Toyota Owners Jump Ship to Tesla

I'm going to let you drive my model 3 - hard! And then you too will be wearing that Tesla grin!

 

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You look like a future model 3 owner to me. (If it ain't broke, don't fix it.)

I have a question, wouldn't a model 3 with 310+ mile BEV range priced at $49K be a better choice than a BMW I3 REx with 80 miles BEV range priced at $50K with no supercharger network? (Bought used, end-of-lease, for $29k. Today, replacement would be in the $20-23k range. The REx is my mobile super duper charger: 5 min refuel of 2.1-2.3 gallons and on the road again.) I realize that you apparently purchased a used I3 in 2016 before any model 3s were available, but the model 3 does seem to be a compelling choice when it becomes time to replace the I3. (If there were fast DC charging at Fort Smith AR, maybe. Sad to say, neither Tesla nor VW seem to have any plans for one.)​

Mom lives 700 miles away in Coffeyville KS so being able to get there quickly and affordably is a requirement. Recharging to 80% of 310 miles would be ~250 miles, the typical cross country range after a fast charge. Both the BMW i3-REx and Prius Prime have enough cross country capability to make the trip. But there is a 274 mile gap between Little Rock AR and Tulsa OK. If I divert 211 miles to Rogers AR, I can drive 130 miles to Coffeyville KS.

Bob Wilson

 

And which one do you think would be the priority?

 

High CO2 levels didn't kill the planet, but they were a precurser to the largest extinction events seen on this planet; known as the Great Dying. Actually, it wasn't just the high levels, but the high rate of change that was the killer. Many life forms couldn't adapt fast enough.

CO2 levels today are increasing at a similar rate.

I posted an article about Ford and Mercedes ending their FCEV partnership in the news section. Ford starts their rollout of 40 electric vehicles, including 16 BEVs, next year. Mercedes comment on the ending is that they are focusing on battery electrics.

Honda and GM's partnership is still ongoing. It exists, like the ending Ford and Mercedes one, because the cost of continued development to expected pay off is simply too high. This partnership is the group with the most experience on FCEVs.

Nissan's FCEV doesn't use hydrogen, but ethanol. Liquid fueled fuel cells are the only feasible future for FCEVs. Hydrogen is too costly by several metrics. Then the car companies really pushing hydrogen want the tax payer, that's you and I, to pay for the majority of the hydrogen infrastructure so that they can sell cars equal to ICE models for higher cost.

Even when others bring out BEVs, Tesla will still be selling, despite their flaws, because they went out and built, and still building, a fast charge network to make BEVs viable for people.

It is just 37 stations in California today. At the beginning of this latest hydrogen push, the projections used then should have that number at over a 100. Turns out building them costs a lot more than the supporters thought. And the majority of the hydrogen is coming from fossil fuels for lower costs.

 

The retail hydrogen cost is ~$16/kg which gives just under 70 miles.

Bob Wilson

 

Every year, it's just a couple of years. Show me the money. In the meantime, keep rooting for all the alternatives as your Tesla hate seethes.

 

I'll have to recheck that last claim, but (one) working theory is asteroid incursion and subsequent atmospheric "smothering" that resulted in excess CO2. I question that man's activities are analogous to that ELE.

 

The environment is very broken right now. The head in sand approach only makes matters worse.

In about 4 months you will be able to order a model 3 with 220 miles range for $27,500 ($35K -7500 tax credit)

How many times do you have to stop for gasoline on the 700 mile trip to Mom's house? On a daily basis, I don't have to stop for 5 min for gasoline or electricity anywhere anytime. I just plug in at home and my car is full of fuel when I wake up in the morning!

Tesla doesn't need a supercharger in Fort Smith because they have that area covered by Little Rock and Catoosa. Perhaps in the future.

I have a very good LIBRUL friend that grew up in Coffeyville and still owns a ranch there. Let's call her Beth, well that is her name! Both my parents were from northeastern Kansas.

