Toyota Owners Jump Ship to Tesla

BEVs emit fewer green house gases over their lifetime than ICE cars. Even on grids powered mostly by coal, the BEV does far better than an equivalent car.

It is far easier to convert the grid to non-fossil fuels than it is an ICE car. It is going on right now. There are also avenues for the individual to reduce, or eliminate, the fossil fuel use for their electric.

BEVs won't work for everyone nor every application, but they can work for a lot. The hurdle isn't with the car, but with people's thinking. They are use to ICE cars, and new ideas and ways of doing things are difficult for many to accept. Most households have more than one car in the US, and use cycle of one of those cars very likely lines up with a BEV's capability. Then there is the thinking that a car needs to be able to do everything; the same reasoning that lead to people buying large SUVs with 4WD. A BEV requires a car choice being made under more realistic expectations on how the car is actually put to use.

That is where PHEVs come in. Giving people the chance to try a plug in without having to conquer any fears or concerns. Combined, BEVs and PHEVs will likely outsell hybrids next year.

Toyota was denying warranty coverage to people with proof of regular maintenance, and the problem disappeared after Toyota quietly made some design changes.

"Even when owners could prove they had followed the factory maintenance schedule and had their vehicles serviced at Toyota dealerships, the company still denied warranty claims.
...
But in the summer 2002, Toyota engineers changed the oil breathing system in the valve covers of the affected engines. A former Toyota service writer at a Midwest Toyota dealership said Toyota also increased the size of the passages inside the engine where the oil flows."
http://www.autonews.com/article/20071029/ANA03/710290343/oil-sludge-threatened-to-smear-a-good-name

Toyota is a good bet when looking for a reliable car, but they aren't a sure thing. Search the forums here and you will find people than have had issues with the Prius. From minor, my 2005 had loose exterior door trim, to nuisance, needing to clean carbon out from the gen3's EGR system, to major, inverter failures and stalling from a software bug.

PS: older engines can use synthetic oil. In fact, virtually all the synthetic oil in the US contains some amount of conventional oil.

 

Interesting, has there been any surveys of the percentage of Tesla being sold in California vs. the rest is the country and world? Is the incentive to buy and wait for a Tesla be the tax credits and use of HOV lanes? Once these go away, will there still be wait lists?

 

It appears as if Tesla, prior to the 3, sold about 20% of their cars in California.
Top-selling electric car in California is not a Tesla - San Francisco Chronicle

Now that the 3 is available, and especially since deliveries started in CA, that may increase a bit.
I expect the existence of the federal credit will have only a small affect on the wait lists.
The bigger factor will be Tesla’s production capacity.

 

This is not a detailed analysis, but the record of newly formed car companies (DeLorean, Bricklin, Vector, Corbin Sparrow, Fisker) just isn't that great, and in general more new companies fail than succeed. How about A123 batteries? The one recent-ish car company that is still in business and seems to be doing okay is Saleen, and if that isn't a small market specialty product I don't know what is.

Add in the debt and lack of cash flow and Tesla has some obstacles to overcome. Yes, I know they're re-investing to grow, but at some point they need to make money. You may have heard of Amazon? That's a company that put all its profits into growth, but they had actual *profits* to re-invest, and weren't depending on regular cash infusions from investors to keep the lights on.

You went too far suggesting Toyota will be out of business before Tesla. That ain't gonna happen. Now if you suggested that Tesla might be around when GM and the Bolt are no longer a going concern, then I might believe that. After all, GM has one more bankruptcy than Tesla.

All that said, I don't expect Tesla to disappear. Their battery technology and brand has way to much value. Maybe Toyota will spend some of its profits from selling Tundras to buy Tesla after the stock price crashes, and then you'll be able to buy a redesigned Model S with all the performance and Toyota quality. Too bad Toyota will also probably refresh the front and back ends to look like the Mirai

 

Empirical data for Tesla sales is difficult to come by because Elon tends to be quite secretive about those things. Therefore, most of the guesses are derived from anecdotal evidence. It is estimated that ~75% of sales are in the US with Norway evidently being the largest export country. Of US sales, InsideEvs estimated two years ago that ~45% were in California, followed by Florida ~7% and Texas ~6%. Now that the model 3 is in production, those numbers will be heavily skewed since most deliveries went to California first, then the rest of the US, and then a bunch to Canada. No one knows actual numbers for sure.

