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2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Apr 5, 2018.

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  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    us too, felt like a 2 week tropical storm. 72 and sunny today, finally opened the doors and windows. it was like coming out of the bomb shelter.:cool:
     
    #21 bisco, Aug 19, 2018
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Central Pacific Hurricane Lane might not miss Hawaii.
     
    #22 tochatihu, Aug 20, 2018
  3. bisco

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    #23 bisco, Aug 20, 2018
  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    We could use some hurricane remnants (cold northeastern Pacific waters chill them down to mere storms or depressions before reaching our region) over here on the west coast to help suppress the wildfires, wash some of the smoke out of the air and blow the rest of it away.

    All my local air monitor sites have worsen from this morning's red (Unhealthy) to purple (Very Unhealthy) this afternoon, with PM2.5 scores in the 200+ range. Not nearly as bad as the 600+ and 700+ reading displayed on a couple Eastern Washington sites yesterday, but more than enough to cause wheezing as my lungs struggle to get over a cold picked up earlier this month.
     
    #24 fuzzy1, Aug 20, 2018
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Sea surface T in E Pacific are not particularly high now. Yer hot water is in NW Pacific, and 2 hurricanes currently there would be challenged to cool that down.

    2018 US fire season remains severe, but in about 4th place among recent years based on most recent look at NIFC. I suppose it is far from over.
     
    #25 tochatihu, Aug 20, 2018
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #26 tochatihu, Aug 20, 2018
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #27 tochatihu, Aug 20, 2018
  8. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    fuzzy1 said: ↑
    ... All my local air monitor sites have worsen from this morning's red (Unhealthy) to purple (Very Unhealthy) this afternoon, with PM2.5 scores in the 200+ range. ...

    Correction, the site with solid purple marks is using a different index, WAQA, whatever that is. PM2.5 here now is about 150 (red, merely Unhealthy), and all the area monitors are just red, not purple.


    tochatihu said: ↑
    2018 US fire season remains severe, but in about 4th place among recent years based on most recent look at NIFC. I suppose it is far from over.

    A Cliff Mass weather blog pointed out that these smoke conditions used to be common in the era before Smokey Bear became the wildfire suppression mascot in the 1940s. NIFC shows annual statistics with much higher burn acreages shown in that era than in modern times:
    NIFC: Total Wildland Fires and Acres (1926-2017)


    tochatihu said: ↑
    Is it common for people there to use N95 face masks against smoke and ash?
    Not normally, but I haven't been out today. Local news did show a bunch of folks wearing masks today.


    tochatihu said: ↑
    Is this a good choice for air quality maps?
    Wildfire smoke, air quality, and Red Flag Warnings August 20, 2018 - Wildfire Today

    First and third maps are new to me. Second map comes from here (with State selection as Washington), which is also much more current:
    AIRNow - State Not Found

    This site shows both air monitors and wildfire locations, not just in the U.S., but Canada and Mexico and the Caribbean too:
    Washington Smoke Information

    Washington Dept of Ecology, less coverage area:
    https://frtress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/
     
    #28 fuzzy1, Aug 20, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2018
  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    #29 fuzzy1, Aug 20, 2018
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    More appropriately for a wildfire thread, US forest burning used to be much more. 1910 was notorious not least because of Pulaski's crew. 1910 to 1940 decades grew fire suppression, which worked except when they didn't.

    Starting decades earlier, a lot more wood was extracted. Standing forests became younger (this was not time travel) and with smaller plants; in years they were dry, allowing small ignitions to go big.

    Now, with more-extensive insect-killed trees standing, they can promote burning. More folks living in the interface also increases perceived fire costs.

    ==
    Wrong in the extreme to view forest fire as at all a new thing. Studies of soil charcoal show that essentially all forests will burn when weather/climate goes wrong. N. Amer. has had epic megadroughts and megafires, way back when.

    Interestingly we cannot know if current insect-tree mortality is climate-novel because prior evidence has been burned away. We aspire (oddly enough) towards minimal human risk while climate is generally hot&dry and humans intrude. It is an expensive hobby and at times obviously unsuccessful.

    ==
    With more lungs in smoky places, and aspiring to live for ~80 years, historically unexceptional fires present more externalities than they would have, 500, 1000, 5000 years ago.
     
    #30 tochatihu, Aug 20, 2018
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Center of model tracks for hurricane Lane looks bad for Oahu and Kauai.
     
    #31 tochatihu, Aug 21, 2018
  12. bisco

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    trouble in paradise...
     
    #32 bisco, Aug 21, 2018
  13. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    After some exercise-induced wheezing during yardwork yesterday, I dug up an old N95 dust mask from previous home projects. Combined with an old asthma inhaler, it helped. My problem is likely amplified by a pre-existing respiratory irritation, from a cold picked up at the start of this month. Each time it makes progress subsiding, a new assault (flight home from Europe, wildfire smoke at home, greatly increased smoke over the weekend) helps revive or extend it.

    Getting out today for an easy (flat, slow, and short) bike ride, I saw only a single pedestrian-shopper wearing a mask, and it was not N95 level. Much less than 1% of people encountered.

    But while riding, I encountered four other exercisers (bikers, runner, truck delivery driver) wearing masks, all being N95-type (or better -- same style valve as mine). The bike trail traffic was exceptionally light, so this was probably 15% of traffic.
     
    #33 fuzzy1, Aug 21, 2018
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Current models for Lane show even greater recurvature. Any more of that and eyewall might even touch 'The Big Island'.

    Will lose strength during successive land encounters, but perhaps still possible for rain/flood/landslide damage beyond that from softened wind.

    Here there shall be no discussion of political problems of bringing FEMA help to a remote island.
     
    #34 tochatihu, Aug 21, 2018
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    obama will sea to that.
     
    #35 bisco, Aug 21, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2018
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    There is a risk that we shall be too engrossed with current politicals, to make important preparations in Hawaii,
     
    #36 tochatihu, Aug 21, 2018
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    see post #23, keep your eye on the ball
     
    #37 bisco, Aug 21, 2018
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    May have mentioned

    http://www.windy.com

    before. Worth a look. I wonder if those are 'quickscat' winds or derived in some other way?
     
    #38 tochatihu, Aug 21, 2018
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    my patio umbrella blew over yesterday.
     
    #39 bisco, Aug 21, 2018
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Thnaks for helping keep this tread from blowing over towards politics o_O
     
    #40 tochatihu, Aug 21, 2018
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