Okay, I'm glad you brought up a real world itinerary. Let's work through this:

Tesla has an onboard computer that will plan and route your proposed itinerary using the available Supercharger network. It will tell you how far to the next SC, how much you need to charge at that SC (to make it to the next one), and when to slow down if you run into inclement weather that could affect your range. The driver sets the parameters such as speed, waypoints, and minimum charge percentage.

However, there are third party applications that you can use to pre-plan your trip if you like - for instance ABetterRoutePlanner.
I have entered your itinerary into ABRP for this theoretical trip. I presumed that you travel the posted speed limit, you want to travel on the shortest route, and your minimum charge is 10%.

Here are the results: The total mileage is 703 miles including turning off the highway to the SC location. Total time of the trip is 17 hours, 45 minutes, including charging time. Total cost of electricity at the SC is $8.05. You will make 3 stops to recharge (Memphis, Little Rock, and Catoosa) for a total combined charge time of 44 minutes. But you will probably spend an overnight in Little Rock (halfway), so you can subtract out 35 minutes of charge time there. You will also be making lunch stops and comfort stops along the way and SCs are located adjacent to restaurants and bathrooms, so no penalty for time spent there. I have no idea what fuel costs in AL, AR, and OK but I know it is cheap but certainly more than the $8.05 for electricity. I know if I made that trip in my Prius I would have to refuel twice and spend about 12 to 15 gallons of gas. In California that would cost me around $50.

So in the final analysis, there is very little if any time penalty driving a model 3 as opposed to the I3. You will save money on the cost of "fuel". And you will not be adding hydrocarbons to the atmosphere. It would be a win/win/win for you.

 

I love your passion, but lets not go too far overboard.
If someone does not have an order in now, there is no way they would get their SR Model 3 while the full rebate is in effect.
For those already in line, some certainly will. And many more will get half or quarter the rebate.

Bob is doing a fantastic job with his i3 and Prius. They fit his needs and minimize gas usage.
The last thing any of us fans need to do is to push people into cars with promises that don't hold up (availability of rebates) or meet their needs.

 

Recent evidence is showing that the the CO2 increase 252 million years ago was over a much shorter time period; 2100 to 18,800 years vs, the previous 150k year estimate. The CO2 concentration shot up to over 1000ppm and approached 2000ppm. Under the quickest estimate, that is an increase of about 1ppm per year. CO2 levels increased by 3ppm in 2015 and 2016. Going back to 1990, only two years was the increase 1ppm or less.


The Siberian Traps, a lava field the size of Poland, is the most accepted source for the past CO2 emissions. Though its eruption may have been triggered by an asteroid impact on the opposite side of the globe.

CO2 Levels Continue to Increase at Record Rate - Yale E360
Alarming new study makes today’s climate change more comparable to Earth’s worst mass extinction

 

. . .
In about 4 months you will be able to order a model 3 with 220 miles range for $27,500 ($35K -7500 tax credit) (Both cars are owned, free and clear. Borrowing the purchase price of a new Model 3 puts me and the wife in the hole. However, any credible trip model needs to use 80% of 221 ~= 177 mi.

How many times do you have to stop for gasoline on the 700 mile trip to Mom's house? (Ten times which my wife and her dogs appreciated.) On a daily basis, I don't have to stop for 5 min for gasoline or electricity anywhere anytime. I just plug in at home and my car is full of fuel when I wake up in the morning! (Daily driving, both cars are fully charged in the morning very seldom do I need their gas engines. Since I put the L2, 40A, EVSE online, they are ready to go in +2 hours for the Prime and +5 hours for the BMW. Heck, I have swapped cars on busy days leaving the other on the charger.)

Tesla doesn't need a supercharger in Fort Smith because they have that area covered by Little Rock and Catoosa. Perhaps in the future. (Perhaps but using the proposed Model 3, the 221 first leg, and 177 mi subsequent leg EV range makes it even less practical.)

