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Impending Record U.S. Crude Oil Production

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by iplug, Jan 29, 2018.

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  1. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Would like to see the U.S. as a net producer of oil not so much due to the supply side but the demand side.

    Hoping the continued growth of plug-ins will help achieve this in the next 2-5 years. If plug-ins grow fast enough, they will outpace the eventual oil production fall.

    At current declining net import rates (using a tend line over the last two years), the U.S. touches net zero for the first time in 2020. Climbing gasoline prices could make this happen months sooner, lower a bit longer, etc.
     
    #81 iplug, Oct 11, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
  2. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Most recent EIA data just released today (week ending 11/02); U.S. Field Crude Oil Production jumped to a new record 11.6 million barrels/day:

    11/02: 11.6 million barrels/day
    10/26: 11.2 million barrels/day
    10/19: 10.9million barrels/day
    10/12: 10.9 million barrels/day
    10/05: 11.2 million barrels/day
    09/28: 11.1 million barrels/day
    09/21: 11.1 million barrels/day
    09/14: 11.0 million barrels/day
    09/07: 10.9 million barrels/day
     
    #82 iplug, Nov 7, 2018
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    good election, markets up, people are feeling flush:rolleyes:
     
    #83 bisco, Nov 7, 2018
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Crude oil price has fallen about 13% since late September.
     
    #84 tochatihu, Nov 7, 2018
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    but gasoline is up, no? pretty flat around here though
     
    #85 bisco, Nov 7, 2018
  6. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Equities (stock) markets reacted positively today, but this oil data predates that. The new record is for data only to week ending 11/2/2018.
     
    #86 iplug, Nov 7, 2018
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  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    oops:oops:
     
    #87 bisco, Nov 7, 2018
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I'm impressed that EIA data is as current as it is. Seems like they'd need to be plugged in to many data sources to compile this.
     
    #88 tochatihu, Nov 7, 2018
  9. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Data junkies get their quick fix.

    Some folks...would say the type that concentrate a bit in places like PriusChat...appreciate (timely - or any) publicly funded research, granular data in sectors such as energy, environment, economy...
     
    #89 iplug, Nov 7, 2018
  10. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Still going up despite oil prices falling last few weeks. EIA data updated today and another record for U.S. Field Crude Oil Production:

    11/09: 11.7 million barrels/day
    11/02: 11.6 million barrels/day
    10/26: 11.2 million barrels/day
    10/19: 10.9million barrels/day
    10/12: 10.9 million barrels/day
    10/05: 11.2 million barrels/day
    09/28: 11.1 million barrels/day
    09/21: 11.1 million barrels/day
    09/14: 11.0 million barrels/day
    09/07: 10.9 million barrels/day


    Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil climbed by 8 to 869 this week. That was the largest weekly rise since the week ended Aug. 10. The oil-rig count had posted declines in each of the past three weeks. The total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, was also up by 11 at 1,063, according to Baker Hughes

    Baker Hughes data show U.S. oil-rig count up for first time in 4 weeks - MarketWatch
     
    #90 iplug, Nov 15, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2018
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    #91 Trollbait, Nov 16, 2018
  12. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Yeah, the economics here are hard to accurately pin down. Maybe the breakeven point of some shale plays is <<$50/barrel so pumping in spite of significant pipeline constraints? Apparently when oil prices tanked last time lessons were learned about over-extending.
     
    #92 iplug, Nov 17, 2018
  13. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Power politics?
    I wonder if the USA production strength is leading to less enthusiasm to bring Candian crude down to compete with us? Also Saudi Arbaia is pissed that Trump gave Iran a break and so they want to cut back exports to USA to fight back.
     
    #93 wjtracy, Nov 17, 2018
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Obviously, no one would see a current opportunity to top off the SPR.

    I mean, obviously.
     
    #94 tochatihu, Nov 17, 2018
    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller likes this.
  15. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Gasoline prices recently dipped, but the U.S. is still on track for net exportation of crude oil as of most recent data.

    Newest monthly data released today is a tad old (not reflecting recent drop in gas prices), but a record low net imports of only 2,273 thousands of barrels per day of crude as of September 2018. In a couple months we should see how lower gas prices now are affecting this trend.

    U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Thousand Barrels per Day)
     
    #95 iplug, Nov 30, 2018
  16. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    U.S. oil production holding near the peak for the moment. Will be hard to keep up. Facing strong headwinds with continued decline in oil prices. WTI crude at $47/bbl at the moment.

    12/14: 11.6 million barrels/day
    12/07: 11.6 million barrels/day
    11/09-11/30: 11.7 million barrels/day
    11/02: 11.6 million barrels/day
    10/26: 11.2 million barrels/day
    10/19: 10.9million barrels/day
    10/12: 10.9 million barrels/day
     
    #96 iplug, Dec 19, 2018
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    higher interest rates ain't gonna help (y)
     
    #97 bisco, Dec 19, 2018
  18. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Some oil fracking magic working behind the scenes.

    We have a new record for U.S. oil production, 12.0 million barrels per day. Not sure how they keep pushing through the headwinds:

    02/15: 12.0 million barrels/day
    01/11-02/08: 11.9 million barrels/day
    12/21-01/4: 11.7 million barrels/day
    12/14: 11.6 million barrels/day
    12/07: 11.6 million barrels/day
    11/09-11/30: 11.7 million barrels/day
    11/02: 11.6 million barrels/day
    10/26: 11.2 million barrels/day
    10/19: 10.9 million barrels/day
     
    #98 iplug, Feb 21, 2019
  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I'm not sure why they bother with transport and refinery bottlenecks.
     
    #99 Trollbait, Feb 21, 2019
  20. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    #100 iplug, May 25, 2019
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