Featured Morgan Stanley predicts 1B EVs on the road by 2050

By 2050 my dear, frankly, I won't give damn - even if I am still breathing!

By the way, are these expert forecasters the same ones who failed to predict the sub prime crash?

 

"By 2050, there may be one billion electric vehicles on the road worldwide, bringing opportunities—and challenges—for automakers and the supply chain."

The title is a bit misleading but EVs will send ripples (or waves) through the industry as will the increased desire for connectivity. When will the CD player appear on the List of the Obsolete?

The suppliers that aren't planning will disappear. Everything that is sold or licensed by Apple, Google, Intel, and AMD replaced things sold by someone else. Smaller engines or no engine translates into less steel offset by more demand for other industrial metals like copper.

I'm no fan of Adam Jonas (Tesla's fanboy) or MS (underwriters of Tesla secondaries) but change happens. Intel just hit a new high. How many of us expected that?

 

Once the Honda Cub is properly replicated in electric format, that number won't be hard to hit.

They've shown a concept, but no production yet. It's apparently expected any day now. I think these will accelerate the electrification of transport more than any other vehicle in the world.

 

I suspect the rats are prepared to jump back on-board ship, if the this BBC report is true. She'll have already acquired one EV Charging corporation!


I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

BP buys UK's largest car charging firm Chargemaster - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44640647

@Tideland Prius please relocate if this is not the correct thread. Thanks.

 

Post 4 has a good point (Cub = Vespa = Scooter) and may be a major item Morgan's guestimate.
2050 is about 32 years from now.
Current USA population about 320 million.

I don't know if Morgan is accurate and ask what is the current world population?
Then what is the current vehicle ownership (& I guess new cars in inventory vs. just registered vehicles) to attain an average vehicle count per person (Even just using USA as that data may be easier to find).

Then we have current generation not attaining driving licenses, overall desire to move to driverless car, non registered bicycles, etc perhaps reducing the # cars per person's current statistic.

In the analysis I would question results of 1 car per person, 1 car for every 3 I could believe for the Americas, Euro Asia. Not so sure when you compile the other continents. I am curious of the math result my fellow co-member attain.

Have fun with this topic, I did.

 

I went at it the other way. We're building around 90 million cars per year globally. With only 32 years to their mark, I reasoned that they absolutely must be counting non-car vehicles which could be electrified.

I can see why Honda has been taking their time to get the EV-Cub right. It stands to become the most popular EV on earth. Even if it doesn't earn that distinction, its features and capabilities will strongly inform the bike that does take that title.

 

Yes, but what does Criswell predict?

 

the number will be easier to hit them the Honda Route. In fact the cheaper route is already pissing many people off in some areas.

.

 

Somebody is going to call it progress, and somebody else is going to be offended that it isn't their own style or brand of progress.

The transport mode itself looks legit to me. Cheap, relatively clean way to travel urban distances at greater than pedestrian speeds. I'm disappointed that the companies pushing them are already sloppy with regulatory evasion.

Perhaps the city can respond with a tax on the business model? That way there's no real danger to the technological progress, but enough of a sting to the individual businesses pushing this particular iteration to serve as a deterrent.

 

looks like the old farts vs the young bucks. time to move on...