Toyota Owners Jump Ship to Tesla

Excellent post, and the part about the teenagers is spot on and pretty funny! However, I'm not sure if I agree with the paradigm shift as part of the problem. Strangely, I think Tesla has got a really good handle on the electric drivetrain as their cars have good power, long range, and the batteries don't degrade much if at all. So they have done a fantastic job where you would expect them to have problems due to innovation. Also the super charger network has been very successful. About the only problem on the electrification side I've heard are occasional glitches with charge cables and charge ports.

What actually seems to be causing problems with Tesla are more "boring" things like paint quality, door handles, touch screens, and all the other things that are part of a conventional car that every other manufacturer (except maybe GM) has had figured out for decades. They really are the know-it-all teenager when it comes to many parts of the car that shouldn't need to be that disruptive and innovative.

And it's not just electrifying the car. They're also trying to make self driving cars, do away with dealerships, over the air updates, and maybe some other things I've missed. Perhaps they're trying to be disruptive and fight a war on too many fronts at the same time?

 

I want one of those lifts. Who makes it?

Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.

 

I was talking more about 90% (I am purely guessing at this number, of course) of car buyers that can not even consider an electric car until they can "fill it up" in 10 minutes anywhere in the country. This is where the big bump on the road to widespread EVs is. Most people will not consider a car they can't refuel in minutes on any corner in any two horse town.

 

if tesla goes oob, exxon will buy the supercharger network and decommission it. 50 years from now, they'll be a special on what might have been.

 

There will be some that insist on that level of public recharging.
According to a poll earlier this year of Americans, 20% say their next car “will be” Electric. I am assuming the percentage of those that would at least consider an electric vehicle would be higher.

I am guessing 50% of car owners have a garage with power. For those, the ability to never need charging away from home except for trips, can be a huge convenience factor. For two car families with a powered garage, it is kind of a no-brained that one of the two be electric.
If you add PHEVs into the calculation, that takes care of just about anyone with charging at home or work.

So yes, I do agree with you, just not with your 90% guess.

 

gas won't always be cheap, it is finite.

 

I think it's higher than 50% because most population resides in the cities. Arguably, those in the cities can use car-as-a-service concept that is now emerging (Uber-like) and with driverless cars it'll only become better. As for people who own a home with a garage and have access to charging at work and have a second non EV car, of course that's a good fit for EV. That is not most people, though.

The problem is that electricity to run the EV is often more expensive than gas and another aspect that we do not take into account is once some sort of magic number of people switch to EVs from gas, the taxes levied on gas will migrate to electricity in order to support the things financed by gas taxes. This will make the cost of running an EV even higher.

We are watching this very interesting thing unfold and there is no telling how it will go.

 

Perhaps, but the cost of electricity will track the cost of gas. This will happen for several reasons. 1. Free market will exact the price for most sources of energy about the same price. 2. Most electricity is generated by burning oil in this country.

 

all that will change in the future as renewable energy increases, and dino decreases.

 

At that point the demand for dino will decrease and the price for it will fall. Hopefully it will fall into disuse at some point, but I am not sure when that will happen.

 

Oil?

 

at that point, it won't be worthwhile for pumpers to keep pumping to supply a dwindling market.
no one knows when, but for now, plug in sales will likely continue to increase.

 

Most people will 'refuel' overnight in their garage or carport, even those living in apartments. Currently you can recharge a Tesla, to some extent, in any two horse town and the picture is getting brighter on a monthly basis.

A study was just concluded that BEVs will be less expensive to purchase than a comparable ICEVs in the next 5 years with batteries that will have 400+ range and recharging in the 15 minute range. Couple that with an increase in cost of gasoline as a result of limited supply and the higher cost to deliver to market and we are just at the verge of the tipping point.

In California, where electric is relatively expensive, the cost of powering a BEV the same distance as a car powered by gasoline is 25% of the cost. The State of California has mandated that 50% of all electricity be powered by renewable energy (wind, sun, geothermal) by 2024. We are ahead of schedule right now with about 35% coming from renewables. The cost of electricity will be going down in California while the price of gasoline will be going up. Other progressive States are now following California's lead.

 

Most population does reside in cities, and most people don't have a home with a garage.
Most car owners don't necessarily live in the cities though, and most car owners do have a garage with power.

Remember, there is a big difference between the rate of the population that can use an EV and the rate of car owners that can.
Even if it is 40% though, it will take some time for the market to reach 40%. And by that time, most apartments and condos with off street parking will have charging capability.

As for electricity prices, they don't track gasoline prices. They are also far more stable than gas prices. And on average in the U.S. they are cheaper than gas.
In your particular case it may not be. In my case, my costs for electricity are pegged at $0.5 cents/kWh for the next 35 years

 

One of the attractions of the Prius is its simplicity, particularly in the drive train. The Ioniq has no such simplicity. The six clutch, side-by-side automatic/manual transmission is a nightmare of complexity. I think that will be the weak point.

 

I call BS on the idea that the cost of power in California will be going down. What rationale is used to formulate such a thought? Both gasoline and electric power are commodities, and if history teaches us anything, the prices of commodities rises over time.

 

A large reason for the sky high prices in CA is that capacity was overbuilt. Legislation made it easy, even incentivized companies to overbuilt capacity.
Now, I don't know that prices will be going down. But IF the state can get its act together, this should be solvable. It is also far better than having too little capacity. That would be an expensive problem.

 

Personal solar power, and that's not BS. PV solar on residential, commercial, and industrial is growing by leaps and bounds in California. I have no electricity bill anymore at my residence (in fact I get a rebate from Edison once a year for over production). The breakeven for me on the installation cost is about 6 years and that number is going down for new installations as a result declining costs of solar panels.

 

If you own a home, but what about the 100's of thousands who live in apartments or live in cities and park in public garages. EV is not for everyone.

 

Gas will be free, if you believe that ICE will be banished from the streets. Maybe the future reads, buy ICE car and get free gas for life of the car.