good!!
The whole goal of Tesla is to accelerate to adoption of sustainable transportation.
They know that they can't do it alone, so they need help.
I am amazed other companies have given them this much time.

That said, I will likely be sticking with the company whose mission is to speed the adoption of sustainable transportation, as opposed to a mission to get better at cheating on the bare minimum pollution standards.

 

The question I'm posing is how much of a threat to Tesla is this reality?

This article is specific to rumored intent of VW...but scandal and fraud aside? VW is still an automotive manufacturing giant, and what VW can do? So can Toyota and GM and other mass producers.

There's a difference between being the unique, trail blazing, innovative pioneer product, and suddenly perhaps competing against mass produced products that may be able to offer similar performance at mass produced prices. With mass produced replacement parts, and insurance rates that apply to mass produced vehicles.

We are a long way from seeing how this plays out. I lived through cycles of automotive companies proclaiming any number of "future paths" that get taken or bypassed. Seems like just a few years ago, when the buzz was Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles, and that has at least temporarily died down. How committed VW becomes? What they actually produce? If other automotive companies follow suit to any degree? All remain to be seen.

Ultimately however, I think the reality is, Tesla can't be idealistic to the point of welcoming "adoption of sustainable transportation" that directly competes with themselves, to the point that it could threaten their own existence.
That's not help. That's the bell tolling.

But again, this is hypothetical projection....not yet an existing reality.

 

Many thought that when competition to the iPhone arrived Apple would be doomed because the competition would undercut iPhone prices. Competition arrived and undercut prices substantially, but the competitors never really got a significant profit share slice which Apple retains the lions share to this day.

In a similar light, Tesla has a likely shot to continue to be "pioneers in nearly no compromise, performance electric vehicles" when the competitors get more serious with its offerings. I would be surprised to see Tesla sell low profit margin budget electric vehicles since they don't have to. Apple still makes no low end products.

 

the competition doesn't have their own battery factory

 

$10,000 and it works great for me.

 

None.

VW is talking about making 200,000 of these cars at some future date.
The plugin market is about 1.5 Million this year.
This market is growing incredibly fast, and with VW’s entry it will grow faster yet.

Tesla is making almost 200,000 cars this year, next year it will be more like 350,000. And when VW is ready to produce 200,000 EVs, Tesla will likely be making 500,000/year. And both companies will sell everyone they can make.

 

The Supercharger network is a major advantage too.

 

oh that's nothing. have you seen vdubs planned buildout?

 

At this time?
That's kind of my point. Tesla has had the advantage of not really having direct or real competition. They could grow and build the company, and produce the vehicles, without any real competition.

But as I said, I think the potential challenge for Tesla, is that major automobile manufacturers CAN get into the game, pretty quickly if they wish.
I agree that there is little competition right now. But that could change very quickly.
I respect Tesla for pioneering creation, and revealing the comprehensible reality of electric vehicles, that have both advantage, in being electric, but also little compromise in overall performance. Must of been hard for a lot of people at Motor Trend to vote the Tesla Model S as the 2013 car of the year. But they did.

I'm not really talking about now, or yesterday. I'm talking about potential future challenges. And my opinion is, IF...big IF...major automobile manufacturers such as VW, or Toyota, or GM, decide to build "Tesla" like automobiles? That could be a big challenge to Tesla.

I really respect what Tesla has created. BUT there is really no magic. There is nothing that couldn't be reversed engineered, or created on a mass produced scale, cheaper, and in greater quantities than Tesla can currently produce, by any major automobile manufacturer.

I agree it's not happening today. But if it ever does happen? It's something Tesla needs to worry about.

 

why do you suppose no one is interested in taking them to task?

 

Actually, they can't do it quickly. Hyundai/Kia was not prepared for the popularity of their hybrids/plug ins. They had a battery shortage that couldn't be remedied as quickly as lifting the phone. The Ioniq Electric was suppose to be nationwide available here, but hasn't left the West Coast.

Before that, Mitsubishi kept delaying the Outlander PHEV intro to North America for years, because they couldn't keep up with demand.

Even earlier, the level of Aisin transaxle supply limited the Ford Escape hybrid.

Cars are big things that contain a large number of parts and materials. When and if an established car company gets serious about challenging Tesla, there will be a lag of years between them starting and producing BEVs in Tesla numbers. It already takes years to get an ICE car design from concept to market, and the supply chains already exist for all the required parts.

Nissan/Renault is the only international company with the required investment already into BEVs. Toyota's investment is into NiMH, which isn't competitive with Li-ion for large packs. For some companies, buying Tesla would be the fastest way to put out a Tesla competitor.