Featured Tesla needs to Catch up

china is a fragile market.

 

use can handle some abusa.

 

it's very dense in the city.

 

Who cares....titsa needs to make $$$ as opposed to burning ccash

Toyota needs to step it’s ev game as opposed to hydrogen
Mistake on toyota’s part

 

Hydrogen's success requires a huge investment in the infrastructure and car subsidies from the government. Japan is probably the only nation willing and able to pay for it, but affordable hydrogen FCEVs require larger production than what the home market alone needs. That is why Toyota is pushing them in areas where it doesn't have a chance.

Back to the OP. Until recently, Renault wasn't selling the battery for their BEVs, but only leasing it to the car buyer. Without the battery in a car's price, they are cheap, and the battery lease fees were reasonable. Smart has a battery lease option in the US for the ED, and the monthly fee was about the same as filling the ICE model up with premium for a month. So Renault can move many BEVs.

The issue with battery leasing is that it undercuts the car's used value. Many buying used do so in order to avoid a monthly fee.

Then this alliance of established car companies have the resources to make and sell these BEVs with an actual loss. Then their PHEVs are likely being counted as electric vehicles.

Nissan got into BEVs in order to be number one by being first to market. Their cost cutting on battery cooling has lowered their reputation with BEVs in the US. Leafs sold because of their massive deals.

 

How so?

 

We tend to forget fleet users, this is where hydrogen may make some sense. If you have vehicles traveling the same route everyday you can have your own infrastructure in place and not deal with range anxiety. This will work for electric too. City bus systems would be a good candidate, UPS, Fed Ex and semi trucks that do all local delivery. It all comes down to costs when a business is involved. Just think of how much pollution could be eliminated with commercial vehicles.

Nikola One Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Semi-Truck Debuts | Trucks.com

The Nikola semi may be the Tesla of big trucks.

 

I wouldn’t, I would think the largest automaker in the world would be the number 1 EV maker.
I would think the leader in hybrid technology, would be the leader in BEVs.
There is no way I would think a car company that just started building their own cars 6 years ago wouldn’t have a shot at that.

Yet, here we are, with Tesla making the second most EVs in the world compared to companies that have well established businesses with huge production capability and financial warchests.

Pretty amazing.

 

As you say, it comes down to costs, and so far they are better with a BEV. We hear Mercedes will introduce a hydrogen FCEV SUV next year, but their investment in regards to delivery and even short haul trucks are with BEVs. Range anxiety isn't a thing with set routes and the user supplying their own refuel infrastructure.

In the case of long haul shipping, a hybrid ICE will beat a FCEV for some time in costs. Power the ICE with natural gas, which is readily available compared to hydrogen, and you also get greatly reduced emissions. Accounting for driver time limits behind the wheel, the Tesla Semi's 500 mile range is almost enough for long haul uses.

Make an affordable fuel cell that runs on a liquid(at room temp) fuel, and you can have it all.

 

R&D is very expensive as Toyota knows, it took years to make the Prius profitable and I think Toyota as a conservative company.
Look how long it took to put lithium ion batteries in the Prius and they knew the advantages of them and still it took years before them made a real commitment.

 

Tesla seems like they have hit #1 in the large sport sedan market beating Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, and Audi. The model X though has not captured the midsize luxury SUV market.

I used to be good at math, and building an alliance of 3 separate companies does make it hard for an upstart (first US car start up to ipo since Ford) to beat them, especially when it is still ramping up factories. I guess the point of counting the alliance as one instead of 3 companies is so that the number looks bigger.

In April, Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales Nearly Doubled


If we look at the chart, tesla is number 2 this year in plug-ins, but baic and bmw could outpace it if it doesn't get its manufacturing down. June will be a slow month for tesla as it builds inventory and had to work to not go past the 200,000 for max US tax credit. July, October, and December should be blow out months for the model 3 if tesla's manufacturing clears some of the glitches.

I expect byd and baic to grow fast like tesla. Tesla needs to build another assembly plant to grow to the next step and ground hasn't broken for that yet.

 

Source: How to Promote the Hydrogen Economy Hoax | Inside EVS Forum

RECURRING COSTS

• Electrolysis - it costs 2-3 times as much kWh of electricity per mile for a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle over the same kWh put into a battery electric car.
• Steam reformulated methane - the cheapest cost, today it is about about 6-8 times cheaper than electrolysis per kg of hydrogen. It generates CO{2} and is affordable because of today's low cost of methane and burns part of the methane to provide the steam and pressure needed to manufacture it. There is a variant called manufactured gas used in 1890s when gas lights lit the evening streets . . . let's not go there.
• ~$16/kg - the latest reports of retail hydrogen fuel cost to deliver ~64 miles per kg. We have to send observers to the hydrogen stations to get the retail price as it is all but a top secret by hydrogen advocates.

HYDROGEN STORAGE

• Compressed hydrogen tanks - brilliant progress has been made but these are highly stressed parts cycle between extremes. They age and have a built-in life. The pressures are so high that a leak becomes an invisible gas knife.
• Compression energy - current estimates are the compressors use ~13% of the delivered hydrogen energy. These are highly stressed machines that have to be maintained and overhauled.

This is how I see personal transportation options:

• 100% - the baseline cost of ordinary gas and diesel cars are the least efficient.
• ~75% - fuel cell cars although it is hard to measure because of the secretive, retail hydrogen cost.
• ~60% - well designed hybrid cars are nearly twice as efficient as ordinary gas and diesel cars.
• ~25% - a combined hybrid and battery electric car.
• ~20% - a pure battery electric car.
• ~10% - public transportation.
• ~5% - walking and bicycles.

Bob Wilson

 

You're asking why a luxury car isn't selling as well as a mass market car?

Why isn't Maserati kicking Hyundai heine? When will Porsche finally catch up to Suzuki? The question isn't any less crazy with gasser counterparts subbed in.

I've got nothing against Tesla, but they aren't a volume manufacturer nor are they on track to become one. It doesn't seem to be in their published plans anywhere- and there's nothing wrong with that.

When (if) they roll out a basic hatchback in the $15k-20k price range it will be more appropriate to wonder about sales volumes.

 

As my dad always likes saying;

"other than that, how did you like the play, Mister Lincoln ...."

 

Tesla doesn't follow the old way of making and marketing cars. They definately started with a clean sheet of paper. How it works out in the end is anyone's guess. They definately know how to keep everyone's attention.