Prime destined to be doa?

As of early July, Tesla had about 423,000 reservations.
You can belittle the people buying Tesla’s, but you are insulting a whole lot of people.

 

Who was among those that didn't believe the possibility of Toyota having ended early production of gen-1 Prius PHV because there was a much better gen-2 already being prepared for production? I remember certain Tesla owners backing the DOA claim based on rhetoric of Toyota abandoning the market. I also remember the reason why... low hanging fruit.

There is very real concern now growing about Tesla overcoming the critical transition from delivering a great vehicle to delivering a sustainable product that generates sufficient profit. It's a difficult challenge for a high-performance vehicle. They tend to stay in the niche category. Less exciting offerings are what business depends upon though.

The disaster playing out with GM right now overwhelmingly confirms that. Design focused on range & power. Favoring aspects of performance sacrificed balance, a critical requirement of mainstream sales. Those drawn the unique offering have already made their purchase. No one else is interested. Most everyone with a Volt were conquests, buyers from other automakers. Loyal GM customers were never drawn to it.

Toyota has carefully studied audience. They understand what their own shoppers will consider for purchase. Impressing the media, enthusiasts, or fanboys is of no concern. That rhetoric will persist regardless of what's delivered anyway. Think about what the other automakers will be up against... competition from every direction.

Watch what happens as the tax-credit phaseouts are triggered. What happened in the past won't matter. That new history in the making will shape the market. Designs with a production cost too high to compete with traditional vehicles directly will face serious decisions. No more will it even make sense to isolate the "EV market" from the rest of what we see on dealer lots.

It's about to get very real. Not every plug-in offering will survive. There will be some losses.

 

I'm impressed as you've written a tight description of what Tesla is going through. Not the same way but in his own way, what Elon is accomplishing. Sad to say, there has been an infestation of skeptics/FUDsters/trolls over at Insideevs. I would like to adopt this as 'bait' to lure them to a 'honeypot'.

Thanks to the FUDsters, I've learned more about the Model 3 than I ever had plans to study. But the 2170, an NCA cell, has neatly stepped over the cobalt shortage impact on NMC. Tesla planned the Federal Tax Credit phase out very carefully that along with NCA means they have a significant technical advantage. There was a good reason to look closely at this thread:
EV efficiency | PriusChat

Understand I'm not ready to trade-in our plug-in hybrids for a long range, Model 3 even though it is the first EV that could meet my requirements. I'm cheap, not nuts.

Fisker for one (no loss!)

Bob Wilson

 

And the 2016 Prius Level 2 ECO did not have TSS-P. Saving a few cents, Toyota sold a used, 2014 BMW i3-REx . . . the price of a 2016 Prius Level 3 with a dang moonroof. Six months later, the 2010 Prius was replaced by a 2017 Prius Prime.

Bob Wilson

 

It's comes down to being able to stand the test of time.

We are now witnessing some approaches that we not been able to... hence the low hanging fruit. Appealing to just a limited audience is a very real problem. Dependency on tax-credits made it even worse.

Consequences of all that will be playing out soon. Watch what happens.

 

i've been watching for quite a few years now. most prognostications have fallen flat. there is a lot more going into ev sales than tax credits.
i wouldn't put my money on any horse in this race, but i'm rooting for all of them.

 

How many of those Model 3 cancellations were replaced by other reservations, and now, direct orders? How many opted to get a Model S or X instead of waiting?

For those wanting a BEV, there is very few choices out there if you need more than 200 miles of range. Available now is the Bolt, which costs about the same as the short range Model 3 when it is produced. The fast DC charging network for it is less built out, and the CCS charge port isn't on the base bolt. The iPace is closer to a Model S in price.

 

• PB & J sandwiches land face down, and bread up.
• A husband will find his wife is mad at him once a day.
• A husband with a mistress will have four women mad at him: wife; wife’s friend; mistress, and; mistress’s friend.

Bob Wilson

 

i can't believe the beating tesla is taking around here lately. i thought most (many) priuschatters were environmental kind of people. but lately, especially from prime owners, there seem to be a lot of wall streeters trying to save money by driving electric. why they want tesla to go down, i haven't figured out yet, unless they are all shorting it.

