Model 3 current and projected production

I have started a new thread because it is indicative of how data can be presented in a misleading manner, especially to those who are not enamored and fascinated with numbers and statistics.

I have no argument with the data points in @bwilson4web chart above. They are accurate and consistent with public filings. Where I take issue is the manner in which the data are presented. Bob uses, a chart format that is logarithmic. This technique is often useful to truncate chart size for those who are experienced in interpreting logarithmic charts. However, this causes the data to be skewed in a misleading manner especially for those who are not experienced in interpreting these charts. If you look at the blue line in Bob's chart, it appears that production of the model 3 has tapered off and is growing at a declining rate. That is simply no true.

i have created a similar chart that is based on linear geometric display of the data. This gives a more accurate picture of the model 3 production curve. Compare Bob's blue line (called a frown curve) to the blue line on my chart (called a smiley curve). Model 3 production is indeed ramping up and at an accelerating pace. This gives a more accurate depiction of what is happening with model 3 production.

Additionally, I have projected production for a year to June 30, 2019. That is indicated by the dashed red line. I have based my guesstimates on

• Elon's assurances that production will increase to 6000 cars per week by the end of July, 2018
• Elon's prediction that model 3 production will hit 10,000 cars per week sometime in 2019. I arbitrarily picked the mid-point of June 30, 2019
• Elon said earlier this year that the current backlog of ~400K worldwide reservations would be cleared by the end of 2019
• Elon referred to the "S" curve of production - starting relatively slowly for the first year (7/17 - 6/18), then ramping up rapidly in the second year (7/18 - 6/19) and then holding steady in the third year and beyond.
• The black line on my chart is a trend line determined by an esoteric calculus principle called linear regression analysis and it fits nicely with my hypothesis.

My chart attached:

Now you may take issue with my future projection and that is fair because it is based on a "best case" scenario. This scenario supposes that additional production facilities will be added in the US or overseas, that model Y, introduced in 2019, will not cannibalize model 3 sales, and Elon can keep all the balls in the air. But I don't see how you can disagree that current model 3 production is increasing at an increasing rate.

 

Yes, just clearing up some FUD.

 

Your projected number is essentially the same as mine for the end of Q3/18

As I said, your guess is as good as mine, particularly since mine is based on a 'best case' scenario. I believe that Elon will put up more tent structures to increase ultimate production at Fremont to about 500K units a year. I believe that this will happen sometime in 2019. The key to tent structures is that they are relatively inexpensive, quick to install, and with a projected lifespan of 20/25 years.

I agree that Q3/18 and Q4/18 final numbers will be epic in establishing Tesla as an automaker to take seriously by the industry and the public. It bears repeating that Elon really doesn't want to be in the auto business (I think his passion is space exploration), he just wants to show the legacy automakers that BEVs are the FUTURE to environmental sustainability and environmental protection. I hope Toyota gets into the game sooner rather than later. Perhaps they would be interested in purchasing Tesla in the not too distant future.

 

Yesterday, Tuesday, Elon signed a deal with the Chinese government to build an Bev factory in Shanghai. Elon said that China is the biggest market in the world for near term BEV demand. This factory will allow him to sidestep the self-destructive foreign trade policy by the current administration, reduce transportation costs to Asian markets (China, India, and Japan), and provide access to new subcontractors in Asia. He said that manufacturing is expected to start in two years, Elon time (for you naysayers, figure three years).

He went on to say yesterday that he expects to sign a deal for a European BEV factory (probably in Germany) sometime next year.

Now if the legacy automakers jump on the BEV bandwagon in earnest, and build their own supercharger network, we will really see a feeding frenzy!

 

Or accurate.

 

That is like me saying: "I am going to get more exercise in the next three years. Last year, I walked an additional 10 feet which I projected for three years from now." It is misleading and nonsensical.

For example, Toyota has sold 5,300 Mirai in the last 3 years - 2100 in Japan, 2900 in the US, and 200 in Europe. That is a very low bar for an "Environmental Challenge."

 

I was quoting from the Toyota sales statistics in the post you linked. Are you saying your link is misleading?