The incentive to purchase a Tesla because of incentives and/or HOV access is no more or less than it is for Toyota hybrid/Prime or any other maker hybrid/BEV. Once these go away, will there still be any reason to purchase Toyota hybrid/Prime other than some vague reputation for "reliability" which @bisco says he takes "with a grain of salt"? In my opinion, elimination of incentives will have no significant impact on any car maker, it certainly doesn't in the rest of the world.

With regards to Tesla sales and incentives, some on this forum argue that the model 3 price is a stretch for most people. If in fact, it is a stretch then those people aren't making enough to qualify for the full $7500 tax credit. Some on this forum argue that the model 3 is a rich man's car. If in fact it is, then those people aren't depending on a tax credit to afford the car. In conclusion, elimination of incentives will have little if any affect on Tesla sales. Tesla will be offering a lease option on the model 3 sometime next year. That "incentive" will put model 3 sales into orbit, right up there with the red roadster.

 

just consumer reports, to be fair. don't quote me out of context just cause i'm not drinking the kool aid with the jim jones gang.

 

if you make 50k a year, you are likely paying 10k in federal taxes, but likely not a tesla owner.

 

I think that’s a pretty good summary, but I’ll add that Toyota doesn’t really make any high-performance vehicles in particular. The Prius line is all-in-all lower-performance than some other Toyota models, but none of their lineup is even vaguely close to a Tesla. I suspect that some Toyota->Tesla folks are just looking for a little more excitement in their cars, with even less (arguably at least) environmental impact.

 

Those companies didn't have Elon Musk at the helm. Have you ever heard of Henry Ford? The buggy guys said the same thing about him!

Saleen, just down the road from me, is not a car maker from the manufacturing standpoint. They take other people's cars and modify them.

Tesla will be profitable by the end of Q3/18 which will make the naysayers very embarrassed!

I am much older than you, and I remember the history of Amazon very well! In the beginning, they were unprofitable for several years. They had a worse reputation for long term viability than Tesla! Well, that prediction didn't work out so well either!

What I said was, "I think there is a greater likelihood of Tesla being in business in 10 years than Toyota being in business in 10 year (at the current rate they are innovating)!" You are misrepresenting what I said.

Now you are just baiting. In my opinion, there is a greater likelihood of Tesla buying Toyota in about 10 years when Tesla introduces the PickemUp.....unless Toyota can get its act together. Tundra sales will crash and burn especially with gasoline prices approaching $10/gal. at that time

 

If you believe that, you need to have a talk with your accountant!

 

first i need an accountant.

 

What other statistics do you have?

 

With the statement you made above, that is obvious!

 

i don't need statistics to buy a car.

 

It be close to that if you also count payroll taxes, but then the plug in tax credit can't off set those. Under last year's tax code, and taking just the standard deduction, the tax amount is a little over $5600.

Considering the rate of battery improvements, I don't think any manufacturer is worried about the loss of credits aside from lower margins.

 

wow, 11% effective rate? i am surprised. is that married filing jointly? how much would you have to make to pay $7,500.?

 

It is difficult to say, what with changing Federal tax policy and specific individual circumstances (e.g. married or single), but most say around $80K per year gross.

 

i suppose depending on where you live, you might be able to pull one off at that income level. around here, most of it would go to housing. i suppose one could live in it though.

 

Then why not purchase a Tesla and help save the planet? (that is a rhetorical question, no need to reply because it is obvious you are a science denier)

 

My dear wife and I lived in a 10 x 20 thatched hut for two years of our lives (Peace Corps) once upon a time. Living in a car can be done. Just ask a homeless person.