 

Some wall streeters may just be vocal because they've been wrong so frequently, starting with "tesla will go under" , to "the stock is too high", only for it to go even higher & higher. Say it often enough, and eventually it may be right (they hope). Then you get to say, "see? I told you so ... see how important my opinion is!"
As for hybrid / Prime negativity towards the Tesla brand, I don't know. If anything, especially after Toyota pulled out of building the Prius in the US, one would think hybrid drivers would give Tesla a pat on the back - bringing tens of thousands of jobs to the US, from the main factories, to the subcontractors. It's a mystery.
,

 

you'd think, but no.

 

I suspect many Tesla owners who were former Prius owners moved from PriusChat to Tesla specific forums. Those who kept their Prius as the backup, long range car, are finding with experience that the growing SuperCharger network makes letting the Prius go more practical.

My plug-in hybrid experience says charging overnight or at work is key to getting the best EV return. Those whose parking does not include charging at home or work, are pretty much limited to efficient hybrids or cost-effective, plug-in hybrids . . . or public transportation.

If you want to see anti-Tesla rants, visit the recently opened forum at 'Insideevs'. It instantly attracted anti-Tesla and pro-fuel cell advocates. I suspect These Recalcitrant Ornery Loud Lying (TROLL) who had been banned from other forums. FYI, I joined the forum searching for EVSE information.

Bob Wilson

 

Speaking from the perspective of the "Average Joe", a member of the working poor (before I retired), I still think the Teslas are priced way too high for 80% of the general driving population. Seriously, how many people are able (or willing) to pay $100,000 for a car?

But the Model 3, if they can truly sell that vehicle for $35K (or less), then that's a whole new ball game. That price is comparable to a top of the line Prime? (before rebates) Or a Nissan Leaf? Musk needs to come down out of the clouds, and mass-produce a truly affordable electric vehicle that most all people could buy.

(But then we got the problem of an over-stressed electrical grid in SoCal. I've been through a few rolling black-outs. With all these EV's coming online, the power companies and county/state officials had better come up with a solution. Fast. But they won't. You will soon see hundreds of Teslas stranded all over the city..... I'm sticking with my gas hybrid.)

 

he is trying to do that. it isn't magic, it is hard work and dedication. what clouds do you speak of?

californians have been complaining about the electric supply as far back as i can remember.
from what i see, it hasn't slowed anything down.

from what i see, they're just a whiny lot who don't know how good they have it.

 

The problem is, the battery costs as much as a regular compact car like a Corolla.

One has so little to do with the other that the cars might actually help the problem.

 

Then buy a used Tesla and cut the price by half. For example, Tesla lists used Teslas at a significant discount. The ones coming off lease are especially good buys.

Bob Wilson

 

Model X & S compete with the likes of 6 figure MB's & BMW's & others ... so .... why not also get torqued about OTHER manufacturer's 6 figure brands ..... because the alternative, is to relegate EV's to the already bloated field if mediocre / middle of the road vehicles. There was logic in stealing their lunch 1st - because that class of vehicle has bigger profit margins. Same as the high performance Model 3 - now stealing the lunches of the likes of MB / BMW upper mid priced cars.

that's already the objective.

really? only EV's get stranded? No one runs out gas? so - you mean the gas station's lights & pumps & slurpy machines DON'T get powered by happy thoughts? THEY run on electricity too. Ever think about running your electric gas pump in a brown out? Hmmm!

As for EV's 'causing' brown-outs? .... really? how does one 'blame' EV's for the prior 90 years worth of occasional power failures. Did you know - most homes' central AC can EASILY draw over 3X as much power as a plug-in prius. Why not blame the AC ... after all .... the ev can charge with as little as 1,200 watts - like a hair dryer. (guess we cam blame them too) Central AC is typically 240v & way more multiples if kW's.
On the other hand - Tesla's PV power & battery backup systems are big enough to run slices of Australia to PREVEVT their power outages ... & the same is true with the entire Hawaiian island, Kauai, & other areas. But hey - sure - blame the guy trying to make a difference in the fields of transpirtation & power delivery - not the utility, running primarily on non-renewables.

.

 

i'm sure that people with swamp coolers were blaming people who installed central air for just about everything back in the day.

when we put central air in our cape cottage, my neighbors all blamed me because their wives wanted it too.

 

The total ownership cost of a BEV might equal that of an ICE car this year.