Tesla is about to release the beast.

Tesla is a troubled company. That's a fact.

 

makes sense, i wonder how many extra full credits they can garner.

 

Depends how you look at it.
If Tesla delivered their 200,000th car the 4th week of June, the full rebates would end October 1st.
If they deliver that 200,000th car in July all cars delivered until Jan 1st get the full credit.
So the extra full credits will be however many cars they can deliver in the US in the 4th quarter.
I would guess that is around 100,000 cars.

 

The fundamentals just aren't there. They are relying on federal credits, investor funding (speculation) and prepayments to fund current production. There is no cash flow without these inputs. The company will eventually collapse, because there is virtually no way they can achieve self sustaining profitability. No comment on the technology, the sales and service infrastructure, or the quality and reliability of the cars, which are also potential issues.

 

There are always naysayers for anyone/anything.

Jim Chanos: Tesla investors are 'paying money to lose money'
Tesla Looked Like the Future. Now Some Ask if It Has One. - The New York Times


There are also leaks of information that indicate issues to cause concerns.

Elon Musk says Model 3 production still needs 'radical improvements' to meet aggressive targets (TSLA)
Tesla stock falls after Bernstein issues cautious note on services margins, automotive gross margins - MarketWatch
Tesla factory becomes literal dumpster fire after recycling machinery goes up in flames


Musk/Tesla is definitely under the magnifying glass these days.

 

It's not about whether Tesla will succeed or survive. It's about the fundamentals of economics. I have experience in this realm. I was there, and involved when infospace.com, webvan.com, pets.com and a host of others disappeared overnight. Each and every one of those companies suffered from the same fundamental issues that Tesla faces. Tesla is a troubled company. And it is a drop in the bucket among auto manufacturers. We don't have long for the end of Q3/18.

 

Tesla’s Solar Plans Aren’t Working

 

i don't trust the motley fool, they are always hyping on yahoo with headline clickbait.

 

I have no investment interest in Tesla, short or long. See you in October.

 

i suspect tesla is now too big to fail.

 

Like Enron? LOL. I once worked with a firm that was gobbled up by Enron called NEPCO, which is now owned by Zurn. Enron and the other bubble-bust firms went down nearly overnight. My company was doing electrical design for Webvan.com. Lot's of money left on (under) the table overnight in that deal ... Good times!

Just remember, "When EF Hutton talks, people listen." They were too big to fail, as well.

 

I look at Elon Musk as a modern day Henry Ford leading us out of the dark ages.

Well it's electric, maybe Thomas Edison.

 

Henry Ford did not have the threat of major automotive powerhouses with unlimited funds to go up against. Tesla does. 2019 will be the start of car wars between Europeans and Japanese against Tesla.

 

I understand that TSLA is a religion to The Faithful and The Fanboys and that there is little point to posting the link to Tesla's latest Form 10-Q.

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

Current assets $6.3 billion
Current liabilities $8.6 billion
Accumulated deficit $5.0 billion (This is where profitable companies would report Retained Earnings)

cash flow from operations -$398 million

Elon said Tesla will be cash flow and net income positive for Q3 and Q4 2018. We'll see. If so the record for profitable quarters in a row will be set at 2 and the total number of profitable quarters will (dare I say it?) climb exponentially to 4. (The exponent is 2.)

All of this without a capital raise. I don't see how Deepak will be able to pull it off.

Those who want Tesla to survive will have to dig deep and snap up this year's secondary (new shares and/or bonds). The first $5 billion covers prior losses. Anything raised beyond that can go toward future projects.

My estimates for what they are worth:

Model S & Model X production is capped at 100,000 units and sales are lower than that. (Elon's own words. Read or listen to the earnings calls.)

Tesla can't get more than 5000 Model 3 out of their assembly line per week and aren't even close to that now. (Again, Elon's own words from earnings calls.) And probably still won't be close to it at the end of this December.

Automotive demand will plummet when the FIT credit is cut and then eliminated.

Reservations will evaporate. The number is commingled in Customer Deposits so without access to Tesla's accounting system there is no way to know how many paid reservations and deposits are on the books. Has cash been refunded and the reservation kept on the books?

I believe Deepak & Elon can still pull off the 2018 secondary but it will be at a very high cost. I don't see them getting through 2019 without a trip to Bankruptcy Court and a reorg. If they were smart they would reorg as a religion with the charitable mission to provide EVs to The Masses below cost.

TSLA is a bomb with a lit fuse. When it goes off the shock wave will run through half of the investing community much like the announcement of Trump's electoral victory ran through the Democrats.