I have a very good LIBRUL friend that grew up in Coffeyville and still owns a ranch there. Let's call her Beth, well that is her name! Both my parents were from northeastern Kansas. (Mom, Mary Wilson, is the retired nurse and widow of the late Dr. James Wilson. Until recently she had a herd of miniature horses.)

Okay, I'm glad you brought up a real world itinerary. . . .

The total mileage is 703 miles including turning off the highway to the SC location. Total time of the trip is 17 hours, 45 minutes, including charging time. Total cost of electricity at the SC is $8.05. You will make 3 stops to recharge (Memphis, Little Rock, and Catoosa) for a total combined charge time of 44 minutes. Using the proposed 221 first leg and 177 mi subsequent legs:

• 216 mi - Huntsville to Memphis TN
• 137 mi - Memphis to Little Rock AR
• 211 mi - Little Rock to Rogers AR
• 131 mi - Rogers AR to Coffeyville

In order to make the trip, we would have to find at least one or more, NEMA 14-50s (i.e., RV parks) to put a charge on the car. The Little Rock to Rogers is the risky leg but there should be a boat-load of RV parks in that camper's area. But with a SuperCharger or CCS in Fort Smith, problem solved.

But you will probably spend an overnight in Little Rock (halfway), (No) . . . And you will not be adding hydrocarbons to the atmosphere. It would be a win/win/win for you. (Manufacture of the BMW i3-REx and Prius Prime has already paid the 'hydrocarbon' tax. The little used in our infrequent, cross country trips compared to the manufacture cost is a rounding error. Building another car when we still have two perfectly serviceable cars pays another, unnecessary hydrocarbon tax.)​

Understand the charging networks and EVs are improving. Compared to 2016, it is less bad today but far from perfect.

The ideal location for SuperCharger, CCS, or NEMA 14-50 would be at truck stops along the Interstates and divided highways between cities at roughly 50% of the EV range. That way if one charger is broken or in use, there is an option of trying for the next one. So using the 80%, fast charger range of 177 mi., we'd be looking at ~90 miles apart.

I don't need perfection today as either one of our plug-in hybrids can easily make the trip. The BMW does it at 40 MPG and the Prime at 56 MPG. Compared to the ordinary cars on the same roads, we're a friggin' space ship.

Now if we can get some of the gassers and diesel owners into either a plug-in hybrid or BEV, we'll see a real improvement. BTW, I don't toss dirt at the owners of the same Prius or equivalent hybrids we used to drive. I don't like to make perfect be the enemy of good enough.

Bob Wilson

 

Depends what part of the world your looking at. Europeans are very open to Hydrogen as are the Japanese.

 

Solar energy and Hydrogen are the true green answer. Europeans are seeing this.

 

I have no hate for Tesla. As I have said I hope Tesla does well. However, I have no desire to own a Tesla. I leave you and everyone else who thinks Tesla is the answer to the worlds problems to enjoy your toy. It will be interesting to read this thread again in 5 years. I know I would rather be pushing a Porsche then pushing a Tesla in 5 years. The reality is that Tesla has contributed to this revolution, but it also has woken up the car industry powerhouses who have much deeper pockets and legacy/history.

 

Exactly, had Bob put a $1000 reservation 2+ years ago, like I did, he would have had the chance to get a model 3 with 220 miles range for $27,500. He didn't. 2+ years ago he purchased a two year old I3 with about 80 miles EV range for $29K. That was my point.

 

So instead I put 25,000 miles on the BMW of which ~22,000 were EV miles.

Bob Wilson

 

bob, your 3,000 miles of gas might mean the end of the world.

 

Hydrogen infrastructure is expensive in comparison to the other options, but it might have a chance in small regions where the government has deep pockets. Even then, the cars will remain expensive without the volume manufacturer larger markets provides. That's why Toyota was pushing hydrogen in the US.

Because of the costs hydrogen won't happen in the large markets; the US and China.

That is an even more wasteful way to use energy than wireless charging for cars. It might work for sationary energy storage of excess renewables, but batteries are proving to be the economical answer there too.

Mercedes is no longer seeing it has they are shifting to BEVs.