Toyota Owners Jump Ship to Tesla

Okay, so let's ignore the sensationalism of the articles and just focus on the fact that Tesla is building cars in a temporary structure. Weren't they supposed to be able to reach 10K cars/week using the existing assembly lines? Now they need an extra line to reach 5K cars/week? It just sounds like more fixed cost to produce at a lower rate than the original business case was based on.

 

semi-temporary structure

sounds like those types of structures can last 25+ years

I don't remember them ever specifying exactly how many lines it would take to get to 10k/wk.

 

No, they never stated they could reach 10k/week on the existing lines.
What they did state is that they “believe” they could reach 10k/week in the Fremont factory.

 

The Bloomberg interview is with Max Warburton, a well documented Tesla hater. He has done a lot of hit pieces on Tesla and has been consistently wrong. In fact, part of the Space X program is being built in similar tents with "scrap." We all know how badly that program is going. This is a well proven technology that has been around for years.

 

No, Elon said 10K/week at the Fremont plant at some unspecified time in the future. What he did say is that he was projecting a build of 5K/week by the end of 2017. He missed that projection by 6 months. I suppose you can burn him at the stake for such egregious optimism but in auto manufacturing, that is typical. How far behind is Toyota in producing their BEV Tesla killer?

 

To be fair, Toyota never stated they would build a BEV Tesla Killer. According to them, I believe the quote was, "no one is knocking on our door asking for a BEV".
Of course, that is because they all went next door to knock on Tesla's door

 

It is being stated that this tent structure has no air conditioning. How does he expect people to build cars in the middle of a California summer?!

 

You would think Tesla would have a door bell!

 

Yes I'm well aware of who the interview was with. Personally, I'm not even trying to imply it is necessarily a bad thing. However, you have to admit that the tent does leave the door wide open for certain....comparisons ( P.T. Barnum, etc... ). In fact, I've heard the P.T. Barnum one a few times already. But any media coverage is 'good' coverage..eh?

 

Typically, automotive production lines aren't air conditioned. Sensitive electronic parts are manufactured in air conditioned facilities..

The Prius production line in Toyota City is not air conditioned, but you knew that, didn't you?

 

I don't mean to burn Elon at the stake, just point out his habit of reducing the goal each time it is missed only to miss it again.

As for a 6 month delay being typical, no, not really. Ford switched the F-150 from steel to aluminum and that transition all happened on schedule. Typically, if there's a major interruption of production at a major manufacturer, it's because of a union strike.

 

If you do not mean to burn him at the stake, why do you use incorrect information to make it look worse than it is?

You are quite correct that Elon makes extremely aggressive goals, and quite often misses the time aspect.
He made very aggressive goals for the Model S. He missed the time aspect, but did deliver on the goals. As Tesla hit those goals, he adjusted and made the goals bigger yet. Same thing happened with the X.
Now with the 3, he hit one of the early goals, exceeded one, missed others and is working on getting up to speed as soon as he can. As time passes, adjustments to the short term goals are adjusted, although the benchmarks have still remained at the same levels (5k & 10k).

Switching an existing product from steel, to some aluminum was simple compared to growing your production capability 500% at the same time as introducing a brand new model vehicle that shares almost nothing with your other models.

 

Per this link, "The original plan was for production to increase incrementally toward a goal of producing 20,000 units per month in December 2017", which is about 5,000 per week. The goal for Q1 was 2500 by the end of March, and that was missed at just over 2000. My information is correct, if about a quarter behind the current time. In a couple weeks we'll find out how Tesla did on their current 5000/week goal. My guess, for the sake of discussion, is that they will miss the goal having made 3000-4000 units this week.

Comparing the Model 3 to an F-150 is a bit of apples and oranges comparison, but it shows where Tesla is relative to an established manufacturer. Perhaps if Tesla made some parts common between their models it would make production easier? Not to mention stocking spares, training service staff, etc.

 

I never been to Toyota City so I would not know this, have you been there? I find it hard to believe that these facilities are not cooled in some type of method. Tesla is in a desert, it's gotta be freaking hot inside a tent! Even the circus tents are air cooled!

 

Google is your friend.

The San Francisco Bay area is in a desert? @orenji, take a deep breath and let's have a sensible conversation.

Okay, have it your way, Fremont is in a desert. Then why doesn't Toyota air condition the service bays at their stealership in Fremont? My Prius is at the stealership in the Inland Empire today (more on that later) with the temperature at 97F. I assure you there is no air conditioning or even fans in the service bays. Toyota treats their employees worse than circus animals!

 

No, they didn't say that and that's my point. Toyota vacillates while Tesla eats into their sedan market (see the title of this thread). Toyota fiddles while Rome burns. I want Toyota to jump into the BEV market with both feet. Some in this thread believe that a 300 mile range BEV can be produced and sold for $20K. GREAT!, that's what I would like to see. Some posters believe that there is a big market for that car, and I agree, why doesn't Toyota build it? Hence, my contention that Toyota is at least 6 years behind schedule while their bottom line is being hurt by decreasing sales.

 

Have you looked at Toyota's financial results lately? Revenue and profits are through the roof!

 

No, what I was referring to was you stating Tesla would be at full run rate on the two lines.

Tesla obviously is tiny in terms of production capacity. The X and S share some parts. The 3 was designed and engineered from the ground up to be reliable, less expensive, quick to build and easy to repair. This requires many new parts as the old ones were more complicated and expensive.
Stocking spares, I absolutely agree with you. I am hoping we will see more readily available spare parts from Tesla.
Training? Tesla has some of the best trained staff in the auto industry.
Go to 4 Chevy dealerships with a broken Bolt and ask them to service it

 

Have you looked at Toyota sales in the US recently?

 

I just did. Slight drop overall from May 17 to May 18 but Tacoma sales up 21.1 percent, best ever May for Toyota and Lexus light trucks. Not much crowing about the Tundra, so that's probably not up as much as it should be given the popularity of full sized trucks right now. They really need to improve the Tundra to steal more sales from Ford.