2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Pacific hurricane Lane has been difficult for model track prediction. I point readers to

Lane Products

Showing what I call the wind snake. Dark central color breaks things. Light outer color blows leaves off trees and tosses about lawn furniture and other items you've not secured.

Even now there is disagreement among (forward) models whether dark color can touch Oahu and Kauai, but with most saying no. In terms of wind energy, Lane will probably hurt less than 1992 Iniki. Rain, river-channel flooding and storm surge are not considered here.

Our goal for Lane is to come in under $5 billion damage and 6 dead from Iniki. Optimistic for now.

 

Atlantic: Florence seems likely to miss everything you are interested in, and be too weak where it does not miss. Not-yet-numbered, maybe tropical 7, will rain about 3 inches in SE Florida. After that, maybe do more.

In other words, for September, this is a sleepy north Atlantic. Folks who speak authoritatively on such subjects have not presented strong post hoc statements. Perhaps because we are not quite post hoc yet.

Pacific: Typhoon Jebi in 2 days will be messing with Honshu Island, Japan. Japan has had several typhoons already this year. But here's the thing: I look at CNN's Asia page and see no mention of Jebi. Seems odd to me. Is there a different US mainstream news source covering it?

 

Thank you. Bloomberg is blocked in this Asian country. Newsweek is just as you said. 'Weather' sites could scarcely avoid it so I set them aside. WaPo may have, with digging required, but that makes it non productive according to my thesis.

Not mentioned by B, Foxnews misses also.

Seems I need to move Newsweek above CNN. I make a daily sweep, and no one should be interested in what others are blocked here.

 

Sure. TS Gordon was #7. now having rained on S. Florida, it moves across GOM to Biloxi/Nawleans area. Can turn warm surface water into rain, but maybe cannot make big winds.

What does "qualify" mean? I watch vorticity across the Atlantic for youse guys. Boredom of 2018 comes at a helpful time.

 

Hurricane models are very scattered by when Florence gets past 65 oW. Meaning that interaction with US E coast later is difficult to rule out. Historically, however, very few storms have gone from Florence' current position to that coast.

Both the pre-pre-hurricanes behind Florence will churn waters at least.

 

Japan is checking many boxes this year with typhoons, other flooding, and earthquakes.

 

Eeeew... kneeling in squishy mud.

 

Some explanation for Florence's not recurving is here:

Earther link

Image about 1/3 way down page indicates priors never got to east coast from Florence's position. This would be a new thing.

 

Yesterday, tracking models for Florence as shown here:

Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Forecasts

were pretty tight. Now they are diverging more.

 

Meanwhile, Olivia in Pacific will do Hawaii another disfavor this week. Apparently mostly with water not wind.